老哥,老哥

老哥,老哥

看懂商业和资本,也看懂我们的生活。 2017年入行。

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老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
Bitcoin surged to 75,000, and KOLs started shouting that the bull market is here, while retail investors began to get hyped. Jim Cramer desperately urged viewers to buy Bitcoin on his show, but he himself sold off all his BTC. Wall Street has been playing this same act for decades without change. When the media pushes retail investors' emotions to the peak, that's often when big players quietly rotate their positions, shake out weak hands, and escape. In the market, you need to look against the grain not only at indicators but also at the flow of funds behind the news. Seeing the drama queens come out to perform again, we have to ask ourselves: who exactly is waiting for you to take the bag?
老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
It's not surprising that Tether wants to go public on the US stock market via a reverse merger. Since it can't get listed itself due to regulatory and audit issues, it bought NovaBay, renamed it, and simultaneously acquired and pledged USDS. This move not only secured a pass to the NYSE but also opened traditional financial credit channels. The deeper reason is to seek security. After all, USDT is centralized and can be regulated at any time. Holding over 9% control of USDS is like installing a hidden “shadow vault” for itself in the decentralized arena. After making enough money, what giants care about most is still security. The words "decentralized" can really be life-saving in critical moments. Have you properly protected your own assets?
老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
Brother Sun forcibly kept the lawsuit with WLFI in the federal public court, the public litigation mechanism is still quite different from private arbitration. This means that all subsequent internal documents, code logic, and even governance decisions may have to be exposed in public. Bringing the case to the federal court for public trial is equivalent to obtaining a compliant pass to subpoena evidence. So where does the confidence for this counterattack come from? Honestly, I still haven't figured out why Sun insists on clashing with the Trump family. My guesses: 1. Either he has taken the side of Trump's main opponent 2. Or he is using the lawsuit to continue marketing, losing the lawsuit but indirectly gaining benefits, achieving three goals at once 3. Someone domestically supports him, using his hard stance as a bargaining chip for something? Brother Sun bringing the lawsuit to the federal court for public trial is definitely not a rash decision; there must be calculations of interests, political alignment, or marketing considerations behind it.
老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
Have you ever thought that attracting wealth works on the same principle as buying a lottery ticket? It equally requires you to first break through the collective consciousness limitations within your heart. Since childhood, we've been indoctrinated with an idea: Getting rich isn’t that easy, Stop dreaming, honest work is the right path. The lottery is a scam, it’s already controlled. So you’ll find that only a very, very few people dare to believe they deserve more wealth, and in the end, they truly seize the opportunity. This is called: Preparation before wealth arrives, letting wealth actively come closer to you. What limits your wealth is not the lack of opportunity, But that deep down you feel this good fortune isn’t meant for you.
老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
HYPE was named by Trump, and the coin price surged 14% in just two hours. Don't forget, he previously endorsed 8 coins that on average dropped 60%. But this time it's a bit different, with the CFTC regulatory agency following up to promote compliance implementation. However, verbal statements do not equal formal approval. Whether the regulatory process can be implemented depends on the results of subsequent meetings. Trump and the CFTC are trying to define a compliance path for Hyperliquid, which is actually a pipeline to bring DEX derivatives and real protocol revenues into the US capital market. Because HYPE is simply too impressive and too profitable. Americans cannot afford to miss it. Of course, this also shows that the capital struggle behind it is extremely brutal. Next up is the traditional altcoin model being cleared out, with compliant derivatives becoming the new hunting ground for capital. Don't touch altcoins! Don't touch altcoins!
老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
X rewards creators with USDC, can you handle that? This is X bypassing traditional banking and building a decentralized finance closed loop. Doing this keeps the profits within the platform's crypto ecosystem, minimizing capital outflow. Next, stablecoin earnings will also begin, and licensing will definitely be required later; various licenses will become valuable. But withdrawals will definitely be audited later, including taxes, haha. This is laying the foundational clearing pipeline for the super app Everything App (universal app) that he keeps talking about. Taking the power to distribute money into their own hands, and even completing the closed loop of creator tipping, subscriptions, and consumption directly on the platform in the future. Once everyone gets used to sending and receiving money with USDC on X, Wall Street and traditional banks' payment channels will become mere onlookers. Elon Musk ultimately wants to build X into a super digital life portal integrating social, news, video, payments, and financial clearing, similar to WeChat's all-in-one form. Meta is already testing similar features on a small scale. Creators and cross-border workers are likely to be the first involved. The ultimate goal is to run the money pipeline business. Whether it succeeds depends on how much user traffic X has and how much profit there is, but later the earnings from holding U will probably be banned, so why would people use your pipeline then?
老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
In the endgame of great power competition, it all depends on who can package the debt crisis as "financial innovation." That's exactly what Basset is doing now. Buying back old long-term bonds with soaring yields, crazily issuing short-term debt to fill the gaps, ostensibly controlling yields, but in reality, it's a time bomb being postponed, giving the long-end rates a painkiller shot. That's why gold and BTC are the real bullish chips in this house of cards. The more fiat currency is printed and devalued, the higher the value of hard currency. Don't get carried away by the bullish calls on X in this rally. This rise is just riding the emotional dividend; when the US stock market crashes, BTC will also suffer liquidity bleeding first and only rebound after liquidity is injected. Can you really hold on for a long-term cycle of five to ten years? Buying Bitcoin is fine, be patient and endure, don't be blindly confident. Do you think Basset needs sleeping pills to fall asleep?
老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
Bitcoin has bounced back to 70,000, and the group chat is once again shouting "Trump is awesome." But honestly, don’t take his talk too seriously. The real force behind the market rally is actually the Treasury quietly pumping liquidity through U.S. debt to support the market. That old fox Trump is very clever; he conveniently packages the macro liquidity injection as if his words alone lifted the crypto market, taking all the credit for himself to boost his election votes. This political play is truly impressive. But on the other hand, when sovereign nations start considering using Bitcoin to cover their debt black holes, this game is no longer just ordinary crypto speculation. You think you’re buying a coin? What you’re really buying is a bet on the collapse of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. dollar credit system. Just watch, Trump will definitely come up with more tricks to win votes, so riding the short-term waves is fine. But to be clear, if you look at the underlying logic, the market sentiment and capital flow haven’t fundamentally changed. Think about it logically: if the U.S. dollar is failing but Bitcoin is doing well, can Trump really pull in votes?
老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
Never blindly call for short or long positions. Take a look at the logic behind Wall Street's famous short-seller Jim Chanos calling to short MSTR. While calling to short MSTR, he is simultaneously going long on BTC. The key point is: the profit comes from the relative premium of the stock over BTC falling. Let me explain it in simple terms. MSTR is being hyped up unrealistically, for example at 130, while he previously targeted 100, which is much higher than the real value of the Bitcoin it holds. He does two things: 1. Bet that MSTR will cool down, borrow shares to sell them short 2. At the same time, buy Bitcoin as protection Later, when the market calms down, the bubble portion of MSTR's price disappears. Even if Bitcoin's price stays flat, the short sale of MSTR nets a 30-point profit. Buying Bitcoin is to prevent a huge surge that would blow up the short position on MSTR. The profit comes from the disappearance of MSTR's hype bubble, without betting on whether Bitcoin goes up or down. A friendly reminder: retail investors should not imitate this. Simply shorting MSTR alone can lead to severe losses if there's a strong rally.
老哥,老哥
老哥,老哥
Logically, when Bitcoin rebounds, Saylor should be bragging again, but this time he poured cold water on it, reminding everyone to prepare for tough times ahead and to take a 7-10 year perspective. Surprising, right? There are two main reasons: 1. MSTR surged 12%, but its stock price is very volatile; it outperforms BTC when rising, but crashes harder than the coin when falling. 2. This rebound is just a correction; the burden of the financing structure still hangs over it, meaning the heavily leveraged stock problem of MSTR remains unresolved and cannot be resolved. In plain terms, they are playing hardcore financial leverage, and if it goes wrong, it’s deadly. This stock acts as a highly leveraged amplifier: when Bitcoin rises, it soars with it; when Bitcoin falls, it crashes harder than anyone else. Previously, he could sell stock at gold-level prices, using the high price to raise money to buy Bitcoin at low prices, essentially freeloading on the market premium. Now that financing scheme no longer works, so he can’t just lie back and keep leveraging to buy coins. Remember, 7-10 years—after going through it, will this man become rational, or is he just giving an early warning? Can you hold on for 10 years?