tvbee
tvbee
✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜，分析能力大于交易水平，不撸毛
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Actually, forecasting earnings that exceed expectations is sometimes even simpler than trading stocks.
Basically, you could buy YES with your eyes closed.
For example, here at OKX, the focus is on the GAAP earnings per share metric.
GAAP, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, means calculated according to US generally accepted accounting standards.
To satisfy the market, listed companies may use some legal and compliant methods to inflate profits and EPS, such as:
Adjusting depreciation methods to reduce current costs,
Selling idle company assets to increase non-operating income...
This is one reason why sometimes even when earnings reports exceed expectations, stock prices still fall, because after analysts adjust for these cosmetic accounting figures, the real situation people see may not be ideal.
tvbee
SpaceX's earnings report is about to be released, and this quarter's report is very critical.
Although SpaceX's revenue has been growing rapidly, its profit and EPS have been negative since going public.
Last quarter's EPS was -$0.09, and the market expectation for this quarter is still not low, at +$0.17.
Brother Feng bought YES on SPCX exceeding expectations in the OKX prediction market.
After the OKX APP update, this purely zero-cost prediction market was merged into OKX Planet. It supports directly sharing positions when posting on the planet, including contracts, spot, strategies, dual currency wins, options, events, and prediction market positions (Outcomes).
OKX integrates social, media, and trading into one. Brother Feng bought YES for both SPCX and TSLA earnings exceeding expectations and conveniently shared them on OKX Planet.
At the same time, he also increased his position in SPCX spot. The $SPCX stock price did not rise in advance as expected; it even fell along with AI stocks to the level after the Q2 earnings announcement (early August). If it falls short of expectations, there may not be a sustained decline, but if it exceeds expectations, it could rise like it did from August 4 to 7.
SpaceX's earnings report is about to be released, and this quarter's report is very critical.
Although SpaceX's revenue has been growing rapidly, its profit and EPS have been negative since going public.
Last quarter's EPS was -$0.09, and the market expectation for this quarter is still not low, at +$0.17.
Brother Feng bought YES on SPCX exceeding expectations in the OKX prediction market.
After the OKX APP update, this purely zero-cost prediction market was merged into OKX Planet. It supports directly sharing positions when posting on the planet, including contracts, spot, strategies, dual currency wins, options, events, and prediction market positions (Outcomes).
OKX integrates social, media, and trading into one. Brother Feng bought YES for both SPCX and TSLA earnings exceeding expectations and conveniently shared them on OKX Planet.
At the same time, he also increased his position in SPCX spot. The $SPCX stock price did not rise in advance as expected; it even fell along with AI stocks to the level after the Q2 earnings announcement (early August). If it falls short of expectations, there may not be a sustained decline, but if it exceeds expectations, it could rise like it did from August 4 to 7.
Has AI really reached the stage of a bubble bursting?
You can look at one indicator—the Nasdaq 100 divided by the Nasdaq Composite Index.
The internet or AI booms have always been led by a few leading companies.
So around 1998 to 2000, we saw an explosive growth in NDX/IXIC, which might have come from a bubble in leading internet stocks.
But from the end of 2022 until now, the rise in NDX/IXIC is not comparable to the internet bubble phase at all.
We might have to thank Trump—sometimes imposing tariffs, sometimes government shutdowns, sometimes conflicts with Iran—these factors prevented the so-called AI bubble from inflating too much before it corrected.
So now, it might also be a correction caused by the midterm elections combined with high oil prices triggered by the US-Iran situation.
Wow, the $DNA team’s partial unlock actually depends on KPIs.
Brother Feng previously experienced NeoSoulAI’s AI product and received an airdrop of 1250 $DNA, so he studied DNA’s token economic model.
The total supply of DNA tokens is 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 130 million, which is 13%. Among this:
6% is allocated to the market, 4% to liquidity, 2% to the ecosystem, and 1% to airdrops. Early on, except for liquidity, only 9% is released, so the circulating supply is indeed not much.
Tokens for the team, advisors, VCs, and even the treasury are not unlocked at TGE and are locked for 12 months.
What’s unique is that NeoSoul proposed the Believe Plan, where the team’s portion of tokens will be released and unlocked according to KPIs after one year.
First, even if KPIs are completed early, the team’s tokens will still be locked for 12 months before release begins.
Second, the total amount of team tokens is fixed; even if KPIs exceed targets, the total release amount will not be exceeded.
Third, if the team fails to meet a KPI for a given period, the unlock for that period will be canceled, requiring the team to work hard to achieve KPIs on schedule.
NeoSoul’s innovative KPI-based token release for the team is a rare show of sincerity among new projects. The team is very likely to continue advancing the project’s products and ecosystem and even strive to meet KPIs.
No wonder many KOLs on Twitter have been discussing DNA recently, and many have received airdrops while the token price remains relatively stable.
The US Nasdaq 100 futures, South Korea's KOSPI index, and China's A-share Shanghai Composite Index all opened lower on Monday.
However, the Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded above Friday's closing price, while the KOSPI index and Shanghai Composite Index have not yet.
Of course, the Nasdaq 100 futures is just a futures contract with a small volume, so the real situation still depends on the evening session opening.
After the Korean stock market circuit breaker and SK Hynix's original stock dropped 11% on the same day, $SKHY premium surged to 52.5%.
US liquidity is still somewhat better; in the past two days, the decline in Micron has been decreasing.
Planning to buy a TradingView membership in November, so I can share my own charts then.
For today, I can only share the code first: NASDAQ:SKHY*10/(KRX:000660/FX_IDC:USDKRW)-1
US CPI exceeded expectations, global stock markets are all falling, with less than a quarter of countries' stock markets rising.
South Korea fell the most, down 7.57%, triggering a circuit breaker today. Next was the Nikkei at -4.90%.
Mainland China's A-shares were not spared either, with the Shanghai Composite down 1.59% and the Shenzhen Composite down 2.43%.
The influence of the US is still too great. Let's see how the US stock market opens tonight.
The bad news is known: the CPI exceeded expectations.
The consolation is that the expectation of no rate hike in October, although it dropped from 82% to 58.5%, is still higher than the probability of a rate hike.
The good news is $STRC did not fall, currently priced at $99.9. This means the true end of the panic period for microstrategy, BTC, and crypto has arrived.
A big bull market requires macro liquidity (such as the rate cuts and QE from 2020 to 2021), which is clearly not met now.
A small bull market needs some positive news (for example, in 2019 China said it would develop blockchain, Facebook planned to launch the stablecoin Libra), or at least no looming risks, which is also clearly not met now.
The conclusion is that the bear market is over, but the bull market hasn't come. It might be a "monkey market," although the traditional financial sector doesn't have this term. But crypto itself is unconventional, even quite strange...
Brother Feng's strategy remains to be an LP in US stocks, and to trade altcoins he favors in waves. If the market is not good, it's suitable for learning; he plans to seriously study grid trading because a volatile market might be more suitable for grids.
As for US stocks, now it's earnings season, so wait for the earnings reports before making further decisions.
