The professor's special skill honed during the bear market saved me from another disaster

Big Brother Machi (@machibigbrother, 0x020...5872) was liquidated nearly 500 times, turning $152,000 into $12.72 million in 3 days, with profits exceeding $12.5 million

Going long feels really good, bought $ETC $ASTER with a floating profit of 10%

Sun cut is dangerous!

A whole week of short squeezes, and many of those taken out were people whose "direction was actually correct." Their bearish logic might not be wrong, but their position sizes were too large, stop losses too tight, and timing too early—the catalyst hadn't materialized yet, and they were forced out by a sudden spike. This is the most expensive lesson at the table: you can read your opponent's cards correctly, but if your bet size is wrong, you'll still lose all your chips. Direction, position size, and timing—all three aligned is what counts as a win; if only one is right, the market will teach you a lesson. In this kind of vertical move now, it's not shameful at all to just watch the show empty-handed.

The longer I trade, the more I feel that patience is a seriously underestimated edge. In this kind of short squeeze pulse, people ask me every day, "Can I enter now?" My answer is basically "No." Next week’s Jackson Hole and Walsh’s debut will be the real judges of this market move. Those who use up all their bullets before a big event often find themselves with no cards to play when the real opportunity arrives. First think about surviving, then think about winning — I’ve believed this for many years.

Dalio came out saying "reduce bonds, allocate 10–15% of your position to gold" to hedge against the US debt crisis. For such big players' views, just listen to the framework, don't copy the position size—he manages hundreds of billions in long-duration allocations, while you and I are using leverage to bet on direction intraday, which is completely different. What you can really copy is never the target, but the discipline. Being willing to buy when the market is fearful and willing to stay out when greedy—these two things are more valuable than any "allocation advice." In this wave of greed, do you dare to stay out?

The fear and greed index has swung back to greed, and the comment section is once again neatly filled with "bull return" posts. To be blunt: in a market that gains 24 points in a week but volume doesn't pick up, the ones excited are mostly those who just jumped in recently. The fuel for the short squeeze is the shorts' stop-loss orders, not the trend. Once these squeezed shorts cover and the bulls who took over start trampling each other, you'll see who's swimming naked. Don't make your heaviest decisions when emotions are at their peak.

A whole week of short squeezes, $BTC +24%, almost touched 80,000 intraday. Here's something that might be unpopular: chasing shorts or longs now is basically just giving money away to others. My strategy is low-frequency, large bets; this kind of vertical surge is definitely not a scenario where I'd place heavy bets. Holding an empty position, sipping tea, and watching others get forcibly liquidated inside is the most comfortable spot. Anyone who plays cards knows—getting a good hand doesn't mean you have to play it; folding is what makes a long-term winner. Reopening shorts? Wait for momentum to fade, wait for a lower high, no rush.