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Murphy | 墨飞学分析
Murphy | 墨飞学分析
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ETH数据二:筹码结构拆解 ETH的URPD上显示,在$2,700-2,800的筹码柱特别高,三根柱子加起来1300w枚左右,占流通量超过10%。 而且,这批筹码浮亏40%却几乎没有移动。 需要说明的是,ETH的URPD机制是账户模型,Glassnode 以每个实体的全部余额计算其加权平均成本。 比如,2月BitMine持有432万枚,当时平均成本约$3,100;到8月又增持148万枚,买入价大致在 $1,500 - $2,200;合并后加权平均成本就在$2,700左右。 持仓量级、成本位置、迁移方向三者同时吻合。 说明这根筹码柱的主体基本可以锁定是BitMine;当然,可能还混着其他被聚类的实体。 还有2个原因: 1、是今年1月的密集成交区; 2、链上质押; 再结合ETH赫芬达尔指数创历史新高,意味着某些大账户供应垄断,导致筹码集中度越来越高。 那大概率和BitMine、ETF以及链上质押有关了。 这带来的直接好处是当价格下跌时,大量流动性被锁住,不再会转换为抛压。 反过来,当ETH价格重回该区间,届时这些筹码是否仍然可以坚定,那就要看ETH当时的叙事和共识了。
Murphy | 墨飞学分析
Murphy | 墨飞学分析
The ETH data you wanted is here.....
It seems like it's been a long time since I talked about ETH. This round, I only bought BTC, not ETH, but that doesn't mean I'm bearish on it. On the contrary, so far ETH remains the mainstream asset with the strongest consensus after BTC. This is not just my opinion; ETH investors have proven it through their actions. Currently, ETH's price ($1,900) has retraced -60% from its peak, which is much less than the -80% in the previous cycle. However, the holdings of conviction buyers have reached as high as 31.42 million tokens, far exceeding the 19.5 million tokens at the bottom of the last bear market, and it's also the highest in history. This shows that no matter how many people spread FUD or even harshly criticize it as trash on X, it doesn't affect those steadfast investors who continue to accumulate ETH during price declines. Meanwhile, the total amount of tokens held by loss sellers and profit takers is significantly lower than at the bottoms of the previous two cycles. Whether they are willing to sell more or not, there aren't many tokens left to sell, and most tokens are not involved in turnover. Finally, there is a peculiar phenomenon we cannot ignore: the Herfindahl index of ETH has already surpassed the level at its inception in early 2015. This indicates that ETH's token concentration is increasing, with certain large account clusters monopolizing a large portion of the supply. This phenomenon started in November 2024; before that, ETH had spent 9 years on a path of decentralized token distribution, but now it has reversed and surpassed that concentration in just 2 years

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