诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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What is $DOOD, why has it surged so high, and can it continue to rise?
1. It is the token of the Doodles NFT project, launched in May last year, with a total supply of 10 billion and about 7.8 billion in circulation. 30% was airdropped to NFT holders. Usually, this is a "quiet small-cap coin," but today it exploded.
2. It doubled in one day, with a 24h trading volume of 200 million, which is 6.6 times its market cap turnover.
This is purely an emotional play. Two core drivers:
Korean Upbit leading the trend: DOOD had a single-day trading volume exceeding 100 million on Upbit, accounting for about 10% of the entire exchange's volume at that time, making it the most actively traded coin on the exchange—a typical Korean retail investor speculation.
Social media suddenly exploded: AltRank soared from 761 to 10, Galaxy Score from 59 to 93.2, with 142,000 posts and 82,000 interactions in 24h, igniting FOMO.
This is a pure squeeze of low circulating supply + Korean buying pressure + social media fermentation, not a fundamental-driven market.
Currently, the 1-hour RSI is 87.4, indicating severe overbought conditions; the top 10 addresses hold 70.6% concentration (high chip concentration, easy to dump), and the Gate.io order book is still thin. Chasing the high is like catching a flying knife.
STRK, NEAR, and BCH are all considered niche tokens, yet they have been targeted one by one by traditional finance:
$NEAR has risen above all moving averages (50-day at 4.06, 200-day at 2.36), but the MACD histogram has converged to 0, the daily RSI is neutral at 56, and despite a 9.45% price surge, open interest (OI) has dropped by 1.44%. A valid breakout depends on surpassing the 5.43 resistance.
$BCH has also risen above the 7-day (279.74) and 50-day (277.74) moving averages but is capped by the 20-day (287.98) and 200-day (292.44) moving averages overhead. EMA12 is below EMA26, the MACD negative histogram has also returned to zero, and RSI is neutral at 51.6. In the short term, it is stuck between the 281 support and the 292 long-term moving average.
$STRK has halved from the October high of 0.125 down to around 0.057, breaking below the short moving average resistance at 0.063 and currently defending the critical blue moving average at 0.053. RSI has cooled from overbought 80+ to neutral 48. The structure is weak ahead of the October 22 quantum resistance L1 governance vote deadline, with 0.046 as secondary support below.
The market is rebounding, how will several mainstream platform tokens $BNB, $OKB, and $HYPE perform:
BNB is hitting a triple resistance wall formed by the 20-day moving average (749), 50-day moving average (751), and the immediate resistance level at 750. Although it is above the 200-day moving average (649) indicating a solid mid-to-long-term structure, the RSI at 50.1 is neutral, the MACD histogram is at zero indicating a turning point, and the open interest (OI) is decreasing by 1.11% during the rise. In the short term, it is stuck below this wall waiting for direction.
HYPE's speculative sentiment has cooled down; the daily RSI is 42, indicating weak neutrality. The price has fallen below the 21-day moving average (85) and 50-day moving average (85.8) but remains above the 200-day moving average (64.3). The short-term support is at 78. OI is as high as 1.88 billion with a slightly negative funding rate. After falling about 17% from the high of 97.96, it shows a corrective structure.
OKB lacks ecological benefits for now; the 14-day RSI is 64, slightly soft neutral. The price has fallen below the 50-day moving average (118) but holds above the 200-day moving average (93.6) and the daily EMA50. The MACD shows a death cross with expanding negative histogram bars. Strong support is seen at 108, resistance at 118.6. The bullish trend is under pressure and currently in a correction and consolidation phase.
+161.04 USDT
+55.87%Snapshot at Oct 21, 2026, 21:55
How will the major mainstream coins move next?
$BTC rose today, breaking above the 20-day EMA (83177), 50-day EMA (80769), and 200-day EMA (76090). The daily RSI is neutral at 51, the MACD histogram has returned to zero (bearish momentum is fading but hasn't turned bullish), and it is short-term capped at the 83600 options call wall resistance.
$ETH is clearly weaker than BTC, with a daily RSI(14) at 31 indicating weakness. Resistance is at 2490 above, support at 2380 below. Before breaking below 2380, this level can be considered the boundary between bullish and bearish.
$SOL has held the 7-day line (105.05) but is capped by a dense moving average wall at 110 (SMA50 109.63, SMA20 110.50). The daily RSI is neutral to slightly weak at 44, the MACD histogram also returned to zero, the long-term 200-day line (88.01) is far below, and the near-term support is at 105.24.
+266.17 USDT
+28.67%Snapshot at Oct 21, 2026, 20:42
The hotspot center of this round of memes is no longer $DOGE Dogecoin. Funds have shifted from buying for fun to buying logic and narrative:
1. Institutionalization of DOGE is receding, but a new story has yet to be found. On the 9th, DogeOS testnet went live, expanding into DeFi scenarios.
Of course, its market cap is still the leader in the sector, rising only 6% in 30 days, maintaining its leading position and premium.
2. $PEPE is quietly emerging due to derivative demand. The daily technicals are much stronger, with the price above all 8 moving averages and the 50-day moving average, daily RSI at 61, and 4-hour RSI already hitting the overbought zone at 70.
Kalshi applied to the CFTC on October 6 for PEPE perpetual futures (though withdrawn two days later), indicating that traditional prediction markets are eyeing its volatility.
3. $TRUMP's technicals are bearish, with the current price below the 50-day (2.02) and 200-day moving averages, daily RSI only 41, MACD showing a green bar, and a downward daily trend.
This is basically the worst political meme. It dropped 14.2% in 30 days, and the team's continuous token fund extraction is suppressing the price, making it the harshest example among memes.
Should we short the contract token Axis Token ($AXIS) at 10 o'clock later?
1. The selling pressure at the project launch is not high, shorting is not recommended: total token supply is 1 billion, 1% was airdropped to a neighboring project, 0.3% given to OKX Boost, 0.2% to an old partner, 0.25% to a mouthpiece, and 1% sold in the public sale.
2. The public sale was last month, but initially no one bought, only 50,000 USDT sold. Later the founder got anxious and told everyone that participating in the public sale would get a bonus reward and that there would be a floor price guarantee.
Also, they probably privately found 7 big buyers who bought at least 20,000 USDT each, eventually selling out the public sale quota, even oversubscribed.
3. The project's initial circulating supply is 16.5%, the remaining 83.5% is locked by the neighboring exchange. Projects that hand over locked tokens to exchanges for supervision usually lack strength and reputation.
4. The project claims to have raised 12 million, but I feel this is fake. Projects that can get this kind of funding wouldn’t have a cold public sale and need to promise a floor price to sell out; nor would they hand over locked tokens to Binance for supervision.
Currently opening at 0.35 USDT, those who participated in the public sale can basically break even by selling unlocked tokens, so it’s unlikely to pump soon.
But shorting is not recommended, since the project team still controls the market strongly and might trap short sellers.
Besides BTC, which high-beta tokens will this wave of returning funds flow into? Is it ETH, SOL, or XRP?
They are all extremely sensitive to interest rates and liquidity, serving as thermometers for large-cap funds with complete ETF and contract channels:
1. $ETH is the most passive because its EMA20 is at 2498, EMA50 at 2481, and the price at 2450 is stuck below the short- and mid-term moving averages.
Only breaking above EMA50 counts as a strength shift, but it has recently been heavily sold off by institutions, with ETFs seeing net outflows 14 out of the last 15 days, reflecting very poor market sentiment.
2. $SOL is actively seeking catalysts, but recently large whales have reduced positions, likely because the mainnet positive news has turned into a negative. Also, SkyAI sold off 1 million tokens, and contract open interest is topped at 6.79 billion.
So despite technical catalysts, this kind of reduction structure suggests it probably won't lead the rally in the near term.
3. On the contrary, $XRP has recently been favored by institutions, with 7 ETFs accumulating nearly $1.8 billion in net inflows, marking 11 consecutive weeks of net inflows.
Moreover, RLUSD circulation is $2.44 billion, accounting for 82% of XRPL stablecoins, showing quite strong market demand. I actually think it might be the one to attract institutional funds first. #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限
+12.30%
Snapshot at Oct 21, 2026, 17:20
HYPE, ASTER, and $UNI are all "trade-to-earn" DEX platform tokens, but the sentiment around their funds is vastly different. $HYPE is being aggressively leveraged, while $ASTER is so cold that even speculators avoid it.
1. HYPE's positions are the most solid. On Hyperliquid, the open interest of HYPE perpetual contracts is $1.58 billion, and across the entire market, it's $3.28 billion. The funding rate has turned positive, indicating the market is bullish.
This is the DEX leader with the strongest fundamentals; as long as the 78 support level holds, it remains in an uptrend.
2. UNI is just opening as an institutional short entry, and large-scale funds haven't flowed in yet. But it is historically the first DeFi governance token listed on CME, with a real fundamental base of $44 billion in 30-day trading volume for v4.
Since the institutional compliant short channel has just opened, don't rush; wait until the 6.74 support is tested before making moves.
3. ASTER is the coldest for speculation. The open interest is only $93.54 million, a fraction of HYPE's; the funding rate is about zero, showing no one is paying attention.
Especially since the project team unlocked 500 million USDT worth of tokens at the beginning of the month, and no buyers dare to take them.
+21.86%
Snapshot at Oct 21, 2026, 16:31
I see some people hyping up the issue of "Microsoft and 16 other companies opposing the tokenization of their stocks on OKXICE," using this to bash $OKB.
Everyone, don't worry, this is completely a misunderstanding:
1. The 16 companies are opposing the tokenization of their own stocks, not opposing OKXICE. They also oppose tokenized trading on $BNB and Robinhood.
2. Their opposition is normal and a reasonable market reaction because it not only offers them no benefits but also easily causes trouble:
(1) This is not good for their stocks: if stocks are put on-chain, shareholder voting might get complicated; plus, their company names could be used directly by others, and they would have to bear the compliance explanation costs for on-chain tokenization, which is very troublesome.
(2) It easily causes trouble: the industry lacks regulation, so if on-chain tokens lose their peg and hurt investors, the token issuers make money while their own investors suffer losses, which they definitely don't want.
So essentially, this matter has nothing to do with OKXICE. Other platforms ignore their stance and just use the tokens; listed companies have no accountability mechanisms;
But now OKXICE wants to be more compliant, so they proactively asked for their stance, and the other side just expressed their position.
This is actually a good thing. Communication and discussion lead to solutions, which is the foundation for long-term stable asset tokenization. Otherwise, it might be like the last $SPCX IPO, where everyone was ready with money, but they didn't give the crypto industry a share, which would be even more embarrassing.
+55.13%
Snapshot at Oct 21, 2026, 15:04
Why do I say this rebound is purely emotional, driven up only by short squeeze? Besides theoretical analysis, we can directly look at market data:
1. Last night, 73,000 people were liquidated across the market, yet $BTC trading volume actually dropped by 1.96%, meaning this was a low-volume rebound without buying support. Shorts liquidated last night amounted to 191 million, accounting for 70%, indicating that the buying from forced short covering dominated last night.
From a technical perspective, the coin price is still suppressed below the MA20 at 83108, and RSI is only 45.6. In the options market, put volume is more than twice that of calls, showing that people don’t believe this rally will last; it’s just a short squeeze driven by sentiment.
2. $ETH is even more so. Among last night’s liquidations, ETH’s liquidation volume was even higher than BTC’s, with shorts liquidated at 65%. Technically, its RSI is only 36.3 and still far below the MA20 at 2522, indicating very low market sentiment. Spot buying is even less, with ETFs seeing a net outflow of over 100 million yesterday.
3. Only $ZEC is slightly better, surging 10% yesterday with a volume increase to 111 million. This is likely because the market pulled back after three previous bottom tests, using up most of the available buying power, so last night’s rise was relatively easy.
But the key is whether it can hold above the 50-day moving average at 1270. If it holds, it could push up to 1350.
+27.46%
Snapshot at Oct 21, 2026, 12:04