交易员刺客
交易员刺客
刺客社区创始人，绿洲大学联合创始人，香港web3协会会员，新加坡区块链中文大使，推特华语区块链头部KOL，著名kol“飞哥定投策略”老师，2024年okx交易嘉年华第一名，2016年开始布道区块链。2026年打算完成8个挑战，3个挑战500到5wu，3个挑战4w到10wu，2个挑战1000到10wu。
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Yesterday 84000 short $BTC
Held on until the end
Currently 81800
Currently 2200 points
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The only disciple @飞哥定投策略
#Middle East crude oil supply risks rise again, oil prices continue to strengthen
$BZ $CL
The crude oil market is really headache-inducing. Data clearly shows that transportation volume in the Persian Gulf has exceeded pre-conflict levels, and the Strait of Hormuz has recovered more than 80%. Logically, supply shouldn't be so tight, yet Brent crude stubbornly broke through $114 despite the bearish news, hitting a five-month high.
Why? Because the money is not speculating on the current spot market, but on extreme fear of the future. Oil tankers are frequently attacked, and new military actions could break out at any time. This Damocles sword of potential supply cuts hangs overhead, and the risk premium on crude oil simply cannot be suppressed. Everyone is betting that as long as the conflict doesn't completely end, oil prices can still surge.
This is definitely bad news for our BTC. With oil prices rising like this, inflation expectations will be reignited immediately. If inflation doesn't come down, the Federal Reserve will never dare to ease interest rates lightly, and may even have to maintain high rates longer. Macro liquidity continues to be drained, and high-volatility risk assets like crypto will be the first to be suppressed. Now BTC is struggling near the 80,000 mark, facing heavy resistance above. This oil price surge directly worsens the macro environment.
In terms of trading, don't try to guess the top of crude oil. My current focus is firmly on BTC's 80,000 defense line. If it breaks down with volume, follow the trend short to profit from long liquidations; if it stabilizes above 80,000 with low volume, I will consider lightly buying long. Under macro pressure from geopolitical factors, absolutely do not blindly bottom-fish. Preserve capital, cash is king.
Last night, the US stock market was a tale of two extremes. The Nasdaq dropped 2.6%, with six of the seven tech giants falling and only one rising. Meta was hammered nearly 7%, and Nvidia fell 4.4%. Funds all fled to buy Procter & Gamble and Lockheed Martin as safe havens...
Last night, the US stock market was a tale of two extremes. The Nasdaq plunged 2.6%, with six of the seven tech giants down and only one up; Meta was hammered nearly 7%, and Nvidia fell 4.4%. Funds all fled to buy Procter & Gamble and Lockheed Martin for safety, turning tech stocks into cash machines. The most typical negative example was Lam Research. Despite solid quarterly results and an above-expectation guidance for next quarter, its stock still plummeted nearly 12%. The message is clear: the market no longer cares how much you earn this quarter. As long as the long-term returns on AI capital expenditure are unclear, funds will blindly run away, and valuation-cutting knives keep flying. Commodities are also uneasy. Brent crude surged 4% to $113 amid escalating Middle East geopolitical risks, bringing the ghost of inflation back. Although the 10-year US Treasury yield slightly retreated to 4.95%, it can't save the situation against soaring oil prices. Back to our main battlefield. BTC dropped to around 81,500, down 3.3% in 24 hours, with the entire crypto market cap shrinking 5.61%, bleeding out. Today, my eyes are fixed on one number: $80,200. Why? Because this is the average holding cost line for financial institutions. Meanwhile, the $80,000 to $81,000 range below is an extremely dangerous zone for concentrated long liquidations. These two mines are too close. Once the price can't hold and crashes toward the 80,000 mark, a chain reaction of long liquidations combined with institutional profit cushion thinning and psychological panic can easily create a deep pit. My trading strategy is very clear: never blindly catch a falling knife. If the price
Ci Ge dollar-cost averaging strategy $BTC
Dollar-cost averaging target BTC
Goal 100 million
Daily dollar-cost averaging 888.88u
Already dollar-cost averaged 53 times
Currently dollar-cost averaged 36000u
Average dollar-cost price 81524
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
With the FOMC meeting approaching, the market now prices in a 92.8% chance of a "pause in rate hikes," which is almost a sure bet. But after carefully examining the data in this chart, I found that things aren't that simple.
Everyone is celebrating the pause, but don't overlook the bigger picture. Initial jobless claims have dropped to 194,000, nearing multi-year lows, indicating that the U.S. economy is very resilient and not in recession at all. With such a strong economy and inflation pressures still present, why would the Fed immediately turn dovish? The community insight in the chart hits the nail on the head: a pause does not mean tightening is over; high interest rates still firmly suppress risk assets.
However, there is some good news in the short term: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below 5%. This is a rare breather for overvalued tech stocks and crypto assets, and BTC's slight 0.4% rise now is supported by this logic.
The core variable now is not whether rates will be hiked or not, but the "tone" of the Fed officials during the meeting. If they package the "pause" as a "hawkish pause," continue to emphasize inflation risks in the statement, and leave the door open for a rate hike in December, it will definitely be a blow to the market.
In terms of strategy, I absolutely would not bet on a one-sided move at this time. The 92.8% expectation means that if a pause is indeed announced, it could easily trigger a "good news already priced in" pullback. $BTC
+2.07K
+166.31%Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 11:36
$ZEC volatility is a bit high, is anyone still awake? Let's do a few trades together before sleeping
$BTC is about to bottom after a five-wave decline! Public layout! BTC long positions!
BTC really gave the chance to drop to 78888, at this level I will enter without hesitation to go long.
The reason is solid. Technically, 78888 just lands on the strong support zone repeatedly tested between 78000 and 79000. From 81600, it has been panic selling all the way down, short-term is seriously oversold, bearish momentum is basically exhausted, and a retaliatory technical rebound could happen anytime. Using a stop loss space of over a thousand points to bet on a rebound of more than two thousand points, the risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
On the capital side, the risk-off selling before the FOMC meeting has already created room. The average holding cost of treasury institutions is above 80,000; the current price dropping here means giving big funds an excellent opportunity to buy the dip. The spot buying below will most likely come out to support the bottom.
My position method is simple. Build long positions in batches near 78888, with a strict stop loss at 77500. As long as it effectively breaks below this level, it means the 80,000 defense line has completely collapsed, I will unconditionally admit defeat and exit, never holding the position.
Targets are viewed in batches: the first target is 80500, at which point I will close out more than half of the position to lock in profits. The remaining small position will see if it can reach back to 81600. For every 500-point price increase, the stop loss will be raised by 300 points.
Position size is controlled between 10% to 15%, with leverage up to 3x. The current market is an opportunity created by the drop; when the level is reached, I will enter according to discipline, take profits and run, without any emotion.
+3.11K
+249.85%Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 02:06
