TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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After the US stock market opened today, the seesaw logic between SPCX and the three major memory stocks seems to have been reactivated. However, tomorrow SPCX will have 1.3 billion shares unlocked. Although previous unlocks did not cause a significant drop in the stock price, this time is indeed different from before.
First, 1.3 billion compared to 319 million, four times the usual amount.
Second, this round of unlocking is mainly by institutions and VCs, but their probability of selling is lower than that of employees, which is good news.
The biggest difference lies in the price. Previous unlocks were at low price levels with weak selling pressure, but this time it hits the sweet spot. If the selling pressure is heavy, there is a possibility of a drop similar to Intel's post-market surge after earnings in July, followed by two declines.
At this time, the three major memory stocks are at relatively low prices, indicating that the seesaw logic between the two may reverse starting tomorrow.
However, considering political factors, Musk-related stocks are unlikely to fall sharply before the November 3 midterm elections, especially since Tesla will release its earnings report after the market today, which may further announce merger news to boost confidence.
So, looking at this comprehensively, even if the seesaw logic reverses, SPCX may experience box range fluctuations, while the memory stocks may outperform the market later by rebounding strongly based on earnings reports. $SPCX $SNDK #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
TraderS | 缺德道人
The first two political factors went a bit off track and can't be falsified, so let's pull back and analyze from a capital perspective.
The biggest highlight of this $SPCX earnings report is the profit exceeding expectations, with internet business at $2.367 billion, about 85%, SI business at $431 million, and aerospace business losing $7 million.
So how did this profit come about? A large part is that computing power leasing turned from loss to profit, essentially just moving money from one hand to the other.
The bulk of the $7.56 billion SI revenue comes from Anthropic and Google. Anthropic's operating cash flow can't cover the computing power bills, and the gap is filled by financing rounds from Google and Amazon.
Google is both an investor in Anthropic, a tenant of SpaceX, and holds about 4.18% of SpaceX shares.
In other words, money starts from Google, goes through Anthropic back to SpaceX, and then returns to Google as equity income, forming a closed loop. This is a typical method supporting high valuations in the current US stock market, fully demonstrated in the Nvidia cycle, but this time the chain is longer and the friction might be greater.
In today's market, whether profitable or not, daring to spend money is still seen as a sign of confidence in profit expectations, so in a sense, Anthropic's cash burn actually supports its IPO valuation
The first two political factors went a bit off track and can't be falsified, so let's pull back and analyze from a capital perspective.
The biggest highlight of this $SPCX earnings report is the profit exceeding expectations, with internet business at $2.367 billion, about 85%, SI business at $431 million, and aerospace business losing $7 million.
So how did this profit come about? A large part is that computing power leasing turned from loss to profit, essentially just moving money from one hand to the other.
The bulk of the $7.56 billion SI revenue comes from Anthropic and Google. Anthropic's operating cash flow can't cover the computing power bills, and the gap is filled by financing rounds from Google and Amazon.
Google is both an investor in Anthropic, a tenant of SpaceX, and holds about 4.18% of SpaceX shares.
In other words, money starts from Google, goes through Anthropic back to SpaceX, and then returns to Google as equity income, forming a closed loop. This is a typical method supporting high valuations in the current US stock market, fully demonstrated in the Nvidia cycle, but this time the chain is longer and the friction might be greater.
In today's market, whether profitable or not, daring to spend money is still seen as a sign of confidence in profit expectations, so in a sense, Anthropic's cash burn actually supports its IPO valuation
TraderS | 缺德道人
Following this line of thought, more evidence can be found. If we follow the Q2 earnings report interval of 35 days, the Q3 earnings report should have originally been released on November 4th, just one day after the midterm elections. However, this time it was moved up by two weeks and only announced four days in advance.
Combined with previous coordinated actions:
September 29: Trump's executive order → October 4: SI renaming
October 7: Trump's account → October 19: stock gift
October 15: Roadster release
October 20: earnings report release plus merger
These pre-arranged steps, combined with one of the best reports in history and Q1 2027 guidance, represent six major positive factors launched intensively. Against this backdrop, a jump above 160 cannot be considered high; in the coming days, the price must at least break the recent high of 176 to truly indicate strength.
Even if Trump loses both houses after the midterms, Musk will still need him in many areas, such as:
Pentagon orders
National security approval for divestiture of Chinese business during merger review
Satellite spectrum, environmental assessment exemptions, computing power procurement
However, everything has two sides. Musk using up his ammunition before the election also means there will be a relatively long positive gap after the election, lacking strong catalysts except for Starship 15. At this time, if market liquidity is insufficient and lock-up selling pressure occurs, the stock price will face significant pressure.
Moreover, if the Democrats win the midterms, they may target Musk in areas like stock gifts, contracts, and exemptions. But as a leading figure in American high-tech, Musk still has many chips to play. As long as he timely shifts and aligns with the next administration, he can continue to sail smoothly. $SPCX
For Iran, there really is no reason to ease tensions before the midterm elections, as a divided United States best serves Iran's interests.
Oil prices are still fluctuating at high levels; after WTI fell yesterday, it briefly rebounded above 100 today.
If high oil prices persist, one more factor supporting a reversal of the US stock market rebound will be lost. $CL #美国拟恢复受制裁油轮运营
Following this line of thought, more evidence can be found. If we follow the Q2 earnings report interval of 35 days, the Q3 earnings report should have originally been released on November 4th, just one day after the midterm elections. However, this time it was moved up by two weeks and only announced four days in advance.
Combined with previous coordinated actions:
September 29: Trump's executive order → October 4: SI renaming
October 7: Trump's account → October 19: stock gift
October 15: Roadster release
October 20: earnings report release plus merger
These pre-arranged steps, combined with one of the best reports in history and Q1 2027 guidance, represent six major positive factors launched intensively. Against this backdrop, a jump above 160 cannot be considered high; in the coming days, the price must at least break the recent high of 176 to truly indicate strength.
Even if Trump loses both houses after the midterms, Musk will still need him in many areas, such as:
Pentagon orders
National security approval for divestiture of Chinese business during merger review
Satellite spectrum, environmental assessment exemptions, computing power procurement
However, everything has two sides. Musk using up his ammunition before the election also means there will be a relatively long positive gap after the election, lacking strong catalysts except for Starship 15. At this time, if market liquidity is insufficient and lock-up selling pressure occurs, the stock price will face significant pressure.
Moreover, if the Democrats win the midterms, they may target Musk in areas like stock gifts, contracts, and exemptions. But as a leading figure in American high-tech, Musk still has many chips to play. As long as he timely shifts and aligns with the next administration, he can continue to sail smoothly. $SPCX
TraderS | 缺德道人
I have an immature but worth-following direction: given how good $SPCX's earnings report is, the sharp rally after hours might have political economy factors.
With the midterm elections approaching, Trump's chances of winning are slim; it's basically a scenario where he at least loses the House and most likely loses both chambers.
As his close ally, whether Musk fights desperately or tries to turn the tide, he has to go all in before the election. That way, even if they lose, at least there will be good times during Trump's remaining two-year term, and in the future, they can gradually shift to investing in the next popular candidate #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力
I have an immature but worth-following direction: given how good $SPCX's earnings report is, the sharp rally after hours might have political economy factors.
With the midterm elections approaching, Trump's chances of winning are slim; it's basically a scenario where he at least loses the House and most likely loses both chambers.
As his close ally, whether Musk fights desperately or tries to turn the tide, he has to go all in before the election. That way, even if they lose, at least there will be good times during Trump's remaining two-year term, and in the future, they can gradually shift to investing in the next popular candidate #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力
Those who haven't gotten in yet, don't be like yesterday—first slapping your thigh, then chasing the rally, and finally getting stuck. This kind of peace talk news has been released countless times this year; the usual pattern is to release the news first, then go back and forth, and only after several twists and turns will it be confirmed.
During this process, there will still be opportunities to get in. Then the peace agreement will probably last briefly for a few weeks to one or two months at most. After that, we wait for the next round of tension to flare up, oil prices to rise again, and the stock market to fall again, repeating the cycle over and over. $CL
TraderS | 缺德道人
Look at what we said before the market opened: the current short-term market is undoubtedly all about oil prices. Once the situation eases and oil prices drop, risk assets will sharply rebound $CL
Look at what we said before the market opened: the current short-term market is undoubtedly all about oil prices. Once the situation eases and oil prices drop, risk assets will sharply rebound $CL
SPCX TSLA Earnings Preview
After talking about Bitcoin, let's talk about the US stock market. This week continues the Q3 earnings season, with particular attention on Elon Musk's companies SpaceX $SPCX and $TSLA Tesla. Since last week, after he launched the flying car attracting a lot of market attention, the stock price effect still seems poor, and this week's earnings report is the real moment of truth.
After market close on Tuesday, 10/20, SpaceX will release its earnings.
After market close on Wednesday, 10/21, Tesla will release its earnings.
On Thursday, 10/22, up to 1.3 billion SpaceX shares will be unlocked.
On Saturday, 10/24, about 328.4 million shares will expire, with the first trading day being next Monday, 10/26.
Based on past experience, Musk often manages market value intentionally or unintentionally (within SEC compliance) by releasing news about cool high-tech, new infrastructure, and other positive factors when stock performance is poor. Obviously, the current stock performance of SPCX and TSLA is not good, so his flying car and stock donations are more likely a hedging tactic to attract traffic.
Looking at the actual earnings, both companies roughly meet expectations. SPCX only profits from Starlink, with market revenue expectations around $12.89 billion. This time, it will be important to see if the AI segment's spending and revenue have improved.
If earnings beat expectations, the stock will likely rebound back above 150+ to leave room for subsequent selling pressure. If earnings miss expectations combined with massive unlocking, SPCX will probably fall back to the 13X range in the short term, near the IPO price.
Also, the two earnings reports are released back-to-back, so...
This pre-market rebound today is indeed quite strong, especially with BTC spiking above 83k. It really doesn't follow the US stock market's decline; once the US stocks rebound, the strong get stronger. Although I can't be sure why BTC is so resilient this round, I roughly guess it's because the real interest rate expectations have become relatively fixed.
Although we are still in a rate-hiking cycle with about two more hikes totaling 50BP expected, the market consensus is that this rate-hiking cycle is short. So the negative impact is not as strong as anticipated.
Another possibility is that although AI, especially storage, has dropped sharply, this round is different from the one in July. The market is not in widespread panic, or you could say most retail investors have already deleveraged last time. This time prices have dropped a lot but the pain is much less.
So this round of decline might actually be a rotation, fundamentally different from the broad deleveraging in July.
Even from the perspective of long-term interest rates, easing has actually already happened on the Treasury side. The Treasury's quasi "twist operation" and Waller's hawkish rhetoric are at odds. This brings us back to the US version of YCC logic: the Fed hikes nominal short-term rates, the Treasury manages duration and liquidity, and the net effect is favorable for BTC.
In short, since BTC has proven its strength, our mindset should shift from the previous bear market, and our operations should change from shorting on rallies to buying on dips. $BTC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
Judging solely from the recent two-day debate between the US and Iran over the Mother of All Bombs, it seems the US military has a plan to use a massive bomb to attack Iran's nuclear facilities to claim a plausible victory. Last year, the easing of the situation in Iran was marked by the US announcing victory after bombing the Fordow nuclear facility.
Theoretically, after the midterm elections, Trump would need some key victories to explain to voters his quick exit from Iran. With no hope of a breakthrough, bombing nuclear facilities is basically the optimal solution.
However, this Mother of All Bombs (GBU-43/B) is an airburst bomb, mainly intended to create a media impact. If they really want to hit nuclear facilities, they would still use last year's GBU-57 bunker buster.
So, keep a close watch. If it really gets bombed, the tacit understanding might end. But the premise remains that Iran must be given enough benefits, such as service fees for passing through the Strait. After all, this is no longer the Khamenei era, when old Khamenei could stop things just by saying so. Now Iran has tasted the benefits of toughness, internal interests have also fragmented, and the same tactics working again would definitely come at a greater cost. $CL
TraderS | 缺德道人
The market finally started to rebound in this morning's session, mainly because oil prices began to fall back after breaking the hundred-dollar mark. Although geopolitical issues have not yet eased market value, the previous oil price fluctuation range of 70-90 has effectively shifted upward by about 10 dollars to the 80-100 range. After all, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for only 20% of global supply and is not completely cut off. Price rises or falls are reasonable; it all depends on what capital wants to do.
If this is the bottom range, combined with a few sharp moves around big companies' earnings reports this week, the market should be able to firmly stabilize. After that, there are the FOMC and midterm elections. Once all uncertainties pass and the market has fallen enough, a rebound will naturally follow. $CL #