#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $XAU has surpassed 4600. It rose 5% in a week and 13% since August. Strangely, the 30-year US Treasury yield is still stuck at 5.27%, having briefly spiked to 5.337%, a new high since 2007. With bond yields this high, gold is still rising. This indicates one thing: the market is starting to lose faith in US Treasuries. The US Treasury hasn't been idle—it announced at least doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks. So what happened? The easing effect lasted only one day. The market simply isn't buying it. Ray Dalio from Bridgewater directly advised: underweight bonds, allocate 10%-15% to gold, and hold some Bitcoin. He said the US debt crisis could erupt within three years. This year, the US government revenue is 5.5 trillion, spending 7.5 trillion, with interest alone requiring 1 trillion. US Treasuries used to be the safest asset in the world. Now even Americans themselves don't trust them. Gold is rising, $BTC is rising. Bonds are falling. The faith in US Treasuries is collapsing. This is not ordinary market volatility; the underlying logic is changing. Where will the money go? Think for yourself.

$BTC surged 20% in two days, nearly hitting 80,000, up 24% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023. 189,000 people were liquidated, and $1.459 billion vanished into thin air. The shorts got hammered like this, I thought they would give up. But they didn't. A whale named "Set 10 Major Goals" just reopened a $170 million short position today, with an average BTC short price of 76,397, already floating a loss of 1.98 million. Such stubbornness, I really admire it. This isn't trading; it's sulking with the market. We've seen too many of these scripts in the last bull market—rising while shorting, shorting while losing, ending with account wipeouts, and the market only halfway done. The market won't stop and wait for you just because you lost money. It only follows its own path. I'm not saying you can't short now, but at least don't stubbornly resist against the trend during the acceleration phase. Before catching a flying knife, first see if your account can hold up.

Opening a position for a week, the real profits came in just these three days. The first four days were actually quite tough. After entering $ETH at 1882, the price hovered around 1900, even dropping to 1862 at one point. Those days had little market movement, just watching the numbers in the account jump back and forth. Up a bit, down a bit, up a bit, down a bit. By the end of it, people just didn’t want to watch anymore. It’s not about having a good mindset, it’s about not knowing what to do. Cut losses, but unwilling. Exit, but don’t know where to go. So you just leave it there, letting it hang in the account. The change happened three days ago. $BTC started pushing from 64000, rising to 79000 in three days, a $15,000 increase, surging all at once. There was almost no decent pullback in between, as if someone was constantly supporting it from below. ETH followed BTC upwards: 1900, 2000, 2200, 2400, 2500, rising 600 dollars in three days. Unrealized profits went from tens to hundreds, now over 3000 U. $ZEC hasn’t been idle these three days either, jumping straight from 567 to 834, a 26% increase. When I checked in the afternoon, it had already surged to 834, volume was increasing, as if catching up with the broader market. I didn’t trade it, but still took a couple more looks when I saw it. These three days were worth more than the previous four combined. But the hardest part wasn’t actually predicting the rise, It was holding through those first few days without selling. This rally surged too fiercely. The biggest feeling this week isn’t how much was earned, but holding the position itself. Sometimes doing nothing is harder than doing something.

On Friday, the federal regulatory comment window just closed. Five regulatory agencies jointly pushed new rules requiring real-name verification for every stablecoin. Stablecoins like USDC and USDT, which used to circumvent regulations, now have to comply closely with them. Big investors fear real-name verification the most; they won’t come in. What about retail investors? Those who seek convenience might reconsider whether to continue playing. On the other hand, the Federal Housing Finance Agency released even bigger news — it plans to classify cryptocurrencies as eligible assets for mortgage loans. In the future, $BTC can be directly used to apply for a mortgage. While tightening controls on one side, they are opening doors on the other. On one hand, stablecoins are being aligned with traditional financial regulations; on the other, cryptocurrencies are being integrated into the traditional financial system. Is this regulatory move a blockade or a facilitation? Hard to say, but at least it’s not a one-size-fits-all approach.

Three days ago, the fear index was 20, extreme fear. Today it's 72, greed. In three days, $BTC pushed from 64,000 to 79,000, $ETH from 1900 to 2400. When it rises, it's a bull market; when it falls, it's a bear market. What changes is never the fundamentals, but the positions. Those who cut losses at 64,000, have they recovered at 78,000? Those who sold ETH at 1900, have they bought back at 2400? Most likely not. The market is still the same market, the candlesticks are still the same candlesticks. What changes are the numbers in the accounts and the emotions those numbers bring. When it falls, you feel it will go to zero; when it rises, you feel it will take off. The same market, the same group of people, slapping themselves back and forth. Fear three days ago, greed today? What cuts you is never the market, but your own emotions.

#Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX Losing ¥42 billion a year, still planning to raise ¥75 billion, I can't make sense of this accounting $ANTHROPIC is going public, with a fundraising scale possibly matching $SPCX's $75 billion. Q2 revenue was ¥11.5 billion, a 14-fold year-over-year increase. Annualized revenue is ¥65 billion. Adjusted profits have also turned positive. Sounds impressive, right? But in 2025, the net loss is nearly ¥42 billion—note, this is net loss, not revenue. Losing ¥42 billion a year, what does that mean? Revenue of ¥11.5 billion, loss of ¥42 billion. For every ¥1 earned, more than ¥3 lost. And they still want to raise another ¥75 billion from the market. Where did the money go? Computing power. Training models, buying chips, paying electricity bills. I just have one question: When will this AI business actually become profitable? No matter how fast revenue grows, losses exceed earnings. Wall Street is currently valuing it at ¥2 trillion, betting that revenue will reach ¥200 billion by 2028. But that's four years from now. Paying for a pie four years from now, right now? I'm not saying Anthropic is bad, Claude is indeed useful. But this valuation logic, how is it different from the internet bubble back then? Revenue tells a story, losses are reality. What do you all think?

The crypto market has welcomed its own spring, glowing green $XPL surged 21%, $ENA rose 38%, and $PEOPLE also went up 21%. All three tokens pushed up together, as if they had agreed. Volume is also increasing, XPL 567 million, ENA 1.938 billion, PEOPLE 8.8 billion. Hot money is pouring into this pool, visible to everyone. The gainers list is not limited to these three; many others are following behind. It's not just one or two coins rising, the entire market is moving. From BTC to ETH, from mainstream to meme coins, all are pushing upwards. At times like this, the hardest part is not finding opportunities. Opportunities are everywhere; just browse the gainers list to find several. The hard part is controlling yourself, not chasing. When the market spreads, those who get on board early just need to hold steady. More coins will follow, more gains will emerge. No rush, spring has just begun.

#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 People who missed this market wave all say that missing out is worse than liquidation—nonsense. Missing out is not worse at all. Liquidation means real money is gone; missing out means you just missed a chance to make a profit. Ask those 200,000 people who got liquidated—would they rather have their accounts wiped out or just miss this rally? The answer is obvious. The phrase "missing out is worse than liquidation" is just something people who missed out tell themselves to feel better. Why? Because those who got liquidated have no energy to speak, while those who missed out still have the mood to post. Those shouting "it hurts" and "I’m kicking myself" in public are actually bragging—they still have USDT and capital to get in. The real tragedy is when your account only has three digits left, not even enough to miss out. So why do so many people feel like they missed out? Because this rally was too fast—from 64k to 75k in three days—many didn’t react in time. But have you really thought about it? Did you really miss out? Most people shouting they missed out didn’t actually miss out. They simply, purely, and absolutely didn’t make the profit they fantasized about. A month ago, when $BTC was at 69k, why didn’t you buy? When it dropped to 48k in April, why didn’t you buy? At 62k at the end of last year, why didn’t you buy? You didn’t buy because you weren’t sure then. Now it’s up, and you say you missed out. Is that really missing out? That’s hindsight bias. Ask yourself, even if time rewound to three days ago, would you have gone all in? You wouldn’t. Because back then you were wondering if 64,000 would hold, not that 75,000 was beckoning. That’s the fact—you can’t make money beyond your understanding, nor hold positions beyond your belief. So stop complaining about missing out. You didn’t miss out on anything. You just didn’t win this round. So what now? Calm down and ask yourself: Is this rally over? If you think it’s not, entering now isn’t missing out. If you think it is, then not entering now isn’t missing out, it’s risk aversion. How to judge? Look at volume. Spot $ETH has had large net inflows for three consecutive days, indicating institutions are buying. Whales are buying. The bottom is being supported. But RSI is severely overbought, hitting 96 on the 1-hour chart, indicating a short-term correction is due. Both things exist simultaneously, so there’s only one conclusion: the trend is bullish, but a short-term pullback is needed. If you understand this, you know what to do. The trend isn’t over; there are plenty of opportunities. Getting trapped chasing highs short-term is the real "missing out"—missing all the possibilities ahead. So my advice is simple: 1. If you have a position, hold it. Don’t sell just because it’s gone up a bit. 2. If you don’t have a position, wait. Wait for a pullback—even if it drops to 72,000 or 71,000, entering there is safer than chasing highs now. 3. Don’t be fully out or fully in; leave room. Don’t let the words "missing out" force you into regretful decisions. In this rally, those who missed out lose face. Those chasing at the top lose capital. Losing face can be earned back; losing capital means you really lose everything.

When all three screens turned green at the same time, I paused. On the left, $BTC at 75,000. In the middle, $ETH at 2,350. On the right, gold at 4,500. In the past 24 hours, BTC rose 8%, ETH rose 12%, and gold rose 4%. The last time I saw them all move up so neatly was in October last year. Gold moved first. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.32%, prompting the Treasury to act by announcing a doubling of the long-term bond repurchase program. The dollar fell to a two-and-a-half-month low, long-term rates retreated, real rates were pushed down, and gold was driven from 4,300 to above 4,500. Some are buying, some are taking over. BTC and ETH followed, but with different rhythms. On August 19, Trump met with the CEOs of Coinbase and Gemini at the White House, publicly pressuring the Senate to pass the market structure bill. On the same day, the SEC introduced a new regulatory framework for token financing — the first compliance channel established for projects. With these two messages combined, BTC surged 7% in a single day. Last night, after the Treasury’s repurchase announcement, it pushed again, breaking through 75,000. ETH rose 5 percentage points more than BTC today — shorts were heavily crowded, and when the price turned, a chain liquidation directly pushed it up. Like a spring compressed too long, it bounces fastest when released. Two forces are pushing simultaneously. On the macro side, the Treasury stabilizes the bond market, the dollar weakens, and liquidity expectations improve. Structurally, Trump and the SEC signal a policy shift, shorts are cleared out, and ETF funds are flowing back. On August 19, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of over $700 million. But there is a fundamental difference between gold and crypto. Gold’s rise is driven step-by-step by buying pressure. A significant part of BTC and ETH’s gains comes from short liquidations — some are buying, some are running. Different motivations mean different resilience going forward. Next, watch two things: whether the dollar index can continue to weaken — if the dollar rebounds, all three will come under pressure; and whether ETF inflows can sustain — if the $700 million-plus was just a pulse, then 75,000, 2,350, and 4,500 are short-term highs; if the inflows maintain this scale over the next week, then real money is entering. All three screens turned green simultaneously. Whether money is truly coming in will be answered in the next week.

#BTC is accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over? It's at 75000 now, retail investors still haven't woken up. This morning when I opened OKX, $BTC was already hanging above 75000. The last time I saw this number was almost a year ago. The whole network liquidated 3 billion. Shorts were completely wiped out. But I checked the chat records of several trading groups and found an interesting phenomenon—last night during the pump, the fastest people spamming the group were still the old faces who repeatedly bottom-fished and cut losses around 60000. They shouted the loudest, but their positions were already lost halfway. The truly silent ones are those who, after being shaken out three or four times, dare not move anymore. The price really went up, but the first reaction is not "I should be making money," but "Is this another scam?" Retail investors' fear of missing out is even more silent than losses. I also didn't go full position, only pushed 60%. The lesson from last year when the 65000 short was shaken out still remains—getting the direction right is useless if you pick the wrong timing, you still get swept out. So who is actually making money? On August 19, the combined net inflow of US BTC and $ETH spot ETFs was 706 million USD, with BTC accounting for 517 million. Continuous inflows, not a small amount. But what concerns me more is data from a market maker friend. They monitored several long-dormant addresses recently starting to move, all old miners who built positions from 2015 to 2017, with holding costs between 200 and 500 USD. These people usually don't move, only acting when the market is extremely fearful or extremely euphoric. They are not here to chase 75000, they are here to sell. ETF money is coming in, old miners are selling out. Both sides are doing their own thing, exchanging hands. Retail investors are waiting for confirmation, only rushing in after confirmation. Whoever can hold on is strong. Whether they can hold on or not, we will see on-chain in the next week—if those old addresses keep moving, it means the handover isn't over; if they stop, that's when real buying enters. It's 75000 now, but the real game is still on-chain.