恐龙博士🦖🦖🦖
恐龙博士🦖🦖🦖
大厂算法工程师 Weex alpha最佳人气奖 okx aiagent第5+Bg aiagent第4
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The bull is here, I’m closing my long positions first. Although it might go to 85,000, I’m cashing out now. You guys have fun! Let’s see who foots the bill for this feast bitcoin:native ethereum:native
恐龙博士🦖🦖🦖
The bull is back! I've switched to the long side! Let's see if $BTC can reach 84000, and if it does, I'll buy again on the pullback to target 85000.
The hairy crabs have arrived, thanks to teacher @0xAstra for the treat!
By the way, let's talk about the GM Wallet @GMWalletHK that @0xAstra is working on.
According to the features announced this time, the new version already supports direct exchange from Ethereum to Pearl Network, and has added cross-chain exchange support for PRL. The entry is right on the wallet's transaction page, so users don't have to find a cross-chain bridge or manually complete cross-chain steps.
Bosses, you can give it a try!!!
The bull is back! I've switched to the long side! Let's see if $BTC can reach 84000, and if it can, I'll buy again on the pullback to target 85000.
The bull is back! I've switched to the long side! Let's see if $BTC can reach 84000, and if it does, I'll buy again on the pullback to target 85000.
恐龙博士🦖🦖🦖
BTC and ETH haven't shown much movement these days, which actually makes me a bit uneasy. I have a feeling this round of correction isn't over yet; it feels like the calm before the storm, especially for ETH.
The reason I'm leaning bearish is primarily inflation. The US September CPI released on October 14 rose from 3.4% year-over-year last month to 3.7%, with a 0.6% month-over-month increase. Price pressures are resurfacing, and I think it's a bit early to rely on easing to save risk assets now.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the range to 3.75%–4%. This means the pressure of rate hikes has already been realized once, but future policies remain uncertain. For the crypto space, funding costs won't come down easily, and whether new buyers are willing to chase higher prices is a question.
There are also divergences in capital flows. According to Farside's statistics, on October 19, US BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of about $527 million, while ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $103 million. So, it's not that institutions are all withdrawing; BTC indeed has capital returning. But ETH hasn't received the same support, which is why I'm more cautious about it.
This BTC inflow is certainly good news, but we need to see if it can sustain. A large inflow in one day is very different from continuous capital support. I won't assume the entire correction is over just because of this.
What worries me is that after a few days of sideways trading, everyone gradually gets used to this price, thinking it won't fall further, and starts leveraging to catch a rebound. If another round of selling pressure comes later and the price breaks below the consolidation range, stop-losses and forced liquidations could amplify the decline.
The next important event is the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 US time. Whether they continue to raise rates and how strong their language will be remains to be seen; we can't take it as a done deal in advance.
My view is to watch if bitcoin:native can hold 80,000; if it breaks, it might go down to 78,000. As for ethereum:native, if it breaks around 2,300, it could drop to 2,200!!
BTC and ETH haven't shown much movement these days, which actually makes me a bit uneasy. I have a feeling this round of correction isn't over yet; it feels like the calm before the storm, especially for ETH.
The reason I'm leaning bearish is primarily inflation. The US September CPI released on October 14 rose from 3.4% year-over-year last month to 3.7%, with a 0.6% month-over-month increase. Price pressures are resurfacing, and I think it's a bit early to rely on easing to save risk assets now.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the range to 3.75%–4%. This means the pressure of rate hikes has already been realized once, but future policies remain uncertain. For the crypto space, funding costs won't come down easily, and whether new buyers are willing to chase higher prices is a question.
There are also divergences in capital flows. According to Farside's statistics, on October 19, US BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of about $527 million, while ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $103 million. So, it's not that institutions are all withdrawing; BTC indeed has capital returning. But ETH hasn't received the same support, which is why I'm more cautious about it.
This BTC inflow is certainly good news, but we need to see if it can sustain. A large inflow in one day is very different from continuous capital support. I won't assume the entire correction is over just because of this.
What worries me is that after a few days of sideways trading, everyone gradually gets used to this price, thinking it won't fall further, and starts leveraging to catch a rebound. If another round of selling pressure comes later and the price breaks below the consolidation range, stop-losses and forced liquidations could amplify the decline.
The next important event is the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 US time. Whether they continue to raise rates and how strong their language will be remains to be seen; we can't take it as a done deal in advance.
My view is to watch if bitcoin:native can hold 80,000; if it breaks, it might go down to 78,000. As for ethereum:native, if it breaks around 2,300, it could drop to 2,200!!
So intense, after just one night of the competition, the first place went from 100U to 500U. This Predict Prophet Challenge really has some experts; I have to check out what trades the teacher made haha.
I felt a bit uncomfortable with the FURIA vs BB CS match yesterday. On the fourth map Mirage, BB only scored 1 point early on, but almost made a comeback later. In the end, FURIA won 13:11. Just after cutting losses, it got reversed - -, actually in CSGO matches, betting on the underdog with high odds and then riding the waves is a good strategy haha.
I plan to check out other teachers' strategies later and study seriously. Previously, I only used strategies to trade BTC 15min up/down with average results; this time I'll try manually to see if I can win.
@predictdotfun @yuexiaoyu @TC8880 @ricardogee
岳小鱼
Predict Prophet Challenge S2 will officially start at 12 tonight 🚀
This time, we have gathered 100 deep players from the prediction market, including KOLs, active community users, professional traders, and ecosystem partners.
For those who didn't make it into this competition, don't be discouraged. When the next round of registration opens, those who missed out this time will have priority review qualifications.
Additionally, players who perform well in S2 will be given priority invitations to continue participating in subsequent competitions!
We welcome everyone to keep following this prediction contest!
Real-time competition leaderboard:
Brother Sun's two interviews placed together really show quite a contrast haha.
In the episode with Shao Allen, they talked about thin muscles, blond hair, and how to use AI to manage life—topics very close to everyday life for ordinary people. But in the session with Jin Ming, they jumped straight into discussing BTC, the Nasdaq, US debt, and portfolio positions. The previous episode was about how to train, this one is already about how to allocate money.
Looking at @vctbtc's interview summary, the first detail I noticed was: Brother Sun is bearish on BTC, but he himself said he hasn't reduced his base holdings over the past year.
That's very interesting. Just reading the headline, one might think he sold all his coins; but reading further, you find his concerns are mainly long-term, especially the potential risks brought by AI and quantum computing. Mainly issues with cryptography and consensus on hard forks.
As for ETH, there has been actual action. He said he previously sold most of his ETH at highs, increased US stock allocation during that period, and hasn't bought back in large scale yet. His current attitude toward ETH is to keep waiting.
The AI part is also worth discussing. He is cautiously bearish on the Nasdaq mid-term, worried about capital clustering, hardware valuations, and circular financing, but at the same time very optimistic about AI applications, especially in health management. Personally, I think current storage and optical modules are still a bit expensive, so it’s better to wait a bit longer.
On the crypto side, he is quite positive about Hyperliquid, US stock perpetual contracts, and RWA. Especially the idea of providing more people in different regions with access to allocate dollar assets, which connects well with his ongoing stablecoin business.
By the way, a bit about Teacher Jin Ming.
His name is William Joy, known in the circle as "Xiandao." He has done AI startups at Jilian Technology, also involved in investment and family office management, and is a freediving world champion with world record experience. This resume is indeed broad, no wonder after listening to Brother Sun, everyone started looking up the host’s background. I personally agree with many of Teacher Xiandao’s views in his videos! Definitely worth a close look!!!
I think there’s no need to judge which of the two sessions is better. The Shao Allen episode targets young people, talking about how individuals can seize opportunities, with many easily shareable topics; Jin Ming has entrepreneurial and investment background, so that session can discuss more specific asset judgments.
But this contrast is still quite funny: the same Brother Sun, on one hand talking about training thin muscles, on the other investing and AI—truly Brother Sun’s unique style haha
@justinsuntron @Lumibb_
vct
Full latest in-depth interview with Sun Yuchen: Bearish on BTC, bearish on the Nasdaq, neutral on ETH, bullish on AI applications, not playing A-shares... Seriously shared many market views and trading positions, worth a look
Bearish on BTC. Believes Bitcoin faces significant threats from AI and quantum computing and is unlikely to come out unscathed; the market underestimates the potential impact of these risks on BTC. Quantum resistance upgrades can only save "those willing to save themselves," and hard forks freezing old coins are almost impossible to reach consensus on under Bitcoin's decentralization. However, his BTC is a base position and he has not reduced it during the past year's decline.
Currently holding only 20% ETH position, watching. Last year, he reduced 80-90% of ETH between 3600–4000 (in Nov–Dec last year, the logic for reduction was the "second peak relying only on Tom Lee" at 4800), and has not bought back yet. During ETH reduction, he increased allocation in US stocks.
Slightly bearish on the Nasdaq mid-term, bearish but has not shorted yet. Believes capital concentration is too severe; hardware stocks are hyped as software stocks, and if the AI financing cycle fails, everything fails. US Treasuries are the "parent" of all capital; now equity "children" are draining it. Interest rates must be high to attract money, but if too high, money will flow back. Short-term chip oversupply is possible, like the fiber optics in 2000.
Most bullish on AI applications, especially AI health management (data collection → mining → decision-making, no need to wait until illness to go to hospital). Least bullish on storage and optical modules. An anchor: the market cap ceiling of a single company is about half of US Treasuries, so Nvidia can at most quadruple again, while application layer opportunities to quadruple or more are abundant. Themes will differentiate next year and the year after.
The RMB will strengthen; the US Treasury crisis is overhyped. As long as the US holds ultimate control over AI (chips, storage, models), there will be no shortage of buyers for US Treasuries. "Sun Wukong cannot jump out of the palm of the Buddha."
Basically no A-share positions but will do some research. Regarding the A-share optical module rally, his explanation is that this direction can connect to US AI investment demand, and Chinese companies already have some manufacturing and industrial layout, so capital concentration is easy to form. He is bearish on all old economy assets (like liquor) and actively embraces new economy assets.
Hyperliquid is an important new development in this cycle. Believes US stock perpetual contracts have opened new product space for the entire industry; whether DEX can squeeze out CEX depends on whether US regulation grants Uniswap-style exemptions.
RWA space is very large. TRON will also vigorously promote US stocks on-chain in November, with the same logic as USDT: providing the third world an entry to allocate dollar assets.
Recommended reading list: Ayn Rand's "The Fountainhead," Wang Xiaobo's "Golden Age," Sun Xue @justinsuntron @sunyuchentron
Sun Ge's projects may not always be worth playing, but every time Sun Ge speaks, you really need to listen carefully, study carefully, and savor it thoroughly. I strongly agree with most of his views!!!
vct
Full latest in-depth interview with Sun Yuchen: Bearish on BTC, bearish on the Nasdaq, neutral on ETH, bullish on AI applications, not playing A-shares... Seriously shared many market views and trading positions, worth a look
Bearish on BTC. Believes Bitcoin faces significant threats from AI and quantum computing and is unlikely to come out unscathed; the market underestimates the potential impact of these risks on BTC. Quantum resistance upgrades can only save "those willing to save themselves," and hard forks freezing old coins are almost impossible to reach consensus on under Bitcoin's decentralization. However, his BTC is a base position and he has not reduced it during the past year's decline.
Currently holding only 20% ETH position, watching. Last year, he reduced 80-90% of ETH between 3600–4000 (in Nov–Dec last year, the logic for reduction was the "second peak relying only on Tom Lee" at 4800), and has not bought back yet. During ETH reduction, he increased allocation in US stocks.
Slightly bearish on the Nasdaq mid-term, bearish but has not shorted yet. Believes capital concentration is too severe; hardware stocks are hyped as software stocks, and if the AI financing cycle fails, everything fails. US Treasuries are the "parent" of all capital; now equity "children" are draining it. Interest rates must be high to attract money, but if too high, money will flow back. Short-term chip oversupply is possible, like the fiber optics in 2000.
Most bullish on AI applications, especially AI health management (data collection → mining → decision-making, no need to wait until illness to go to hospital). Least bullish on storage and optical modules. An anchor: the market cap ceiling of a single company is about half of US Treasuries, so Nvidia can at most quadruple again, while application layer opportunities to quadruple or more are abundant. Themes will differentiate next year and the year after.
The RMB will strengthen; the US Treasury crisis is overhyped. As long as the US holds ultimate control over AI (chips, storage, models), there will be no shortage of buyers for US Treasuries. "Sun Wukong cannot jump out of the palm of the Buddha."
Basically no A-share positions but will do some research. Regarding the A-share optical module rally, his explanation is that this direction can connect to US AI investment demand, and Chinese companies already have some manufacturing and industrial layout, so capital concentration is easy to form. He is bearish on all old economy assets (like liquor) and actively embraces new economy assets.
Hyperliquid is an important new development in this cycle. Believes US stock perpetual contracts have opened new product space for the entire industry; whether DEX can squeeze out CEX depends on whether US regulation grants Uniswap-style exemptions.
RWA space is very large. TRON will also vigorously promote US stocks on-chain in November, with the same logic as USDT: providing the third world an entry to allocate dollar assets.
Recommended reading list: Ayn Rand's "The Fountainhead," Wang Xiaobo's "Golden Age," Sun Xue @justinsuntron @sunyuchentron
For the Tesla earnings report question, I choose Yes
My thinking is that this quarter's automotive business has a sales foundation, and energy storage is also promising. There is a chance for some positive surprises in the report.
From the data already released, about 486,500 vehicles were delivered in Q3, and energy storage deployment was 13.7 GWh. Compared to about 480,100 vehicles and 13.5 GWh in Q2, these are slight increases—not a sudden breakout, but at least it gives me some optimistic confidence.
I am more focused on automotive gross margin, profit contribution from the energy storage business, and whether R&D and operating expenses have significantly eaten into the incremental gains.
I choose Yes, betting that the profit side can deliver a bit more. This judgment still needs to be verified by the earnings report; relying solely on delivery growth definitely can’t confirm a correct answer in advance.
Robotaxi, FSD, and robots are hot topics.
However, an earnings beat and a stock price increase after the report are two different things. The stock price also depends on prior pricing and subsequent guidance. This time, I’m only answering the question in the chart and won’t casually conclude on the stock price.
Tesla plans to release its earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 21. Let’s see if this Yes passes the test then. Earnings schedule
Also, teachers can check out my community:
@okxchinese #OKX美股财报季 @misaENFP
OKX中文
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