Let's continue talking about Bitcoin. In just two days, BTC seems to have suddenly awakened from a low-volatility hibernation, soaring from the 60,000s all the way up to nearly 80,000. Many people are still immersed in the US stock market and AI trends, unable to switch channels in time, resulting in countless missed opportunities and liquidations. The intraday high reached 79,500, with the 80,000 round number just within sight. But even with this rise, we still cannot definitively say whether this is a fierce short-term rebound or a test before the start of a new bull market. The speed of the price increase is enough for us to upgrade the market status from an "ordinary rebound" to an "attempt at trend reversal"; however, whether it can ultimately evolve into a bull market depends on whether spot funds continue to support after high-level turnover and the first pullback. Looking back now, there were actually quite a few signs before this rally started. The most direct sign was the continuous net inflow into spot ETFs for several days. On August 20 alone, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow reached about $606 million, the largest single-day inflow since May 1. This indicates that this rally is not just contract market self-entertainment; there is indeed spot capital participation behind it. But even more interesting than the ETF data is the quiet shift in market attention. Since the first crash in the storage sector in late July, people joked that "after getting hurt in the US stock market, you still have to return to your original home." After SanDisk was pushed back near 1800 and liquidated again, the crowding and trading difficulty in popular US stock sectors further increased, and more and more people began to discuss BTC again. This kind of change in public opinion seems

Speaking of US stocks and then Bitcoin, the expected 3 AM reversal to pick up people didn't happen. Bitcoin surged straight to the classic 72,000 level that has blocked us for more than half a year in 2024. The 72k level is not only the EMA200 daily line but was also once regarded as a strong support after the 120k peak correction, holding high hopes. But as everyone knows, Bitcoin lingered around 60k for a long time and even once fell below 60k. From the crypto logic perspective alone, 62k was tested repeatedly without breaking, and with continuous macro easing, it should indeed rise. Once it starts to rally, the speed will be very fast, leaving most family members still playing US stocks behind. After all, according to the altcoin pump-and-dump logic, the faster the pump, the cheaper it is—first, retail investors can't get on board in time; second, after chasing, retail investors have high costs, which easily forms a chip peak at the high level, becoming resistance for the next rise or fall. Yesterday, from the contract perspective, I observed that open interest didn't rise but fell. Today, information from @Murphychen888 indicates this rally is led by spot trading. Generally, when the market is driven by spot, it tends to be more sustained and harder to fall. Also, there are no signs of exhaustion now, and below 80k, there isn't much decent resistance. So, provided the macro situation doesn't worsen (there's still about a week of time difference anyway), this round still has enough time and momentum to test the weekly EMA100 resistance around 75-78k. Even from the most conspiratorial angle—that this rally is for a better plunge—it's not a bad thing in the long run

Recently, staying up late to trade US stocks has seriously harmed my health, directly causing high blood pressure. I took a day off today, but with such big market changes, once the market opens, I still have to get back to work. After a day, more information has been disclosed, and the situation has become clearer. Setting aside the sudden interference factor of Bitcoin's sudden rise, the logic of oil prices rising while US stocks fall is very consistent, and it seems oil prices have not yet peaked. So even if Trump intends to keep the US stock market stable during the midterm elections, it doesn't mean the market will keep rising without turning back. At most, the overall trend can be kept upward until the midterm elections in November. If a black swan event occurs, there will be market rescue, but bulldozer-style continuous rises are neither realistic nor in his personal interest. Assuming Trump, Bessent, and Walsh are now cooperating closely without any grudges or information gaps. Assuming they plan to raise interest rates in September, then Bessent's doubling of repurchases yesterday changes from a signal of easing to a prerequisite for rate hikes. Bessent must first suppress long-term interest rates through doubled repurchases to create external conditions for Walsh to raise rates and suppress short-term interest rates. The rate hike is to recharge the Federal Reserve's credibility and is a necessary measure to maintain interest rate differentials when allies generally raise rates. Moreover, the execution details of the doubled repurchases also contain clues about the rate hikes: effective on September 9, then increased again on November 4; one just before the September FOMC, the other the day after the November midterm election vote. This also explains why Bessent was eager to have the Federal Reserve raise the FIMA limit in early August: once the Fed raises rates, the US-Japan interest rate spread widens, and the USD/JPY returns to 16