The new AI king is emerging? The true heavyweight player in the AI track is about to enter the public capital market. This leading company deeply engaged in large models is sprinting toward a historically rare IPO scale, aiming directly to challenge the fundraising benchmark just set by $SPCX, intending to break the record in one go. On one side, SPCX holds tangible space infrastructure and visible launch orders, serving as a capital model of real hard technology; on the other side, the old rival $OPENAI, although having already started IPO preparations, chose to slow down and postpone its debut until 2027, effectively handing over the window for the "first AI IPO" this round to Anthropic to take the lead. This is not just a difference in listing schedules but a sophisticated capital game between the two AI giants: Anthropic moves first to establish market pricing power; OpenAI waits for the right moment to avoid rushing into a valuation pressure period. Supporting this capital drama is a visible leap in commercialization: a steeply rising revenue curve and phased operating profits turning positive, proving that native large models are no longer just lab technology but have become monetizable productivity tools. The market often points to past huge losses, but the underlying logic of AI is different. The large upfront investment is essentially to build a moat for computing power infrastructure and model capabilities. The upstream computing power supply chain also welcomes incremental expectations accordingly. Optical module and device manufacturers like Zhongji Xuchuang, New Easun, and Tianfu Communications, as the "shovel sellers" of computing infrastructure, are expected to benefit from this expansion rhythm; application-side targets connected to the Claude ecosystem, such as BlueFocus and Yidian Tianxia, will also see sentiment catalysts. Its core advantage is rooted in the enterprise service market, winning a large number of paying customers with long-text and complex task processing capabilities, carving out a differentiated monetization path. If this IPO lands, its significance goes far beyond a massive financing round. It will prove to the market that top-tier self-developed large model companies have crossed the commercialization validation threshold. Capital bets not only on the growth of a single company but also on the industrial discourse power of the next-generation general AI. The second half of the large model competition officially shifts from closed-door R&D to value realization in the public market. The new king emerges, and a new valuation benchmark for the AI industry may be born from this. #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX

The most direct overnight market signal: once liquidity expectations loosen, high-elasticity assets react first, with Ethereum's 15% surge being a prime example. $eth Capital sentiment spreads outward, creating a linked opportunity for storage chips, with $SNDK, Micron $MU, and $SKHYNIX Hynix all starting simultaneously. Two layers of logic overlap: On the macro side, the market trades on liquidity improvements brought by the Fed's short-term operations, raising risk appetite; on the industry side, AI inference expansion continuously drives storage demand, with HBM shortages, original manufacturers controlling capacity, and long-term contract price locks supporting the DRAM/NAND price increase cycle. One point to be cautious about: this round of macro catalysts is expectation-driven rather than a substantive easing cycle; although the storage sector has fundamental support, it has already seen considerable gains earlier and is prone to rapid pullbacks influenced by U.S. Treasury yields and capital rotation. Crypto market moves are mostly driven by leverage liquidations, while storage depends on order fulfillment and price realization, so they cannot be simply compared.

Do not overestimate the short-term value of this draft; it is important to distinguish that the exemption rules govern "new project issuance" and do not resolve the historical classification disputes of existing tokens, so the scope of benefits is very limited. From the perspective of coin transmission: 1. Almost no incremental benefit for BTC: BTC has long been widely regarded by the market as a commodity asset and is not covered under this investment contract exemption framework. Its market trend is still dominated by ETF funds and U.S. Treasury yields, making it difficult for this policy to trigger an independent rally. $BTC ​ 2. The benefit logic for ETH is lagging: The safe harbor is intended for future new projects and cannot immediately resolve the historical debate over whether ETH itself is a security. Even if new projects can issue tokens compliantly, fundraising, launch, and generating on-chain revenue are long processes, making it difficult to quickly translate into short-term ETH price gains. $ETH ​ 3. Higher risk for small ecosystem tokens: These assets are most susceptible to short-term pump-and-dump driven by funds leveraging "regulatory tailwinds," but the draft’s quota, entry conditions, and information disclosure obligations may be tightened at any time during the public consultation phase; combined with the high uncertainty of the CLARITY Act’s congressional vote, once expectations cool down, the pullback could be much greater than the broader market. Back to trading: Policy is a medium- to long-term slow variable and is insufficient to offset the valuation pressure caused by high long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Do not prematurely bet on ecosystem tokens; short-term capital preference will still favor the more certain BTC. It is safer to evaluate ecosystem opportunities after the final rules are released and clear precedents emerge. Beware of price crashes following expectation-driven speculation. #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案，CLARITY法案9月审议

$BTC rebound faces resistance, entering a consolidation phase around the 64600 level; $ETH follows BTC's fluctuations with limited elasticity; the most critical observation indicator ETH/BTC quickly retraced after testing the 0.03005 threshold, clearly reflecting market segmentation—capital prioritizes anchoring to BTC for risk aversion, temporarily avoiding Ethereum and similar assets that are more sensitive to risk appetite. Looking outward, the continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields remains the core constraint hanging over risk assets. The continuously rising discount rate persistently suppresses the valuation ceiling of interest-free assets like crypto, forming a mid-to-long-term market ceiling. Looking inward, no trend-breaking moves have appeared on the chart; BTC and ETH still maintain a box range consolidation, but capital sentiment has turned conservative, making the price ratio a leading indicator for gauging market sentiment. Trading is not suitable for one-sided bets; distinguishing cycles for response is more reasonable. Short-term traders should operate with a range mindset, strictly setting stop losses, and controlling profits and losses based on support and resistance; mid-to-long-term traders need patience to wait for two major confirmation signals: first, BTC must break above previous highs with volume, breaking the current consolidation pattern; second, the ETH/BTC price ratio must stabilize and rise, proving that market risk appetite is warming and capital is willing to allocate to ecosystem assets. Before these two signals materialize, focus on tracking and verification, strictly control position sizes, and rationally view opportunities and traps within the consolidation.

#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 The short-term spike in long-term bond yields is more of a one-time market reaction to fiscal and price expectations, and should not be simply equated with a permanent establishment of high long-term interest rates. Overseas central banks' portfolio adjustments are routine asset rebalancing, not concentrated risk-averse flight; active corporate financing instead reflects ongoing endogenous economic demand. The overseas bond market's linked adjustments merely follow the global term premium recovery and do not indicate a systemic risk outbreak in the bond market. Rising interest rates will cause short-term disturbances, but transmission to the real economy is delayed. As long as the employment base remains solid and inflation does not rebound, monetary policy will not continue to tighten. Various assets are temporarily impacted by sentiment, but medium- to long-term trends still depend on fundamentals, so there is no need to overstate crisis expectations.

From last night to today, three categories of assets collectively surged, showing similar upward momentum, but their subsequent trends have already begun to diverge in strength. The global risk market's bullish sentiment has quietly warmed up. This round of rallies in $SPCX, $SNDK, and Bitcoin was driven simultaneously by changes in overseas macroeconomic sentiment. The latest U.S. consumer data showed a clear weakening, combined with earlier cooling inflation indicators, which significantly eased market fears of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields both slightly weakened, and after risk-averse funds fled, a large amount of liquidity began to flow back into growth-oriented U.S. stocks and the crypto market. Specifically, $SNDK is supported by fundamental growth in AI storage performance, $SPCX benefits from institutional heavy exposure to thematic catalysts, and Bitcoin follows the overall market risk appetite to rebound accordingly. All three are in the same favorable macro environment and, with their respective exclusive catalysts, have exhibited synchronized upward movement. From a technical perspective: $SPCX previously identified a phase bottom at 139.11, then surged violently with a large bullish candle reaching a resistance high of 149.72. After the peak, bullish volume quickly shrank, and the price retreated to consolidate sideways around 145.89, forming a typical digestion pattern after a pulse rally. In the short term, 149.72 is a strong resistance, and the 144 whole number level is the key dividing line between bulls and bears in this rally. As long as the pullback does not effectively break below this level, the upward structure remains intact; $BTC has steadily climbed in a stepped manner from the 62685 low, with an orderly rhythm of rises and minor pullbacks for consolidation. The highest test at 64591 met resistance and pulled back; currently, it oscillates near 64348. The moving average system is gradually turning upward from a tangled state, with stronger bullish support. The previous high above will determine whether this rebound can further open up upside space; $SNDK had already formed an upward channel earlier, boosted by investors' daily performance expectations. After another surge with the broader market, it has entered a high-level consolidation. The stock price has held the dense trading zone during the rise, with no signs of weakening from volume-driven pullbacks. The uptrend remains intact, but short-term profit-taking has accumulated, requiring time for turnover to digest floating shares. After a broad rally ends, the resilience differences in each asset's fundamentals will gradually widen their performance gaps. There is no need to obsess over frequent short-term trading; prioritize holding key support levels and wait for the market to show independent strength or weakness before trading accordingly.

The weekly candle closed smoothly this morning, and the US stock market is about to open in the evening. Reviewing the weekly chart patterns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, both have fallen into a typical range-bound consolidation. Bitcoin's weekly candle has narrowed its amplitude for several consecutive weeks, with highs steadily moving lower and support at the lows remaining firm. Neither bulls nor bears have fully controlled the pace. The weekly moving averages are intertwined and converging, with bullish and bearish momentum tending toward balance. There is resistance around 63800 above and strong support at 62200 below. The entire week has been a tug-of-war, with a strong atmosphere of capital waiting on the sidelines. Ethereum's movement is synchronized with Bitcoin, with even smaller weekly fluctuations, showing a narrower grinding pattern. The 1900 level above has been tested multiple times but failed to hold, while the 1820 support firmly holds the price. The trend follows Bitcoin's range-bound consolidation and accumulation. $BTC $ETH On the macro level, US inflation and employment data counterbalance each other, the Federal Reserve's policy direction is unclear, and risk capital before and after the US market opens is reluctant to make one-sided bets. This directly limits cryptocurrencies from breaking out into a one-sided trend. Institutional ETF capital inflows and outflows alternate, which is also a reason for the continued market consolidation. Considering the rhythm of the US stock market opening tonight, the weekly consolidation structure is unlikely to break quickly in the short term and will most likely continue range-bound. Before Bitcoin breaks out with volume above 63800, the main strategy is to sell high and buy low within the range. As long as it does not effectively break below 62200, the consolidation pattern will not change. Ethereum moves back and forth relying on the 1820 support, with 1900 still the dividing line between strength and weakness. Before the weekly candle completes its directional choice, do not chase one-sided moves; just wait for the US stock market trend to settle and for capital to make a decision.

#SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard 13F Holds Heavy Positions The latest institutional holding data has surfaced, showing top capital flocking to SpaceX. Harvard Asset Management has bet over half of its public portfolio on this stock, and NVIDIA has made a significant entry, joining giants like Google and BlackRock in holding positions. This clearly indicates capital's confidence in its long-term growth potential. Multiple institutions are not engaging in short-term speculation but are optimistic about the company's three main growth drivers: Starlink's continuous expansion of global communication services, providing stable cash flow; Starship's iterative cost reduction, supporting moon missions and commercial launch orders; combined with NVIDIA's synergistic layout in space computing power, unlocking new growth in the AI field. In the long term, lunar infrastructure will further broaden growth boundaries. $NVDA Risks also objectively exist. After listing, original shares will gradually be unlocked, and the highly concentrated chip structure will face liquidity tests. If some early investors choose to exit, it will bring phased selling pressure. In terms of market performance, $SPCX surged after listing and then entered a consolidation range. In the short term, institutional support prevents deep pullbacks, but there is obvious resistance at previous highs. If subsequent positive factors such as Starship test flights and computing power business implementation materialize, the stock price is expected to break upward out of the range; however, if volume expands during the unlocking phase but the price stagnates, it will likely trigger a round of valuation digestion. Previously, hesitation and observation during the stock's low range prevented positioning, but now with institutional cards clear, chasing at high levels is not advisable. Waiting for fundamental progress and the unlocking window's performance before taking action is a more prudent strategy.

This morning, I reviewed the charts of the three major storage giants and finally understood the complete pattern of this collective rally. Initially, SanDisk's Investor Day release of earnings and buyback plans was just a positive catalyst for a single stock, but it ultimately sparked a buying wave across the entire storage sector. SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Micron consecutively broke out of their sideways ranges and started to rally. $SNDK is currently leading the pack at 1726.80, reaching an intraday high of 1775.75, breaking out with volume above the long-standing 1640 consolidation level. The MACD bullish crossover is wide open, clearly marking it as the leading stock targeted by capital. As long as the 1690 breakout support holds, the uptrend is unlikely to end easily; $SKHYNIX is steadily following the rhythm around the 1200 level, pulling back slightly after hitting 1205, with volume gradually increasing without overheating, showing a more composed trend; $MU at 992.67 is lagging but catching up, just breaking out of its consolidation range, with the MACD golden cross just forming and bullish momentum not yet fully unleashed. Although the three companies' price movements have diverged, their pace is consistent: the leader expands the height first, followed by the other two catching up in sequence. This is the most typical characteristic of a sector rally. Looking back, some were hesitant to position in SanDisk near 980, and now the recent rally has created a significant price gap, inevitably causing some regret for missing out. Currently, all three stocks are in a profit-taking phase after their breakouts. Instead of chasing intraday highs to accelerate the rally, it's better to monitor their respective support levels separately: watch 1690 for SanDisk, hold 1180 support for SK Hynix, and use 980 as the bull-bear dividing line for Micron. Since the sector trend has already emerged, as long as prices don't fall back into the previous long-term consolidation box, the AI-driven storage theme still has room to continue. Patiently holding and observing the strength of the breakout continuation is much safer than chasing highs to enter.

#ETF buying reversal, BTC leverage positions rebound The weekend is almost over. I carefully reviewed the one-hour chart of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The data and trends on the chart clearly reflect the current state. Bitcoin is currently hovering around 63061. The previous high resistance at 65490 still exists. After bouncing off the low at 62268, it has been locked in a range between 62964 and 63172 for the past two days, with volume noticeably shrinking. The MACD lines are tightly converged, and neither bulls nor bears want to make the first move over the weekend, grinding the market into a narrow box. Holding the 62960 support can maintain the consolidation pattern; if it breaks down, it will retest previous lows for support. To turn bullish, volume must increase and break above 6370 to create rebound conditions. $BTC Ethereum at 1881 is moving sideways alongside Bitcoin, fluctuating only about eight to nine dollars up and down. The bottom support at 1821 firmly holds the price, but it has not broken through the resistance at 1920. The MACD is also flat and converged, perfectly mirroring Bitcoin’s rhythm, showing no independent market logic. After alternating rises and falls in recent days, the market is taking a low-volume rest over the weekend, with no heavy selling or active buying breakthroughs. There is no need to pre-guess whether Monday’s open will be up or down. For Bitcoin, watch the key levels at 62960 and 6370; for Ethereum, focus on support at 1877 and resistance at 1920. During sideways consolidation, avoid frequent trades to save on fees. It will be much safer to wait for volume to break out of the range and provide a clear direction before positioning accordingly. $ETH