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币圈胡婉儿
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大饼四天干上去15%,以太坊更狠直接干到22%,他妈的群里那帮人又高潮了,牛回速归喊得震天响。
技术面确实没法喷,日线MA200,RSI,MACD全给面子。宏观也诡异利好,通胀低了,ISM高了,罗素2000都新高了。短期看涨,我认。
可我就是觉得有点不对劲。
22年7、8月,一模一样。拉40%全网喊牛,结果11月一周跌没22%。FTX炸了是理由,可没炸的时候,四季度这一确认反转就砸的尿性,也没改过。这圈子,集体看多的时候,往往就是镰刀磨好的时候。
我目前只有$OKB 有仓位。不是不看好$BTC ,是怕被假突破耍得团团转。67K(8月横盘箱顶,现在算回踩位)是命门:焊死在上面,这波还能接着奏乐接着舞;漏了,别找理由,就是假信号,要跑得比谁都快。
四年周期这东西,比特币还没打破过。结论?谨慎看涨。我也想它直接飞到100万,可几轮牛熊下来,冲动基本等于找死。
我先轻仓猫着,等走稳了再加。你们要冲,记着67K那个坎,破了别头铁,别怪没提醒。
(PS:以上均为个人瞎猜,不构成投资建议)
#BTC突破72000美元,本轮上涨能否延续? #ETH强势拉升,空头清算超11亿美元
Observing the sky at night, this wave of Bitcoin went from 64,000 to 69,000 (once touched 72,000 in the afternoon), which is not a bull rebound at all, but a dog trader's chain scheme.
Last night, four shots fired simultaneously: White House crypto meeting + SEC exempted some token registrations + Treasury Secretary doubled bond buybacks + dollar plunge, the short side was sacrificed—29.9 billion exploded across the entire network in 24 hours, shorts accounted for over 90%, and 93.5% of shorts liquidated within 1 hour.
This morning CZ added a finishing blow: Bitcoin still follows the four-year cycle, the super cycle hasn't materialized yet, currently in a bear market phase. Don't rush, it's far from a raging bull.
Fear and greed index this morning was 46 (fear), at noon 62 (greed)—in half a day, it switched from scared to missing out, new money was squeezed out of shorts and immediately turned bullish, everyone on X is shouting the bear market only has four months before a quick bull rebound.
The dog traders will still have to pump it further, bringing this 62 greed crowd in to hang at the peak, then reverse to a sharp drop. This script has been played hundreds of times in 2019 and 2023.
I firmly refuse to chase the rise. At worst, I'll miss out but never catch the falling knife. The bull market isn't coming that fast, I haven't bottomed yet, $BTC is still on the rhythm waiting for 40,000.
Anyway, I'll hold $OKB to the death as my bottom support, betting OKX will survive the next round. Bitcoin will rise on its own, I'll wait for mine.
What got blown up are leverages, not the cycle. What got trapped is greed, not me.
Comrades, when paths cross, the brave win—let's crush the dog traders. 🐶
(PS: The above is all personal speculation and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss at your own risk)
#BTC突破72000美元,本轮上涨能否延续? #白宫峰会:特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
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