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TraderS | 缺德道人
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前面两条政治因素跑的有点远了，也不能证伪，所以我们再往回拉拉从资本角度解析下
这次 $SPCX 财报最大亮点无非是盈利超预期，其中互联业务23.67亿美元，约占85%，SI业务4.31亿美元，航天业务亏损700万美元
那这个盈利是怎么来的呢？很大一部原因是算力租赁扭亏为盈，本质上还是左手倒右手那一套
75.6亿SI收入的大头来自Anthropic和谷歌，Anthropic的经营现金流覆盖不了算力账单，缺口由谷歌、亚马逊的融资轮填补
然后谷歌既是Anthropic的投资人、又是SpaceX的租客、还持有SpaceX约4.18%股份
等于说钱从谷歌出发经Anthropic回到SpaceX，再以股权收益回到谷歌形成了闭环。这是当下美股支撑高估值的典型手法，在英伟达循环中更是得到了充分的证明，只是这次链条更长，磨损可能也更大
在当下的市场里，无论是否盈利，敢于花钱被市场还能被认为是对盈利预期有信心的标志，所以某种意义上来说，Anthropic烧钱的力度反而支撑了它的IPO估值
TraderS | 缺德道人
Following this line of thought, more evidence can be found. If we follow the Q2 earnings report interval of 35 days, the Q3 earnings report should have originally been released on November 4th, just one day after the midterm elections. However, this time it was moved up by two weeks and only announced four days in advance.
Combined with previous coordinated actions:
September 29: Trump's executive order → October 4: SI renaming
October 7: Trump's account → October 19: stock gift
October 15: Roadster release
October 20: earnings report release plus merger
These pre-arranged steps, combined with one of the best reports in history and Q1 2027 guidance, represent six major positive factors launched intensively. Against this backdrop, a jump above 160 cannot be considered high; in the coming days, the price must at least break the recent high of 176 to truly indicate strength.
Even if Trump loses both houses after the midterms, Musk will still need him in many areas, such as:
Pentagon orders
National security approval for divestiture of Chinese business during merger review
Satellite spectrum, environmental assessment exemptions, computing power procurement
However, everything has two sides. Musk using up his ammunition before the election also means there will be a relatively long positive gap after the election, lacking strong catalysts except for Starship 15. At this time, if market liquidity is insufficient and lock-up selling pressure occurs, the stock price will face significant pressure.
Moreover, if the Democrats win the midterms, they may target Musk in areas like stock gifts, contracts, and exemptions. But as a leading figure in American high-tech, Musk still has many chips to play. As long as he timely shifts and aligns with the next administration, he can continue to sail smoothly. $SPCX
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