交易员刺客
交易员刺客
刺客社区创始人，绿洲大学联合创始人，香港web3协会会员，新加坡区块链中文大使，推特华语区块链头部KOL，著名kol“飞哥定投策略”老师，2024年okx交易嘉年华第一名，2016年开始布道区块链。2026年打算完成8个挑战，3个挑战500到5wu，3个挑战4w到10wu，2个挑战1000到10wu。
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Yesterday 84000 short $BTC
Held on until the end
Currently 81800
Currently 2200 points
This is trust
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The only disciple @飞哥定投策略
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
With the FOMC meeting approaching, the market now prices in a 92.8% chance of a "pause in rate hikes," which is almost a sure bet. But after carefully examining the data in this chart, I found that things aren't that simple.
Everyone is celebrating the pause, but don't overlook the bigger picture. Initial jobless claims have dropped to 194,000, nearing multi-year lows, indicating that the U.S. economy is very resilient and not in recession at all. With such a strong economy and inflation pressures still present, why would the Fed immediately turn dovish? The community insight in the chart hits the nail on the head: a pause does not mean tightening is over; high interest rates still firmly suppress risk assets.
However, there is some good news in the short term: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below 5%. This is a rare breather for overvalued tech stocks and crypto assets, and BTC's slight 0.4% rise now is supported by this logic.
The core variable now is not whether rates will be hiked or not, but the "tone" of the Fed officials during the meeting. If they package the "pause" as a "hawkish pause," continue to emphasize inflation risks in the statement, and leave the door open for a rate hike in December, it will definitely be a blow to the market.
In terms of strategy, I absolutely would not bet on a one-sided move at this time. The 92.8% expectation means that if a pause is indeed announced, it could easily trigger a "good news already priced in" pullback. $BTC
+2.07K
+166.31%Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 11:36
$ZEC volatility is a bit high, is anyone still awake? Let's do a few trades together before sleeping
$BTC is about to bottom after a five-wave decline! Public layout! BTC long positions!
BTC really gave the chance to drop to 78888, at this level I will enter without hesitation to go long.
The reason is solid. Technically, 78888 just lands on the strong support zone repeatedly tested between 78000 and 79000. From 81600, it has been panic selling all the way down, short-term is seriously oversold, bearish momentum is basically exhausted, and a retaliatory technical rebound could happen anytime. Using a stop loss space of over a thousand points to bet on a rebound of more than two thousand points, the risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
On the capital side, the risk-off selling before the FOMC meeting has already created room. The average holding cost of treasury institutions is above 80,000; the current price dropping here means giving big funds an excellent opportunity to buy the dip. The spot buying below will most likely come out to support the bottom.
My position method is simple. Build long positions in batches near 78888, with a strict stop loss at 77500. As long as it effectively breaks below this level, it means the 80,000 defense line has completely collapsed, I will unconditionally admit defeat and exit, never holding the position.
Targets are viewed in batches: the first target is 80500, at which point I will close out more than half of the position to lock in profits. The remaining small position will see if it can reach back to 81600. For every 500-point price increase, the stop loss will be raised by 300 points.
Position size is controlled between 10% to 15%, with leverage up to 3x. The current market is an opportunity created by the drop; when the level is reached, I will enter according to discipline, take profits and run, without any emotion.
+3.11K
+249.85%Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 02:06
Live trading challenge from 30,000u to 100,000u current status:
New high today
Current return rate 88%
Profit 28,000u
Still 2,000u short of the first doubling
Trading method: compound interest strategy
Currently holding BTC$BTC short position
+3.06K
+245.26%Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 01:05
Thoughts on $BTC going forward:
BTC dropped to 81600, the bearish trend has already emerged, and now I absolutely will not blindly bottom-fish.
The FOMC meeting is about to start, safe-haven funds are retreating, and the 82000 to 82500 range above is full of trapped chips, creating heavy resistance. The 80,000 round number below is the last short-term cover; once broken, it will likely test the previous low around 78000.
My next operation plan is straightforward, preparing two approaches:
First, wait for a rebound to meet resistance and short. If the price rebounds to the 82000 to 82300 range and shows volume expansion with stagnation or a long upper shadow, I will short directly. Stop loss at 82800, target first at 80500, if broken then 80000.
Second, if it breaks the key level, follow the trend to short. If the price breaks 80000 with volume, I won’t hesitate to chase shorts, stop loss at 80500, target straight to 78000.
As for long positions, I absolutely won’t touch them now. Unless it can stabilize with low volume sideways above 80,000, or directly plunge near 78000, then I might consider light trial positions. Stop loss strictly at 77000.
In this market, cash is bullets. Execute the plan, no emotions, don’t shoot until you see the rabbit.
+3.13K
+188.18%Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 00:25
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The FOMC meeting from October 27 to 28 is approaching, and the Federal Reserve has now entered a pre-meeting quiet period. I took a glance at the market, and BTC has already dropped 3.22%, indicating that funds are moving to hedge in advance.
The market currently looks extremely optimistic, with the latest pricing showing over an 80% probability that rates will remain unchanged in October. Everyone thinks the Fed will hold steady this time.
But I have to pour cold water on that. Don’t be fooled by this 80% probability; take a closer look at the underlying data. Both the US CPI and PPI for September exceeded expectations, and inflationary pressure has not eased at all. Some economists have already warned that persistently high inflation could cause uncertainty in the October decision. Waller’s previous stance was ambiguous, refusing to predict future decisions or hint whether rates will be raised or not. This is leaving room for maneuver.
In short, a pause does not mean the end of tightening. The stranglehold of high interest rates is still firmly in place. Even if there is truly no rate hike in October, as long as inflation doesn’t come down, long-term US Treasury yields will remain elevated. In this environment, interest-free assets like crypto will continue to have suppressed appeal.
The current market has already priced in this concern. The 80% no-rate-hike expectation is fully priced by the market; if a pause is indeed announced in October, it would be a fulfillment of expectations, which may not leave much room for upside and could even trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" sell-off. $BTC
+2.74K
+164.99%Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 21:28
