Crypto_猫哥
推特同名@Crypto_猫哥 币圈八年老韭菜 擅长抓二级妖币、一级金狗带群友吃了几千X的$Pnut、$Goat 挑战1WU到100WU 点点关注、关注必回
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$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
Conclusion first
We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30%
Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB
If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP
Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation
I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back
Let's all get rich together
$BTC
When it was $63,000, no one wanted to buy Bitcoin.
Everyone said:
"Wait a bit longer, I'll definitely buy the dip when it drops to $40,000 or $50,000."
But as they waited, Bitcoin broke through $73,000 and has now surged to around $77,000, rising about 22% in a week.
Then a magical scene happened again:
No one wanted it at $63,000,
but at $77,000, people started scrambling to get on board. 😂
So the hardest thing to overcome in the crypto world might never be the market itself, but your own emotions.
Fear of further drops when prices fall, fear of missing out when prices rise.
This is the anxiety of missing the boat.
$BTC
Market sentiment is really strong, Bitcoin has surged wildly to around 80,000, and the group chats that were silent before have all become active these past few days. It might not be appropriate to pour cold water at this moment, but I still want to share my judgment.
I think this rally looks more like a return to Bitcoin's valuation. Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 last October, firstly due to the 1011 black swan event, and secondly because it was continuously drained by the US stock market. Now the Treasury has announced repurchasing long-term bonds, and Bassett said the scale will be increased. As long-term bond yields fall, the market is revaluing risk assets — and Bitcoin and gold are the most direct hedges against a weakening dollar and inflation.
There are two reasons that make me cautious:
1⃣ The positive factors behind this rise are actually not strong enough, as I mentioned in previous tweets. Also, Bitcoin ETFs saw a total inflow of over 1.6 billion this week, the best week since 2026; Ethereum ETFs had a single-day net inflow of 220 million on August 20, also the best day this year. The strength of the funds driving this rally is powerful, and just saying it's Wall Street doesn't seem very convincing to me.
2⃣ Cycle patterns. Historically, the time from the bull market peak to the bear market bottom is usually about a year. We have only passed 10 months since last October; moreover, this round's correction is much smaller than the previous two rounds. It can be said that the market structure has changed — traditional capital participation, regulatory intervention, further differentiation between mainstream and altcoins — but I still feel that 57,000 does not look like the bottom for this cycle
$BTC
【Don't rush to guess the top before the structure is clear】
If the weekly candle closes like this, what basis do you have to say it's done rising? Is it the structure telling you, or are you guessing based on the liquidation heatmap?
Everyone actually understands the logic, the problem is that being completely out of position makes it easy to FOMO. Afraid of missing out, afraid the market won't wait. But just because the price is rising doesn't mean you should immediately decide the next stop is 100,000.
My view hasn't changed; this wave is first looking at 82,800. But don't misunderstand, I'm not saying to short at 82,800. If there's no shorting structure there, I won't act.
For me, 82,800 is a take-profit point for my longs, not a shorting point. Shorting still requires the right structure.
Have the bears given up? Will there be one last drop? No one can say now. There are no eternal winners in the market; surviving and staying in the game is what matters most.
$BTC
#Bitocin is just one step away from the previous high of 82,600, so don't let it fall back directly, or it will seriously affect holders' confidence.
Facing this rebound, many people sell off their chips along with the rally. If this rebound doesn't break the previous high, the subsequent trend expectations will indeed look quite bleak.
On the contrary, once a new high is broken, the confidence to buy during the next pullback will greatly increase.
Don't underestimate market confidence, because confidence often equals consensus!
$BTC
Summary:
Following the previous analysis, the short-term rise has temporarily paused, starting to oscillate and slightly pull back.
Price Projection:
The price will fluctuate between 76793-77794, with a possible break below 76300 followed by a rebound.
Previous Projection:
After the price range of 72182-72477, it continued to rise, with the first target at 73110; after breaking this, the high point will reach the resistance at 75000.
Actual Price Movement:
After breaking above 79000, it pulled back and is currently fluctuating around 77000.
Future Trend:
Chip vacuum
Short-term remains a bullish attack.
Mid-term bullish attack, but after touching the historical bearish zone 79350-80275, it pulled back; support below is at 75733-76259. If 75733 holds, the trend continues upward.
Long-term is also a bullish attack.
According to this indicator, as long as 75733 holds, the upward trend continues.
Price Channel
Volume-weighted short-term average price is 72550, upper limit 90100, lower limit 63180.
Volume-weighted mid-term average price is 69620, upper limit 79270, lower limit 59370.
Volume-weighted long-term average price is 69050, upper limit 93760, lower limit 59160.
Short- and mid-term changes are significant; the three short-term lines have all risen. The current price is above the 72550 moving average, indicating an upward trend. On a pullback, the position to watch is also 72550. The mid-term upper limit has changed rapidly, from 77700 to 79270. Previously, this upper limit suppressed the price; now with this change, the upper limit will be at 79270.
To be honest
I wouldn't dare to play like this even with my Happy Beans
By the way, does this level have no transaction fees?
Can any expert explain it?
jasonleo
The market moved quickly today, and I didn't have time to open a post, so here is an update on the current short position.
1. After the previous short position ended, I re-entered a short around 76000.
The logic is actually quite simple.
When I established a long position near 63000, the phase target was originally 74000. I believed the bull market had returned, and that judgment has not changed.
However, I have always thought this round should be a consolidation upward, not a direct surge to 84000 or even 90000 without any pullback.
At least from the macro and market structure perspective, I have not yet seen enough signals to support such a move.
So I shorted again around 76000.
After opening the position, the price quickly surged to a high of 79500 in a short time. The planned stop loss was not executed as expected (stop loss was set in advance, but the system did not fill).
2. I have now reduced most of the short positions.
Not because I have changed my judgment, but to control risk first.
If the price continues to spike extremely here, 82000 or 84000 are possible, so there is no need to bet the full position on being absolutely right.
The remaining position will continue to be observed.
If the daily candle closes effectively above 80500, I will admit I was wrong on this trade, close all positions, and take a break.
If it still cannot hold here and weakens again, I will consider adding back the reduced short positions.
I am not interested in chasing longs at this level for now; the risk-reward ratio is no longer favorable.
3. Finally, a word on my big picture.
Last month near 63000, I clearly stated this was a phase bottom.
That judgment has not changed.
I still have a medium to long-term bullish view on BTC, but being bullish long-term and shorting locally are not contradictory.
This short position is a bet on a pullback during the upward process, not a renewed bearish view here.
If I am wrong, I will admit it above 80500.
If I am right, I will continue to execute according to plan.
I still believe that by March next year, we will see BTC at 100,000.
$BTC
The biggest wave of the bull market has ended
This account went from 10,000 to 24,000, and will stop trading for now
Making money in a bull market is not your skill, it's the market
Holding on is your skill!
Did anyone lose money shorting this wave? Or missed the ride?
Leave an address, and I'll randomly send some money
$BTC
Views after the $BTC pump, a brief discussion.
1) Currently, 80-83 is the most effective resistance level, which is the position the bears need to defend.
If this level is broken, the major daily low is formed, and the outlook turns bullish. It might be hard to see BTC starting with 6 again.
2) If 80-83 is rejected, the key level to watch is around eq 715.
That means if the price oscillates and slowly dips to test this support, then bulls should continue, and the price is expected to move upward.
If it sharply drops below and rejects further upward movement here, there is a chance for new lows to form.
$BTC
The bulls are back, but it doesn't mean the bull market has arrived yet, so don't rush. Many friends have recently asked me if the bull market is here. After a prolonged six-month period of gradual decline and consolidation ($60,000–$64,000), new short-term funds entering the market are collectively at a loss, and bullish confidence is nearly shattered. Just a few days ago, stimulated by the U.S. Treasury's unexpectedly doubled repurchase of U.S. bonds, prices broke through the STH cost base near $72,000 with strong volume, surging all the way to $80,000. These are all short-term news-driven stimuli; don't assume the bull market has started, but the bulls have indeed returned. Once the price stabilizes above $72,000 as it has recently (watch for pullbacks), all these short-term holders will see their positions turn profitable on paper. In on-chain behavior, their mindset will instantly switch from "desperately seeking to break even" to "holding coins waiting for gains." So, the key is to see how far the pullback goes; as long as $72,000 holds, breaking through $83,000 is only a matter of time.
