Global Macro Guidance for August 17–23: The data has already provided the answer; the U.S. economy has shifted from "anti-inflation" to "stall prevention." This week requires verification, with the July FOMC meeting minutes feedback on the Fed's future expectations becoming the focus. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks and continue to be latent key risks! The macro environment this week is not optimistic. Market anchors are mainly energy and inflation expectations, while the U.S. economy has already moved from anti-inflation expectations to the dangerous edge of stall prevention. If the already fragile economic expectations for energy rebound, beware of rising "stagflation" expectations. The biggest macro change this week is the shift from macro data to policy interpretation and verification. Last week, our macro data provided three answers: Has inflation spiraled out of control again? Temporarily, no. Has U.S. demand weakened? Yes, and significantly more than market expectations. Is the soft landing expectation valid? The short-term soft landing expectation has been shaken. This week, the data interpretation and verification aim to answer three questions: How hawkish was the July Fed meeting minutes? Is the Fed alert to the risk of economic stall? How does the Fed view the risks of inflation and economic stall? Is the U.S. consumer economy experiencing a short-term stall or an expansion of systemic risk? Are crude oil and Japan reintroducing overall inflation or even U.S. stagflation expectations, as well as liquidity risks!? First, the Fed meeting minutes: How hawkish was July? What were the hawkish focuses? Did it interpret employment risks? Did it anticipate economic stall risks in advance? There are no scheduled Fed official speeches this week, and Wash has no speaking agenda, which means that in the face of last week's data, the market cannot promptly obtain Fed officials'...

Summary and analysis of the latest US-Iran developments on August 21: 1. The US has announced a new round of sanctions next week targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon and its financial networks related to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force. It should be noted that these sanctions complement those against Iran, clearly indicating the US's attempt to impose comprehensive economic sanctions on all Iranian forces in the Middle East. 2. The Houthi forces have once again attacked Saudi energy facilities, seen as a spillover of US-Iran geopolitical risks. 3. The latest Kpler data shows that on Thursday only 7 trackable commodity ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, half the 14 ships on Wednesday; among them, 4 entered the Persian Gulf and 3 exited, with no VLCC large tankers. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 4. Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf officially responded to the US economic blockade by strengthening economic integration between Iran and Iraq and reducing dependence on the US dollar, demonstrating determination for economic resistance. 5. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that Iran's military is prepared to respond to US sanctions on land, sea, air, and cyber fronts, meaning that besides the IRGC, the regular Iranian army is also showing a tough military stance, responding to economic sanctions with military threats. 6. The Iranian President stated that given Iran's current strong position, the war should end. I believe the key point is that the Iranian President is politically laying the groundwork for ending the war. Reviewing previous statements: the Iranian President emphasized that the previous agreement with the US was not a portrait → emphasized that Iran has already achieved victory → emphasized that Iran is now in a position of strength and dignity → proposed that the war should end. This is a complete political set.

Since the data temporarily validates the price increase of #Bitcoin, where should we look back on the market? After the price broke through 74,200, it still maintained strong momentum. Continuing yesterday's ETF and net capital inflow again broke a three-month high, so the upward potential needs to keep opening. 74,200 is the first resistance of the Fibonacci rebound from the bottom range; a rebound to this point is a weak rebound. Around 84,000 is a completion of a regular rebound, and around 92,000 is a strong rebound. Referring to this logic, combined with the current sufficient data momentum, the next key point is to watch the situation around 84,000, especially focusing on whether this rebound can break through the previous daily high near 82,600. Whether it can break a new high indicates different subsequent judgment logic: a) If the rebound breaks a new high, reaching 84,000 to complete a regular rebound, BTC has effectively completed bottoming out, moving out of the weak zone. The probability of a subsequent drop back to 58,000–60,000 is small, and the bottom range bottoming is likely completed. After the next correction, it will be the opportunity to start a new trend. b) If the rebound does not break a new high and stops in the 80,000–82,000 range, caution is needed for whether the next correction will break a new low. Referring to the previous daily trend, it is necessary to carefully verify whether a new low is broken and whether the bottom range bottoming is completed. Whether a new trend starts later depends on whether effective bottoming is achieved. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Honestly, from a macro perspective and the risk market perspective represented by the US stock market, $B

Yesterday we mentioned that besides focusing on the macro side and policy-driven benefits for #Bitcoin, the upcoming rise should be more data-driven, especially BTC's ETF and mainstream funds in the crypto market. On August 20, BTC ETF net inflow was 606.3 million, higher than 517 million on August 19. The ETF net inflow exceeded the previous day, setting a new three-month high record, clearly showing that buying sentiment remains strong. August 20 crypto market data: 1. Market cap increase is still concentrated in #BTC and #ETH, with their share rising, while altcoins' share is compressed. Market optimism has not further spread, mainly due to poor altcoin narratives. 2. Trading volume is flat compared to yesterday, concentrated in $BTC and ETH, with trading activity continuing. 3. Total net capital inflow is 700 million, including USDC net inflow of 632 million and USDT net inflow of 54 million. Compared to yesterday, net inflows are focused on mainstream funds, which is positive. Summary of today's data: Combining ETF and crypto market data, the current trend can no longer be judged simply as short-covering. Although the macro environment is unfavorable and policy uncertainty remains high, market sentiment is still willing to pay for it, which is important. Next, watch the ETF data released tomorrow. If net inflows continue to be 300-500 million, and crypto market trading volume and net capital inflows remain steady, it indicates that data further validates the price and will become the main driver for short-term price stabilization. From the crypto data side, the main driving force comes from US-based funds.