陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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Just asking because I don't understand, why did semiconductors lead the main decline again today?
Is there any new narrative? Like a certain company's poor earnings report or something;
Or is it simply a continuation of the previous decline due to past reasons (oil prices, war, capital expenditure, etc.)?
Right now, this market is just the dog whales playing with me for a while, and I play with the dog whales for a while.
In short, it's a mutual teasing market.
陈桂林谈交易
Imagined trading:
Find the position, go all in with 10X leverage, just as I go all in, the market explodes, leaving the break-even zone in 5 minutes, doubling in 5 hours, and achieving financial freedom in 5 days!
Actual trading:
I opened a short, oh no~ I closed it! I opened another short, oh~ I closed it again! I opened yet another short, oh~ I closed it again! Short, short, short, guess if I closed this time? Simply put, teasing the market maker.
Chen Guilin's Trading Notes:
October 22, 2026
As mentioned in a post a few days ago, most semiconductor stocks are currently in wave C of an ABC correction, and the Nasdaq has been dominated by these stocks for over a year, so it is also in wave C of an ABC pattern.
Key information is shown in the figure (Figure 1).
So, logically closing the loop: semiconductors are undergoing wave C correction, Nasdaq is following wave C correction, can Bitcoin alone rise? I think it's unlikely.
The good news is: semiconductors and Nasdaq are in a large-scale wave C, while Bitcoin is in a correction after its first wave of rise, and after this correction, there will be another wave of rise of the same level. (Figure 2)
In terms of timing, I believe Bitcoin is already in the latter half of this correction; at the earliest by the end of October, at the latest before mid-November, this correction will end and a new trend upward will begin.
What should be done at this time: optimize your position towards the end of the correction, avoid frequent trading to prevent trading habits formed during choppy markets from carrying over into trending markets. After all, for me personally, profits in this round have been made during trending markets, not choppy ones.
Finally: Ethereum is the real Bitcoin (Figure 3).
Ethereum is the real Bitcoin, remember, I'm telling you, come back in two months to thank me.
陈桂林谈交易
A manually observed data set:
1. The E/B exchange rate, after reversing in April 2025 (my personal opinion), will see a rebound every time the daily RSI hits the oversold zone.
2. Between September 2022 and April 2025, if you treat the E/B exchange rate as a single cryptocurrency, it behaves more like a bear market, with rebounds mostly characterized by sudden violent pullbacks (bear flags) without sustainability.
3. On the monthly level, the E/B exchange rate's MACD histogram turns green in August 2025. (Does anyone still understand the MACD return level?)
Hold on: it is the most widely known phrase in the crypto community, and at the same time, the hardest thing to do.
陈桂林谈交易
To be honest, before Bitcoin $BTC started with a 9, I didn't even have the slightest thought of popping champagne at 1:30.
Imagined trading:
Find the position, go all in with 10X leverage, just as I go all in, the market explodes, leaving the break-even zone in 5 minutes, doubling in 5 hours, and achieving financial freedom in 5 days!
Actual trading:
I opened a short, oh no~ I closed it! I opened another short, oh~ I closed it again! I opened yet another short, oh~ I closed it again! Short, short, short, guess if I closed this time? Simply put, teasing the market maker.
陈桂林谈交易
On October 14th, I said crude oil was the key KEY in the recent market;
On October 19th, crude oil dropped a bit, but I said it should consolidate first;
On October 20th, crude oil gave me a key K-line, so now I think it's close.
I remember hearing from a teacher of the pattern school before that channels are an unstable pattern. Are there any teachers from the classical pattern school? Is this statement correct?
Nowadays, when people mention Shenzhen, most people's first impression is that it is a vibrant and modern new city.
But maybe just a few decades later, when people around the world mention Shenzhen again, there will be a deep sense of historical weight in it.
Then, after a few more decades, it will be written into history textbooks.
Purely personal speculation.
陈桂林谈交易
If you zoom out your perspective a bit, you'll find that this round of hardware adjustments barely affects the US stock market, the Australian stock market is performing normally, and the real backbone being broken is the world's central Korean stock market;
If you zoom out your perspective a little more, you'll find that the new round of the "AI technology revolution" seems to have only China and the US standing at the center stage; the old European powers, Russia, and others have not been able to participate for various reasons;
Zooming back in to the micro level, even someone like me, a mild AI user, finds that I can no longer get used to the old-fashioned WEB2 search engines, but have become accustomed to asking AI when I have questions;
This time, the world may quietly (unlike S1, S2) complete a new round of reshuffling, or even redistribution, without people realizing it. This is not without reason, nor sudden; it is simply the cause and effect of what has been done over the past decades.
Therefore, going long on the US and going long on China is not wrong.