诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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The battle for L2 has long been about more than just TPS. The three chains $ARB, $OP, and $POL compete to see who can truly implement payments and adoption:
ARB leads in TVL and transaction volume. Arbitrum One has locked $3 billion, with 4 million daily transactions, boasting the thickest DeFi foundation.
Technically: today it fell back below the cluster of moving averages, with resistance at 0.188-0.190 where MA5, MA10, and MA20 converge. Fortunately, MA60 (0.170) below provides a buffer, indicating a break of short-term support but no decisive breakdown.
OP uses public goods to build its ecosystem. Optimism pursues Superchain and retrospective public goods funding, with $2 billion locked and 2.8 million daily transactions.
OP has retraced 25% from the 20-day high of 0.1625 and is currently resting on MA60 (0.1177). This is the last moving average; if it breaks below, the next support is at 0.1.
POL is focused on payments. Polygon recently acquired Coinme to establish a licensed payment platform in the US, with stablecoin transfers exceeding $3 trillion cumulatively, supporting tens of millions of payments per second on-chain, and has also partnered with TRON.
POL is the worst off, having fallen below all five moving averages, with an RSI of 39.3—the lowest among the three—and volume shrunk to 50% of the past 20 days. There is no buying support, no rebound, a classic late-stage downtrend pattern.
This trend is toxic. I originally thought the bull market would continue, but it turned out to be a double liquidation of longs and shorts, really screwing everyone over!
Originally, after $BTC rose for 3 consecutive days, it matched my previous judgment that it would break out of the triangle zone. Plus, the macro environment had improved, so I thought the bull market would continue.
But today BTC liquidated 166 million, with longs accounting for 95 million, or 60%. In the morning, shorts were squeezed, but in the afternoon the price dropped from 84,900 to 82,000, breaking through four moving averages from MA60 (83,368) to MA5 (82,460). All the ones getting hit were leveraged long positions chasing the price.
ETH also liquidated 90 million. In the morning, shorts were the majority, but now longs account for 55%. It fell to 2,400 in the afternoon, and all liquidations were longs.
It couldn't even hold MA5 at 2,428. All five moving averages from MA5 (2,428) to MA60 (2,568) are pressing down from above. RSI at 40.8 is approaching oversold. It steadily declined to 2,395 today without any decent rebound, and it might continue to break below the 20-day low of 2,317.
ZEC is a bit better because it didn't fall much, so there weren't many liquidations in the afternoon. Of the 17 million liquidated, shorts still account for 55%.
The surge from 1,048 to 1,368 in the morning did indeed stand above MA5 at 1,185, MA10 at 1,211, and MA20 at 1,227. Unfortunately, it just missed breaking MA30 at 1,315.
+25.09%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 18:39
Why has this wave of $ZEC performed so well, significantly outperforming $ETH and even $BTC?
Because in the past two months, it has just been part of the privacy coin narrative. Since it launched the US spot ETF in August, both institutional long-term funds and market speculative funds have been buying it.
Moreover, its chip structure is very thin, so even a bit of buying pressure can push it up sharply.
ZEC is currently the only mainstream coin with an upward trend. It has now risen above MA5, MA10, and MA20 (1185-1227), with an RSI of 51, slightly bullish, and a 7-day increase of 7.4%, leading the pack. However, it was pushed back from 1368 today, and MA30 is still pressing down overhead, so it probably won't break through.
But ETH is indeed too weak, having just dropped from the high of 2526. MA10, MA20, MA30, and MA60 (2437-2568) are all pressing down, forming a bearish alignment. RSI is 40.8, close to the oversold boundary, with the next defense line at the 20-day low of 2317.
BTC is also weak, having fallen back to 82,000, breaking below the previously held MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA30, with only MA60 at 81,279 still supporting the bottom. RSI is 48.1, right at the midpoint. This rebound is clearly over...#ETF买盘持续回流，BTC为何仍未走强？
+9.77%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 18:12
Everyone must buy the leader; in the same sector, some get the meat while others get the broth. Those who don't buy the leader and go for the second in line either end up with the broth or suffer even worse losses.
1. $HYPE is the leader in perpetual contract DEXs. Hyperliquid's trading volume leads with a cliff-like advantage, accounting for 85% of the entire DEX market's daily volume. The protocol income over 30 days is nearly $70 million, with an annualized income close to 1 billion, making it fundamentally the strongest.
HYPE has been declining all the way; MA5 and MA10 (79.3, 79.7) have both been breached. RSI at 40.6 is the lowest in nearly two weeks. It has already broken down, and it seems that even 76.15 may not hold.
2. $ASTER is the second but quite weak because its daily trading volume is only 1.55 billion, accounting for just 8.5% of the entire DEX market. The open interest of 1.3 billion looks decent, but the top ten addresses control 93%, putting heavy selling pressure on the tokens.
No one plays with ASTER; its trading volume has halved. Its five moving averages from MA5 to MA60 are all squeezed within a narrow range of 0.704-0.718. The current price is right in the middle, and RSI at 49.7 is exactly at the midpoint, just waiting for a volume breakout to confirm direction.
3. $UNI is the largest spot DEX leader. The v4 30-day volume surged to 440 billion, and almost all public chains regard it as one of their main DEXs.
But UNI dropped straight from 7.7 to 7.08, with a bearish candle losing the support of MA5, MA10, and MA60 converging at 7.27. RSI is 42.7. The next key levels are the psychological 7.0 and 6.742, which are the most watched support points this month.
+21.29%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 15:38
Sun Ge is still awesome, started hoarding $PEPE on the 18th, no need to shout orders, it rose 22% in 3 days, way more impressive than Musk who can't move $DOGE and Chuanzi's banquet that can't move $TRUMP:
1. PEPE's chips are more concentrated, the top ten addresses control nearly 80%, this takeoff wave hasn't even seen any profit-taking pressure.
Now the price is above all moving averages MA5, MA10, MA20, MA30, MA60, and the volume in the last 5 days is basically the same as the previous 20 days, indicating a volume-driven surge. It pulled back 4% today to catch a breath, which is normal now.
2. DOGE has truly become the anchor of the meme market, clearly holding 40% of the meme market cap, the undisputed leader, but the turnover rate is only 6.9%, basically no one is trading it.
From a technical perspective, it's a standard bearish alignment grinding downwards: MA5 0.0801 > MA10 0.0808 > MA20 0.085 > MA30, all pressing above the coin price. Now RSI is 43.5, volume is only 60% of the previous 20 days, likely to test if it will break below 0.076.
3. TRUMP is really miserable, completely crushed by Chuanzi. Turnover rate is only 38%, basically no one is playing it anymore, after all, it hit all the political meme landmines.
It’s the worst hit, dropping from the 60-day high of 3.067 all the way down to 1.658, more than halved, MA60 (2.083) is the heaviest resistance above, RSI 44 hasn’t even gathered energy for a rebound.
It’s only been 3 days since the rise, and the momentum hasn’t even warmed up yet, but there’s already a new mess with the war involving Iran. How will $SOL, $XRP, and $BCH perform going forward?
1. SOL Solana just completed an epic technical upgrade, but unfortunately it coincided with cautious capital and negative news from the treasury side, so it didn’t trigger a speculative rally.
However, its bottoming is quite solid. The round number 100 was defended during three tests on the 17th, 18th, and 21st. It’s now basically moving along MA5 and MA10. But MA20, MA30, and MA60 (108.4-112.9) are pressing down from above, and RSI is close to 60, so it’s probably hard to break through without positive news and volume support.
2. XRP Ripple’s recent move has been relatively comfortable. The ETF just reached over 100 million in scale within a month. Although on-chain whales recently sold over 100 million tokens, most were absorbed by institutional ETFs.
This is reflected in the price action, rebounding from 1.25 to 1.35, which is quite strong. However, retail investors are not very enthusiastic; RSI at 42.6 is still a bit weak, and volume is only 50% of the past 20 days, indicating a low-volume rise without much capital attention.
3. BCH had a previous speculative wave on quantum resistance narratives, so now it’s been retreating steadily. Although it has rebounded in recent days and stands on MA5, MA10, and the 60-day moving average, MA20 (286) and MA30 (298) remain as resistance levels unchanged, representing just a typical pullback within a downtrend.
+15.14%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 12:00
It's often said that platform tokens rely on burn stories. But now with the general market rise, the real activity levels of BNB, HYPE, and OKB are far more exciting than the burn narratives.
Yesterday, the BSC chain had 16 million daily transactions, active addresses surged to 2.2 million, TVL climbed to 5.69 billion, and on-chain stablecoin volume reached 12 billion. With such a robust ecosystem and heavy traffic, it's normal for BNB to be rising sharply.
Currently, $BNB has reclaimed MA5, MA10 (733, 731), and the 60-day moving average, with RSI at 54, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish stance. However, it still faces resistance at MA20 and MA30 (747, 754.5). Without breaking above 754, a reversal can't be confirmed.
$HYPE boasts impressive trading volume; Hyperliquid's TVL is 7.13 billion, 30-day perpetual trading volume is nearly 200 billion, and protocol revenue annualizes close to 700 million, making it the strongest revenue model and the most active on-chain.
RSI at 59.4 is the highest across the board, and the price stands above MA5 and MA10, but MA20 (83.8) and MA30 (85.9) form a solid resistance wall. Whether it can break above 83.8 with volume this week will determine if it's a reversal or just a rebound.
$OKB's X Layer ecosystem is improving, with TVL at 166 million and daily DEX volume at 43 million. Its rise is somewhat one-sided due to high ecosystem concentration.
From a technical perspective, OKB is in a downtrend under MA10, MA20, and MA30 resistance, barely holding above MA5 now, with RSI at 48.1, which is relatively low. We need to see when positive ecosystem developments will be reflected in OKB.
+18.68%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 10:22
The first three bear markets lasted 361, 377, and 411 days respectively; this round has already lasted 359 days, so time is also on the bulls' side.
$BTC has been rising for the 3rd day, and ETF funds have finally turned into net inflows. Although the volume is a bit low, the short-term holders' chip ratio has dropped to 16%, indicating that selling pressure is not heavy.
Technically, RSI is 55.6, standing above MA20 at 83144. The upper resistance at 84900 is yesterday's high, and it hasn't broken through the 85000 psychological level.
$ETH finally did something decent: it reclaimed 2500 and also liquidated 62.39 million shorts, accounting for nearly 70% of the total liquidations across all varieties.
Technically, RSI is 44.3, just recovering MA20 at 2514, with today's low at 2437 as the first defense line. The long-short ratio next door is 2.12, also leaning bullish.
ZCSH had a single-day inflow of 15.2 million, reversing the continuous outflows of the past few days. There is also a small fundamental positive: THORChain will launch v3.21 on Thursday, restoring $ZEC's native deposit and withdrawal.
Technically, yesterday's high was 1368, just slightly above MA30 at 1315, with RSI at 49.9 just over half.
Open short positions increased by 20% yesterday, and market leverage is still mainly bullish. A big player even said in an interview: the stronger AI is, the more valuable financial privacy becomes, and ZEC will reach 5000 dollars! #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限
+277.14 USDT
+29.85%Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 08:43
What is $DOOD, why has it surged so high, and can it continue to rise?
1. It is the token of the Doodles NFT project, launched in May last year, with a total supply of 10 billion and about 7.8 billion in circulation. 30% was airdropped to NFT holders. Usually, this is a "quiet small-cap coin," but today it exploded.
2. It doubled in one day, with a 24h trading volume of 200 million, which is 6.6 times its market cap turnover.
This is purely an emotional play. Two core drivers:
Korean Upbit leading the trend: DOOD had a single-day trading volume exceeding 100 million on Upbit, accounting for about 10% of the entire exchange's volume at that time, making it the most actively traded coin on the exchange—a typical Korean retail investor speculation.
Social media suddenly exploded: AltRank soared from 761 to 10, Galaxy Score from 59 to 93.2, with 142,000 posts and 82,000 interactions in 24h, igniting FOMO.
This is a pure squeeze of low circulating supply + Korean buying pressure + social media fermentation, not a fundamental-driven market.
Currently, the 1-hour RSI is 87.4, indicating severe overbought conditions; the top 10 addresses hold 70.6% concentration (high chip concentration, easy to dump), and the Gate.io order book is still thin. Chasing the high is like catching a flying knife.
