Three days ago, the fear index was 20, extreme fear. Today it's 72, greed. In three days, $BTC pushed from 64,000 to 79,000, $ETH from 1900 to 2400. When it rises, it's a bull market; when it falls, it's a bear market. What changes is never the fundamentals, but the positions. Those who cut losses at 64,000, have they recovered at 78,000? Those who sold ETH at 1900, have they bought back at 2400? Most likely not. The market is still the same market, the candlesticks are still the same candlesticks. What changes are the numbers in the accounts and the emotions those numbers bring. When it falls, you feel it will go to zero; when it rises, you feel it will take off. The same market, the same group of people, slapping themselves back and forth. Fear three days ago, greed today? What cuts you is never the market, but your own emotions.

#Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX Losing ¥42 billion a year, still planning to raise ¥75 billion, I can't make sense of this accounting $ANTHROPIC is going public, with a fundraising scale possibly matching $SPCX's $75 billion. Q2 revenue was ¥11.5 billion, a 14-fold year-over-year increase. Annualized revenue is ¥65 billion. Adjusted profits have also turned positive. Sounds impressive, right? But in 2025, the net loss is nearly ¥42 billion—note, this is net loss, not revenue. Losing ¥42 billion a year, what does that mean? Revenue of ¥11.5 billion, loss of ¥42 billion. For every ¥1 earned, more than ¥3 lost. And they still want to raise another ¥75 billion from the market. Where did the money go? Computing power. Training models, buying chips, paying electricity bills. I just have one question: When will this AI business actually become profitable? No matter how fast revenue grows, losses exceed earnings. Wall Street is currently valuing it at ¥2 trillion, betting that revenue will reach ¥200 billion by 2028. But that's four years from now. Paying for a pie four years from now, right now? I'm not saying Anthropic is bad, Claude is indeed useful. But this valuation logic, how is it different from the internet bubble back then? Revenue tells a story, losses are reality. What do you all think?

The crypto market has welcomed its own spring, glowing green $XPL surged 21%, $ENA rose 38%, and $PEOPLE also went up 21%. All three tokens pushed up together, as if they had agreed. Volume is also increasing, XPL 567 million, ENA 1.938 billion, PEOPLE 8.8 billion. Hot money is pouring into this pool, visible to everyone. The gainers list is not limited to these three; many others are following behind. It's not just one or two coins rising, the entire market is moving. From BTC to ETH, from mainstream to meme coins, all are pushing upwards. At times like this, the hardest part is not finding opportunities. Opportunities are everywhere; just browse the gainers list to find several. The hard part is controlling yourself, not chasing. When the market spreads, those who get on board early just need to hold steady. More coins will follow, more gains will emerge. No rush, spring has just begun.

#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 People who missed this market wave all say that missing out is worse than liquidation—nonsense. Missing out is not worse at all. Liquidation means real money is gone; missing out means you just missed a chance to make a profit. Ask those 200,000 people who got liquidated—would they rather have their accounts wiped out or just miss this rally? The answer is obvious. The phrase "missing out is worse than liquidation" is just something people who missed out tell themselves to feel better. Why? Because those who got liquidated have no energy to speak, while those who missed out still have the mood to post. Those shouting "it hurts" and "I’m kicking myself" in public are actually bragging—they still have USDT and capital to get in. The real tragedy is when your account only has three digits left, not even enough to miss out. So why do so many people feel like they missed out? Because this rally was too fast—from 64k to 75k in three days—many didn’t react in time. But have you really thought about it? Did you really miss out? Most people shouting they missed out didn’t actually miss out. They simply, purely, and absolutely didn’t make the profit they fantasized about. A month ago, when $BTC was at 69k, why didn’t you buy? When it dropped to 48k in April, why didn’t you buy? At 62k at the end of last year, why didn’t you buy? You didn’t buy because you weren’t sure then. Now it’s up, and you say you missed out. Is that really missing out? That’s hindsight bias. Ask yourself, even if time rewound to three days ago, would you have gone all in? You wouldn’t. Because back then you were wondering if 64,000 would hold, not that 75,000 was beckoning. That’s the fact—you can’t make money beyond your understanding, nor hold positions beyond your belief. So stop complaining about missing out. You didn’t miss out on anything. You just didn’t win this round. So what now? Calm down and ask yourself: Is this rally over? If you think it’s not, entering now isn’t missing out. If you think it is, then not entering now isn’t missing out, it’s risk aversion. How to judge? Look at volume. Spot $ETH has had large net inflows for three consecutive days, indicating institutions are buying. Whales are buying. The bottom is being supported. But RSI is severely overbought, hitting 96 on the 1-hour chart, indicating a short-term correction is due. Both things exist simultaneously, so there’s only one conclusion: the trend is bullish, but a short-term pullback is needed. If you understand this, you know what to do. The trend isn’t over; there are plenty of opportunities. Getting trapped chasing highs short-term is the real "missing out"—missing all the possibilities ahead. So my advice is simple: 1. If you have a position, hold it. Don’t sell just because it’s gone up a bit. 2. If you don’t have a position, wait. Wait for a pullback—even if it drops to 72,000 or 71,000, entering there is safer than chasing highs now. 3. Don’t be fully out or fully in; leave room. Don’t let the words "missing out" force you into regretful decisions. In this rally, those who missed out lose face. Those chasing at the top lose capital. Losing face can be earned back; losing capital means you really lose everything.

When all three screens turned green at the same time, I paused. On the left, $BTC at 75,000. In the middle, $ETH at 2,350. On the right, gold at 4,500. In the past 24 hours, BTC rose 8%, ETH rose 12%, and gold rose 4%. The last time I saw them all move up so neatly was in October last year. Gold moved first. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.32%, prompting the Treasury to act by announcing a doubling of the long-term bond repurchase program. The dollar fell to a two-and-a-half-month low, long-term rates retreated, real rates were pushed down, and gold was driven from 4,300 to above 4,500. Some are buying, some are taking over. BTC and ETH followed, but with different rhythms. On August 19, Trump met with the CEOs of Coinbase and Gemini at the White House, publicly pressuring the Senate to pass the market structure bill. On the same day, the SEC introduced a new regulatory framework for token financing — the first compliance channel established for projects. With these two messages combined, BTC surged 7% in a single day. Last night, after the Treasury’s repurchase announcement, it pushed again, breaking through 75,000. ETH rose 5 percentage points more than BTC today — shorts were heavily crowded, and when the price turned, a chain liquidation directly pushed it up. Like a spring compressed too long, it bounces fastest when released. Two forces are pushing simultaneously. On the macro side, the Treasury stabilizes the bond market, the dollar weakens, and liquidity expectations improve. Structurally, Trump and the SEC signal a policy shift, shorts are cleared out, and ETF funds are flowing back. On August 19, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of over $700 million. But there is a fundamental difference between gold and crypto. Gold’s rise is driven step-by-step by buying pressure. A significant part of BTC and ETH’s gains comes from short liquidations — some are buying, some are running. Different motivations mean different resilience going forward. Next, watch two things: whether the dollar index can continue to weaken — if the dollar rebounds, all three will come under pressure; and whether ETF inflows can sustain — if the $700 million-plus was just a pulse, then 75,000, 2,350, and 4,500 are short-term highs; if the inflows maintain this scale over the next week, then real money is entering. All three screens turned green simultaneously. Whether money is truly coming in will be answered in the next week.

#BTC is accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over? It's at 75000 now, retail investors still haven't woken up. This morning when I opened OKX, $BTC was already hanging above 75000. The last time I saw this number was almost a year ago. The whole network liquidated 3 billion. Shorts were completely wiped out. But I checked the chat records of several trading groups and found an interesting phenomenon—last night during the pump, the fastest people spamming the group were still the old faces who repeatedly bottom-fished and cut losses around 60000. They shouted the loudest, but their positions were already lost halfway. The truly silent ones are those who, after being shaken out three or four times, dare not move anymore. The price really went up, but the first reaction is not "I should be making money," but "Is this another scam?" Retail investors' fear of missing out is even more silent than losses. I also didn't go full position, only pushed 60%. The lesson from last year when the 65000 short was shaken out still remains—getting the direction right is useless if you pick the wrong timing, you still get swept out. So who is actually making money? On August 19, the combined net inflow of US BTC and $ETH spot ETFs was 706 million USD, with BTC accounting for 517 million. Continuous inflows, not a small amount. But what concerns me more is data from a market maker friend. They monitored several long-dormant addresses recently starting to move, all old miners who built positions from 2015 to 2017, with holding costs between 200 and 500 USD. These people usually don't move, only acting when the market is extremely fearful or extremely euphoric. They are not here to chase 75000, they are here to sell. ETF money is coming in, old miners are selling out. Both sides are doing their own thing, exchanging hands. Retail investors are waiting for confirmation, only rushing in after confirmation. Whoever can hold on is strong. Whether they can hold on or not, we will see on-chain in the next week—if those old addresses keep moving, it means the handover isn't over; if they stop, that's when real buying enters. It's 75000 now, but the real game is still on-chain.

$ETH I have to laugh at this trade first Around this time last week I was still crawling out of the altcoin swamp My account was all in the red I didn't even have the courage to open the app Now this trade is floating with a profit of 2430U A return rate of 2582% Holding from 1882 all the way to 2368 100x leverage, five ETH It's not luck, it's the spirit that didn't break But I’m not getting cocky The forced liquidation is at 1838 More than five hundred dollars away from the current price Sounds far But with 100x leverage, one big bearish candle Can smash the price from 2368 down to around 1900 Profit instantly vanishes into thin air This isn’t scaring myself, it’s doing the math 2400 is short-term resistance The 1-hour MACD has already formed a death cross at a high level The momentum to push up is fading a bit No chasing longs, no adding positions, just holding $BTC over there is also at a point where I need to remind myself From 69,000 with one big bullish candle up to 75,510 Up 4% in 24 hours Peaked at 75,770 But the 1-hour MACD red bars are clearly shortening The vertical rally’s momentum is weakening At 75,500 Chasing in now is just carrying those already on board Wait for it to pull back and stabilize around 74,000 Then consider whether to use profits to gamble on the next wave For now, just watch $XAU daily chart is insanely strong Closed at 4568, hitting a new phase high MACD is still extremely divergent In this one-sided market Touching the top is going against the trend Chasing highs has a terrible risk-reward ratio Can only wait for a pullback to 4500-4530 without breaking Then consider going long with the trend No action now BTC and gold are both at points where short-term momentum is slowing This is a reminder for my ETH long position If the overall market takes a breather ETH can’t fly solo No trades tonight Stop losses set, take profit orders set Let the candlesticks play out on their own From -200U to +2430U What’s in between isn’t luck It’s the hands that stopped opening random trades several times I’ve said this before Saying it again today because it’s worth it

$BTC pulled up 30 points, and the whales drove the car away. I glanced at the on-chain data and understood who is making money this time. Santiment's data shows that in the past 60 days, Bitcoin whales (holding over 1,000 coins) have cumulatively increased their holdings by about $2.75 billion. Moreover, these increases happened in the 62,000 to 66,000 range. It's not chasing the rally; it's anticipating it. On August 2nd, there was an interesting detail: an address dormant for 9 years moved out 1,000 BTC. The price 9 years ago was $230. You really don't think this is a retail investor, do you? The holding volume also confirms this. In July, whales held 71.2%, now it's 72.4%. Don't underestimate this 1.2%; converted to BTC quantity, it's close to hundreds of thousands of coins. Clearly, this is a move to position ahead. And these guys operate very uniformly: they don't chase highs, they only accumulate. BTC hovered between 62,000 and 66,000 for a few days, and during those days they slowly accumulated. When the price was pushed to 72,000, they were already in the car; retail investors were chasing, they were watching. Trey from ZZ Capital also mentioned a data point: the sell volume of long-term holders has dropped to a few thousand BTC per day, shrinking 80% from the tens of thousands at the beginning of the year. Fewer people are selling, more are slowly accumulating, supply narrows, demand doesn't decrease, so the price naturally pushes up. What I’m most concerned about now is—when retail investors realize that the 72,000 level might be the breakout point, what will the whales do? Continue to add positions, or slowly sell off? The answer is not in the candlestick charts, but on-chain. Watch those addresses holding over 1,000 coins; when they move, the trend truly moves.

$BTC has risen above 72000. When I saw this price, I remembered myself from last October. Back then, BTC had just passed 60000. I opened a short position around 65000 for a simple reason: it had risen too much and had to correct. But it was pushed all the way up to 73000. I held for three weeks and finally closed the position when it fell back to 68000. I didn’t lose much, but it really messed with my mindset. After that experience, I learned one thing: don’t make decisions based on reasons like "it’s risen too much"; you have to look at the structure. Seeing 72000 today feels different. Two things are happening simultaneously. One is the U.S. Treasury announcing at least doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases, with the 30-year yield dropping from 5.32% to 5.18%, and the dollar weakening. The other is Trump meeting with executives from Coinbase and Gemini at the White House, urging the Senate to pass the "Clear Act," while the SEC simultaneously introduces a "safe harbor for investment contracts" regulatory framework. Kendrick from Standard Chartered put it bluntly: the Treasury’s expansion of back-end repurchases is exactly the kind of thing BTC loves. Liquidity is loosening, regulation is warming up. Both fronts advancing, shorts are being collectively liquidated. 187,000 people liquidated across the network, the largest short liquidation day in history. But I took a closer look at Bitget’s data — a significant portion of the price increase comes from concentrated short liquidations, not spot buying dominance. In other words, the rise is real, but part of it is shorts fleeing, not longs rushing in. What to watch next? Two things. Spot $ETH saw a cumulative inflow of $1 billion in the first three days of this week, and this number needs to continue. Whether the "Clear Act" can pass after the Senate reconvenes in mid-September is the real structural change. If both are confirmed, this wave is completely different in nature from last October’s, which was driven purely by sentiment. I’ve already increased my position, without adding leverage. The lesson from holding shorts last year still stands. 72000 is here. What truly decides the direction is the inflows and legislation over the next two weeks.

Long and short both profited, three consecutive accounts, the indestructible Green Hair Teacher is back again. Account at $25,582, lost $26,277 in 7 days, return rate -85.20%. Last time we saw him was at 6,387, and before that 50,000. Every time it seemed about over, every time he managed to come back with a new approach. This time he launched a combination of moves. $BTC long position, opened at 69,816, closed at 71,013, earned 3,447U. Another BTC long, opened at 69,740, closed at 71,267, earned 4,408U. $ETH long also gained over 100U. After that, reversed to open shorts, BTC short Opened at 71,884, current price 71,936, floating loss 51U. Two ETH shorts combined have a floating loss of 247U. $SNDK short is still open, SKHYNIX short is also still open. Did longs and shorts. Made profits and took losses. Still showing a loss on the books, but that’s not important. What matters is he’s still trading, still opening positions, still turning things around after losses to make the next trade. After "Genius Trader Green Hair’s Fall," he’s back. The account is still the same account, the person is still the same person. The 85% loss remains, but he’s already turned a round. Making and losing money are part of the process; being alive means there’s a next trade.