陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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Shouldn't this post be translated into plain language like this?
The Bitcoin bear market lasted a long time, the gold bear market lasted a long time, Bitcoin has emerged from it, gold hasn't yet, now hardware has entered, but hardware entering is just hardware entering. I believe AI is not a bear market; other themes will emerge.
陈桂林谈交易
In the second half of September, I tried a few gold trades, got frustrated and said, "Damn, playing gold, silver, and oil is for dogs." After that, I really didn't touch them anymore.
Then looking at the gold trend, it really is a frustrating trend.
I suddenly thought:
Isn't the big Bitcoin trend from October 2025 to August 2026 going to be like this too?
So, what about the hardware sector?
PS: Personally, I still have a bullish bias towards the AI sector, feeling that it's different.
To be honest, before Bitcoin $BTC started with a 9, I didn't even have the slightest thought of popping champagne at 1:30.
In the second half of September, I tried a few gold trades, got frustrated and said, "Damn, playing gold, silver, and oil is for dogs." After that, I really didn't touch them anymore.
Then looking at the gold trend, it really is a frustrating trend.
I suddenly thought:
Isn't the big Bitcoin trend from October 2025 to August 2026 going to be like this too?
So, what about the hardware sector?
PS: Personally, I still have a bullish bias towards the AI sector, feeling that it's different.
I think $SPCX is one of the few big stocks that can be played with a small amount of capital;
I often watch $NVDA $MSFT $GOOG $AAPL, but rarely trade them. It's the same reason why I sold my Maotai shares after holding them for just a few days even though I knew they would rise—I feel I'm not cut out for it (overall they go up, but slowly).
But SPCX is different. SPCX ① is Elon Musk's stock, ② most of it is locked up with little liquidity, so its volatility is very high. High volatility means there are opportunities to make money.
Regarding Elon Musk giving stocks to all American kids, I think the significance outweighs the practical impact. After all, with this move, who wouldn't want to be an American kid? 😂
From a technical analysis perspective, I think it's still not a good time to go all-in on SPCX from a long-term position-building standpoint:
① Since 225.64, SPCX has been in a correction phase; ② the rise from 104.83 to 176.42 is just part of the correction (a rebound); ③ the third part of the correction has just started, so we need to see what kind of wave pattern it is, where the support will be, and what happens after the support.
After all, at the beginning of August, Guilin said that a rebound of SPCX to 170 was highly probable, so there was no rush to short it. Now saying there's no rush to go long, you can weigh it yourselves:
Mercy_okx
Elon Musk said he wants to give every child in the US one share of SpaceX, valued at about $148.5 at the current price.
The comment section split into two clear camps: one says it's true universal stock ownership, the other says free things are the most expensive.
Messi finds it interesting that: giving cash can be cashed out immediately; giving stock, especially to children, turns into telling a story about the future.
SpaceX will deliver its first full quarter earnings report since going public this week, and giving shares actually makes the issue very concrete—
If Starlink users and profits keep up with the valuation, American kids might really be winning at the starting line 😂
If not, $148.5 is just a price quote for today.
On the OKX planet, there is a SpaceX earnings forecast question, where the current evaluation criterion is that if the GAAP US stock earnings initially announced for the quarter are strictly above $0.17, it settles as yes; otherwise, no.
Regardless of the outcome, Elon made two big news stories within a week—truly a marketing genius 🥹
Surprised or not? With this approach, just do short-term trading, and every time you do it, no one makes a sound.
陈桂林谈交易
Since early September, when the crypto market entered a difficult mode—up until now, it still isn't the right time for agile positions to strike.
If you ask me, and I really want to act, what should I do?! Then I'll tell you:
1. Tight stop-loss, high leverage—regardless of large or small positions, now is not suitable for trading. This market just sweeps stop-losses back and forth; prices don't change but positions disappear—that's normal. Don't think, "My amount isn't big anyway, just playing around." Trust me, you'll slowly lose your mindset under its teasing, then your amount grows, and then a big wave hits;
2. How can a pure long trader operate in this market? I'll take Ethereum as an example: the liquidation price at 2x leverage is 1200, which is the midpoint.
Think carefully if there will be opportunities to add positions on the way down, and if adding positions down to a 1500 liquidation price will cause panic. If yes, then set the initial liquidation price at 800?
Think carefully if the price goes straight up, at what level to add positions and fill the position; how to stop loss if the add position is a false breakout.
Once you figure these out, use wide stop-loss to trade, because a drop back to bear market is low probability (back to 1500), while a bull market continuation (going to 3000+) is high probability.
In trading, no one can guarantee 100% win rate; everyone just bets on the side with higher probability.
A while ago, following the principle of mutual follows with verified blue V accounts to blend in, I would follow back any blue V that didn't follow me back.
My following count grew from dozens to hundreds, and now I realize my feed is full of AI.
Are you guys handing over X to AI to run with automatic replies every day just to exploit @elonmusk's perks?
Since early September, when the crypto market entered a difficult mode—up until now, it still isn't the right time for agile positions to strike.
If you ask me, and I really want to act, what should I do?! Then I'll tell you:
1. Tight stop-loss, high leverage—regardless of large or small positions, now is not suitable for trading. This market just sweeps stop-losses back and forth; prices don't change but positions disappear—that's normal. Don't think, "My amount isn't big anyway, just playing around." Trust me, you'll slowly lose your mindset under its teasing, then your amount grows, and then a big wave hits;
2. How can a pure long trader operate in this market? I'll take Ethereum as an example: the liquidation price at 2x leverage is 1200, which is the midpoint.
Think carefully if there will be opportunities to add positions on the way down, and if adding positions down to a 1500 liquidation price will cause panic. If yes, then set the initial liquidation price at 800?
Think carefully if the price goes straight up, at what level to add positions and fill the position; how to stop loss if the add position is a false breakout.
Once you figure these out, use wide stop-loss to trade, because a drop back to bear market is low probability (back to 1500), while a bull market continuation (going to 3000+) is high probability.
In trading, no one can guarantee 100% win rate; everyone just bets on the side with higher probability.
A manually observed data set:
1. The E/B exchange rate, after reversing in April 2025 (my personal opinion), will see a rebound every time the daily RSI hits the oversold zone.
2. Between September 2022 and April 2025, if you treat the E/B exchange rate as a single cryptocurrency, it behaves more like a bear market, with rebounds mostly characterized by sudden violent pullbacks (bear flags) without sustainability.
3. On the monthly level, the E/B exchange rate's MACD histogram turns green in August 2025. (Does anyone still understand the MACD return level?)
Biupa
Our Current Cycle Position
Around $ETH 2720 (September 21, see Figure 1) indicated a pullback expected to 2400, which was achieved 17 days later (October 8).
We bottom-fished around 2400-81200.
Although the market made two V-shaped rebounds (October 8 and October 13), it dropped again to about 2310 on October 15. Therefore, many bearish voices on the market emerged (such as foreign analyst Follis, etc.).
My view here is that 2400 and 2150 are two key bottom-fishing levels; 2150 may not necessarily be reached; after the pullback ends, ETH will head to 4000, possibly as soon as this year.
First, observe the consolidation range from August to November 2024, as shown in Figure 2. The upper boundary is 2720, with support at 2400, 2310 (the same level as the October 15 low this week), and 2150. After 91 days, it breaks out of this range and rises to around 4000.
Next, observe the consolidation range from May to July 2025, as shown in Figure 3. The upper boundary is 2720, with support at 2400, 2310 (tested once), and 2150. After 58 days, it breaks out of this range and rises to around 4800.
Finally, looking at this year's consolidation range, starting from August 21, it has been consolidating for 55 days. The current top is 2720, with bottom support at 2400 and 2310. This pattern is highly similar to the May-July 2025 consolidation, especially considering Ethereum’s rise starting from around 1500 in both cases.
Considering that we believe the four-year cycle bottom has already appeared, I think the possibility of a "dip back" is very slim. On the contrary, a scenario similar to the post-consolidation rise to 4000 seen in May-July 2025 is more likely.
Therefore, I do not recommend bearish or short positions here, only accumulating longs.
Some compare the current market to the January-March 2023 pattern and expect a drop similar to the March 10, 2023 event (the Silvergate bank collapse), which is the main bearish argument for seeing 75000. I do not believe such a drop will occur.
Looking only at ETH, in March 2023 ETH rebounded from the 1400-800 range to the 1400-2150 range but did not break 2150. The March 10, 2023 pullback to 1400 was also the lowest point on April 7, 2025, and near the 2018 ETH four-year cycle top.
From 2024 onward, Ethereum first dropped but never fell below 1400 again; the bottom range has shifted upward from 1400-800 to 2150-1400. Secondly, after two breakouts above 2150 (December 2023 and May 2025), Ethereum has never experienced a "dip back."
Therefore, based on the similarity of the current range and Ethereum’s tone since late 2023, I tend to believe there will be no deep pullback here. After 2-3 months of range consolidation (already 2 months, which may end anytime), it will head to 4000. The confirming signal is a weekly close above 2800 or a daily close above 2880.
Finally, let's discuss whether 2150 will be reached.
I first think 2310 is already a position with a sufficiently high risk-reward ratio, considering the upside to 4000. 2400 is also a very good position, so there is no need to chase the absolute bottom.
Secondly, the false break below 2150 in 2025 occurred after a false breakout above 2880. Since there has been no false breakout above 2880 in the current range, I do not believe a false break below 2150 will necessarily occur.
I tend to hold a bullish mindset or remain somewhat optimistic about crypto projects, so I will not wait for 2150 to bottom-fish but will enter long positions at 2400 or below. If my analysis is correct, this year will yield considerable returns.