Crypto_猫哥
推特同名@Crypto_猫哥 币圈八年老韭菜 擅长抓二级妖币、一级金狗带群友吃了几千X的$Pnut、$Goat 挑战1WU到100WU 点点关注、关注必回
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$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
Conclusion first
We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30%
Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB
If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP
Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation
I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back
Let's all get rich together
$BTC
Summary:
Following the previous analysis, the short-term rise has temporarily paused, starting to oscillate and slightly pull back.
Price Projection:
The price will fluctuate between 76793-77794, with a possible break below 76300 followed by a rebound.
Previous Projection:
After the price range of 72182-72477, it continued to rise, with the first target at 73110; after breaking this, the high point will reach the resistance at 75000.
Actual Price Movement:
After breaking above 79000, it pulled back and is currently fluctuating around 77000.
Future Trend:
Chip vacuum
Short-term remains a bullish attack.
Mid-term bullish attack, but after touching the historical bearish zone 79350-80275, it pulled back; support below is at 75733-76259. If 75733 holds, the trend continues upward.
Long-term is also a bullish attack.
According to this indicator, as long as 75733 holds, the upward trend continues.
Price Channel
Volume-weighted short-term average price is 72550, upper limit 90100, lower limit 63180.
Volume-weighted mid-term average price is 69620, upper limit 79270, lower limit 59370.
Volume-weighted long-term average price is 69050, upper limit 93760, lower limit 59160.
Short- and mid-term changes are significant; the three short-term lines have all risen. The current price is above the 72550 moving average, indicating an upward trend. On a pullback, the position to watch is also 72550. The mid-term upper limit has changed rapidly, from 77700 to 79270. Previously, this upper limit suppressed the price; now with this change, the upper limit will be at 79270.
To be honest
I wouldn't dare to play like this even with my Happy Beans
By the way, does this level have no transaction fees?
Can any expert explain it?
jasonleo
The market moved quickly today, and I didn't have time to open a post, so here is an update on the current short position.
1. After the previous short position ended, I re-entered a short around 76000.
The logic is actually quite simple.
When I established a long position near 63000, the phase target was originally 74000. I believed the bull market had returned, and that judgment has not changed.
However, I have always thought this round should be a consolidation upward, not a direct surge to 84000 or even 90000 without any pullback.
At least from the macro and market structure perspective, I have not yet seen enough signals to support such a move.
So I shorted again around 76000.
After opening the position, the price quickly surged to a high of 79500 in a short time. The planned stop loss was not executed as expected (stop loss was set in advance, but the system did not fill).
2. I have now reduced most of the short positions.
Not because I have changed my judgment, but to control risk first.
If the price continues to spike extremely here, 82000 or 84000 are possible, so there is no need to bet the full position on being absolutely right.
The remaining position will continue to be observed.
If the daily candle closes effectively above 80500, I will admit I was wrong on this trade, close all positions, and take a break.
If it still cannot hold here and weakens again, I will consider adding back the reduced short positions.
I am not interested in chasing longs at this level for now; the risk-reward ratio is no longer favorable.
3. Finally, a word on my big picture.
Last month near 63000, I clearly stated this was a phase bottom.
That judgment has not changed.
I still have a medium to long-term bullish view on BTC, but being bullish long-term and shorting locally are not contradictory.
This short position is a bet on a pullback during the upward process, not a renewed bearish view here.
If I am wrong, I will admit it above 80500.
If I am right, I will continue to execute according to plan.
I still believe that by March next year, we will see BTC at 100,000.
$BTC
The biggest wave of the bull market has ended
This account went from 10,000 to 24,000, and will stop trading for now
Making money in a bull market is not your skill, it's the market
Holding on is your skill!
Did anyone lose money shorting this wave? Or missed the ride?
Leave an address, and I'll randomly send some money
$BTC
Views after the $BTC pump, a brief discussion.
1) Currently, 80-83 is the most effective resistance level, which is the position the bears need to defend.
If this level is broken, the major daily low is formed, and the outlook turns bullish. It might be hard to see BTC starting with 6 again.
2) If 80-83 is rejected, the key level to watch is around eq 715.
That means if the price oscillates and slowly dips to test this support, then bulls should continue, and the price is expected to move upward.
If it sharply drops below and rejects further upward movement here, there is a chance for new lows to form.
$BTC
The bulls are back, but it doesn't mean the bull market has arrived yet, so don't rush. Many friends have recently asked me if the bull market is here. After a prolonged six-month period of gradual decline and consolidation ($60,000–$64,000), new short-term funds entering the market are collectively at a loss, and bullish confidence is nearly shattered. Just a few days ago, stimulated by the U.S. Treasury's unexpectedly doubled repurchase of U.S. bonds, prices broke through the STH cost base near $72,000 with strong volume, surging all the way to $80,000. These are all short-term news-driven stimuli; don't assume the bull market has started, but the bulls have indeed returned. Once the price stabilizes above $72,000 as it has recently (watch for pullbacks), all these short-term holders will see their positions turn profitable on paper. In on-chain behavior, their mindset will instantly switch from "desperately seeking to break even" to "holding coins waiting for gains." So, the key is to see how far the pullback goes; as long as $72,000 holds, breaking through $83,000 is only a matter of time.
$BTC
These past couple of days, I've really been stunned by Bitcoin's rally. Several key resistance levels I previously considered have all been trampled underfoot. The bull-bear transition zone was strongly broken through. Looking at the weekly chart, the only thing that might still hold is the weekly SMA50. If the SMA50 is effectively broken, it will turn from a resistance line into a key support line in the bull market!
Bitcoin usually respects the weekly SMA50 and sells off a bit there. This time, we'll just quietly observe. If it hits resistance and pulls back to the bull-bear transition zone without breaking it, that will be a right-side opportunity to add to positions!
$BTC
Bitcoin surged past $77,000 today, reaching a high of 77,678, with a daily increase of over 6%.
What was the cost? Nearly $3 billion vanished into thin air, over 170,000 traders were liquidated, with shorts accounting for 92% — marking the largest single-day short liquidation record in nearly two years.
On Hyperliquid, a giant whale holding a short position of 1,800 bitcoins, worth $117 million, lost it all.
Some data to feel it: BTC rose over 20% cumulatively in 5 trading days, hitting a new high since May 27; over $1 billion in shorts were forcefully liquidated within an hour; the total liquidation amount across the network neared $3 billion.
From just above $60,000, a V-shaped reversal wiped out all the shorts accumulated over several months.
Brothers who shorted at $60,000, are you still alive now?
$BTC
This sudden and rapid pump with no signs and no retracement suggests one possibility: too many short positions have accumulated, leading to a short squeeze.
BTC short positions accumulated about 58.36 billion U
ETH short positions accumulated about 32.22 billion U
(Data source: Coinglass on 8.21)
• Total: about 90.58 billion USD.
Currently, the number of long positions across the entire platform is also rapidly increasing. Be cautious, don't chase longs too aggressively.
$BTC
Bitcoin is really strong; last time I said it would break the 70,000 level, and it happened within minutes. This time I said it would reach the target zone of 75,000~78,000, and it just got there. At this point, guessing the top or looking for reasons behind the rise is pointless. Shorting still requires waiting; you can't be reckless. Many people might be afraid of heights and hesitant to go long, so overcoming the fear of missing out is key. If you didn't get in, then don't; observing and learning isn't a bad thing.
Sometimes simple math is the most straightforward. This was proven effective when calculating SpaceX's stock top and bottom before. 6.25×1.2=7.5, meaning even 5x leverage has already been liquidated. If 3x leverage gets liquidated, the target price would be above 80,000. As I said yesterday, from a chip perspective, there's actually little resistance below 80,000. Whether the final price reaches that, I don't know; we'll see as it goes. After all, once Bitcoin starts moving, the pace will be very fast
$BTC
Bitcoin Caige Replica Series: Mayer Multiple indicator crosses above the blue line, signaling a reversal is coming.
The Mayer Multiple is a very classic on-chain Bitcoin indicator.
Historically, as long as it is in the bottom-finding phase, it will not cross above the blue line; but once it crosses above the blue line, it indicates the arrival of the bottom and a reversal.
Many experts say Bitcoin will still drop below 50,000, 30,000, 20,000. So I suggest everyone avoid Bitcoin and follow these experts' great guidance.
