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babala又赚钱了
Show original ETHUSDTperpetual75xBuyOpen position
#BTC加速拉升,资金还能继续接力吗?
$ETH 这波是真的把空头打懵了!
前两天三令令令五申申申绝对不要空!
前面还在讨论2000是不是假突破,现在价格已经一路冲到2440附近。从1900到2440,短时间接近30%的涨幅,2000、2200、2300几个压力位几乎全部被连续打穿。
这轮上涨不是一个原因,而是几股力量同时共振:
✔ 美国财政部提高长端国债回购规模,市场对流动性的预期明显改善,美债收益率回落,风险资产集体反弹。
✔ BTC冲上7.7万美元附近,打开了整个加密市场的上涨空间,资金随后开始向弹性更大的ETH扩散。
✔ 美国现货ETH ETF连续四个交易日净流入,累计约5.09亿美元,说明这一轮不只有合约逼空,现货端同样有资金承接。
✔ ETH突破2000以后,大量空单被迫回补,再叠加追涨资金和量化买盘,行情从普通反弹直接变成了加速上涨。
✔ ETH/BTC也在走强,说明ETH已经不只是跟涨BTC,而是出现了自己的补涨行情。
从价格结构看,2000这次已经不能简单叫假突破。假突破通常是冲上去以后迅速跌回原区间,但ETH突破2000后又向上扩展了400多美元,价格、资金流和相对强弱都给出了进一步确认。
不过真突破不代表当前位置可以无脑追高。
✔ 2440—2500:当前最关键的压力区
✔ 放量站稳2500:有机会继续挑战2600—2700
✔ 2380—2400:短线第一支撑
✔ 2300—2320:这轮上涨的重要防守区
✔ 跌破2300:可能进一步回踩2200
我的判断依然偏多,这轮更像流动性预期改善、现货资金流入和空头挤压共同推动的趋势突破。
但ETH已经连续快速拉升,当前追高的风险明显高于1900—2200区域。最健康的走势不是继续每天暴涨,而是在2300—2400上方震荡换手,把浮动筹码清理掉,再继续选择方向。
看多不等于无脑追高,牛市里最容易犯的错,除了踏空,就是看到连续大阳线以后突然失去纪律。
#SEC proposed the "Crypto Asset Regulation" draft, CLARITY Act to be reviewed in September $ETH
ETH is really not pretending anymore this time!
Absolutely do not short!
The price surged from around 1905 to 2000, nearly a 100-point increase in a short time. Earlier, there was discussion about whether it could break 1950, but ETH directly touched 2000.
Why did this round suddenly rise so violently?
First, BTC's rebound drove overall market sentiment. After BTC strengthened again, risk appetite returned, and ETH, as the largest high-elasticity asset by market cap, naturally became the main direction for capital inflow.
But this time ETH did not simply follow BTC's rise.
ETH/BTC also strengthened simultaneously, indicating that market funds are gradually shifting from "only buying BTC" to ETH, showing a clear relative strength for ETH this round.
Second, spot funds are also continuously supporting.
The US spot ETH ETFs recently reported net inflows of about $30.9 million and $71.4 million on two announced trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day inflow of about $64.7 million.
This shows the rise is not purely driven by the futures market itself; there is real buying on the spot side, providing ETH with a more stable bottom support.
Third, the chain reaction brought by technical breakthroughs.
ETH had been consolidating repeatedly around 1900, with a large accumulation of short positions above 1920 and 1950. Once the price consecutively breaks these resistance levels, short stop-losses, breakout chasing, and quant buying trigger simultaneously, causing a very obvious acceleration.
✔ 1900–1905 support confirmed effective
✔ 1920 resistance quickly reclaimed
✔ No obvious pause after breaking 1950
✔ Volume increased simultaneously
✔ Short covering further amplified the speed of the rise
So this surge is not due to a sudden super positive news, but the simultaneous occurrence of BTC rebound, ETF capital inflow, technical structure breakthrough, and short covering, which ultimately pushed ETH directly to 2000.
The most important question now is no longer whether ETH can reach 2000, but whether 2000 can truly hold.
Touching 2000 and holding 2000 are completely different.
If ETH can close steadily above 2000 on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart and retest the 1980–2000 zone without breaking it, then 2000 has the chance to turn from resistance into new support. Afterwards, attention can shift to 2030–2050, and in a strong scenario, even challenge 2080–2100.
But if the price only quickly spikes around 2000 and then falls back below 1980, be cautious of a high spike followed by a pullback after a concentrated short squeeze. Then first watch if 1950 can hold; if 1950 breaks, it may retest 1920 again.
A truly strong market is not about how fast a single candle rises, but whether it can consolidate after the rise.
I remain bullish, but at this position, it is no longer suitable to blindly chase big green candles.
The healthiest move is to break 2000, then retest to shake out the chasing longs, and then continue upward.
Before, 2000 was pressing down ETH; now it depends on whether ETH can step on 2000 and hold it underfoot!
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