SNDK at $1390, do you still dare to chase?
Analysts shout a target price of 2173, the earnings report is on October 29, but the stock price has been halved from 2354 to 1299 — yet today, it suddenly pulled back to above 1400, up 7%. Is this a golden pitfall or the last institutional trap before the earnings report?
Let's look at the surface first: after a week of decline, today saw a violent rebound.
Last week, the semiconductor sector collectively crashed, SNDK dropped from the September high all the way down to 1299, breaking the upward trendline, with technicals showing "lower highs and lower lows". But today it opened and directly surged to 1400-1405, with increased volume, and oversold recovery buying entered. The 24-hour perpetual contracts move in tandem with the stock, causing greater volatility. RSI rebounded from the oversold zone, 1350-1370 is today's support low, 1420-1450 is the first resistance of the rebound — a short-term oversold bounce, but still within a mid-term correction structure.
First matter: Is the AI storage super cycle really real?
SNDK's fundamentals are ridiculously strong: FY2026 revenue 20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year, net profit 11.43 billion, EPS 73-78. Data center SSD business once reported +437%, gross margin is so high it has pricing power, NAND supply tightness supports high prices. Also cooperating with Meta on VR glasses storage, analysts mostly Buy/Strong Buy, target price midpoint 2173, highest 3600.
China's CXMT developed 4F² structure in DRAM, the market worries Chinese supply will eventually impact pricing. Last week semiconductor sector kept falling, storage stocks collectively retreated, CoreWeave's debt concerns also dragged AI-related stocks. Good fundamentals don't equal good stock price — cheap valuation may be because the market is pricing in "the future won't be that good" in advance.
Second matter: October 29 earnings report, is it a truth mirror or a money printer?
Expected EPS about 46, revenue 10.6-10.85 billion, market has priced in ±10% fluctuation.
Historical pattern: SNDK earnings often beat expectations.
Those fully invested before earnings are not investing, they are buying lottery tickets.
Third matter: A contradiction in technicals that must be watched
Good side: today's volume surge rebound, stabilizing above 1400, short-term bottom confirmation attempt. Supports at 1350-1370, 1290-1300, 1250-1280.
Bad side: price still below some moving averages, mid-term correction structure not broken. 1420-1450 is first resistance, 1500 second, 1600-1650 is MA pressure zone.
Today's rebound is oversold repair, not a trend reversal.
To confirm reversal, volume must increase and stabilize above 1450.
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
Forward PE 6x, valuation ridiculously cheap
AI data center SSD demand explosion, NAND supply tight
Analyst target price 2173, highest 3600
Today's volume surge rebound, oversold repair
On the other side:
Halved from 2354 to 1299, mid-term trend still down
China CXMT progress, storage sector under collective pressure
Last week broke key support, technicals bearish
Earnings ±10% fluctuation, leveraged funds can liquidate anytime
Key levels
Resistance above: 1420-1450 → 1500 → 1600-1650 → 1800+
Support below: 1350-1370 → 1290-1300 → 1250-1280 (breakdown target 1200)
Trading strategy
Short term (1-3 days): mainly rebound trades
Light long positions on pullback to 1370-1380, stop loss below 1350, target 1420-1450. Add positions on volume breakout above 1450 aiming for 1500.
If rebound hits resistance at 1420-1450, light short positions, stop loss above 1460, target 1380/1350.
Don't chase highs — entering at 1400 now means a pullback to 1350 causes a 3.5% loss, leverage magnifies liquidation risk.
Swing (before earnings): neutral to slightly bullish but must reduce and hedge
Build long positions in batches at 1300-1350, target 1500-1600, stop loss 1250.
If breaks 1290 with volume, switch to watch or light short, target 1200.
Must reduce or hedge before earnings — ±10% fluctuation is no joke.
Mid to long term: wait for deeper correction
Bullish on AI storage super cycle? Build spot/low leverage positions in batches at 1200-1300, target 2000+.
But remember: Chinese competition and AI capex data are two swords hanging overhead.
SNDK now is like Nvidia in 2023 —
Everyone says "AI is the future," but NVDA fell from 300 to 108 in 2022, how many cut losses at the bottom?
What happened later? From 108 to 1400.
Good companies falling also make you question everything.
The super cycle story hasn't changed, what changed is your cost basis and leverage.
On October 29 earnings day, you'll find —
Either you'll be slapping your thigh for "should have gotten in earlier," or regretting "should have reduced earlier."
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