TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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If I had to find a reason for today's drop, it might be because the $META earnings report made the market feel that AI spending is a bottomless pit that can't be filled quickly enough.
Issuing non-voting Class C shares to raise funds = the market thinks "even Meta can't sustain AI capex with operating cash flow," which explains why the stock rose first then fell after the earnings release.
Meta increasing spending is a cost fear, Tesla cutting spending is a retreat signal, so AI trading is getting hit from both sides.
On top of that, WTI broke above 100 again today and there is no sign of easing from Iran, making things worse.
But fortunately, US Treasury yields are still declining, so I'm not worried about today's pullback; instead, I see it as an opportunity.
Next week, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon will release earnings, so the market will continue to fluctuate actively. Buy after a big drop, sell after a big rise; trading swings is better than constantly riding a roller coaster that wears down your mindset. After all, taking profits is always right.
Also, the scary story of the "AI bottomless pit" theoretically should hit SpaceX the hardest, but luckily $SPCX has covered it with rental income. The big impact might come next year when the market starts cutting profits, but for now, it's still about cutting capital expenditures.
After last night's rebound, the market continued to pull back during the day today. Gold even dropped to a recent new low. Since the CPI data released last week predicted that this week would be a volatile market, and the bottom range is quite clear now, this is another opportunity for those who regretted getting caught by the false breakouts twice before.
The market will most likely become clearer around next week's FOMC meeting. Still optimistic about November
Tesla $TSLA earnings report has been released, confirming several previous viewpoints:
1. The merger is most favorable to Musk when SPCX is relatively high and TSLA is relatively low.
2. This time, SPCX's earnings report is better, while TSLA's is worse.
3. Regardless of the methods used, SPCX stacked all the positive factors in that event.
4. TSLA's capital expenditure was reduced from $25 billion to $20 billion; revenue was $28.05 billion, basically flat year-over-year, slightly below analysts' expectation of $28.13 billion; but adjusted EPS was $0.48, about 9% higher than analysts' expectations.
5. No mention of the merger at Tesla's earnings call; merger-related headlines would cause arbitrageurs to sell SPCX, and tonight 1.3 billion shares will be unlocked — before this batch unlocks, he chooses not to give arbitrageurs any ammunition; silence is protection for SPCX.
6. Last week's release of the flying car to attract attention to hedge poor performance now makes sense.
7. Investors are gradually losing interest in Tesla's core automotive business; this sector no longer has newer, cooler stories to tell, which is one of the important reasons driving the merger — one side has money but no story, the other has a story but lacks money.
In summary, after Tesla's earnings release, the stock price fell. The merger of the two will likely be the main storyline in the coming year. With continuous back-and-forth, the stock price will inevitably fluctuate, and there will be many arbitrage opportunities between the two stocks. #特斯拉Q3汽车毛利率回升，自由现金流转正
After the US stock market opened today, the seesaw logic between SPCX and the three major memory stocks seems to have been reactivated. However, tomorrow SPCX will have 1.3 billion shares unlocked. Although previous unlocks did not cause a significant drop in the stock price, this time is indeed different from before.
First, 1.3 billion compared to 319 million, four times the usual amount.
Second, this round of unlocking is mainly by institutions and VCs, but their probability of selling is lower than that of employees, which is good news.
The biggest difference lies in the price. Previous unlocks were at low price levels with weak selling pressure, but this time it hits the sweet spot. If the selling pressure is heavy, there is a possibility of a drop similar to Intel's post-market surge after earnings in July, followed by two declines.
At this time, the three major memory stocks are at relatively low prices, indicating that the seesaw logic between the two may reverse starting tomorrow.
However, considering political factors, Musk-related stocks are unlikely to fall sharply before the November 3 midterm elections, especially since Tesla will release its earnings report after the market today, which may further announce merger news to boost confidence.
So, looking at this comprehensively, even if the seesaw logic reverses, SPCX may experience box range fluctuations, while the memory stocks may outperform the market later by rebounding strongly based on earnings reports. $SPCX $SNDK #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
TraderS | 缺德道人
The first two political factors went a bit off track and can't be falsified, so let's pull back and analyze from a capital perspective.
The biggest highlight of this $SPCX earnings report is the profit exceeding expectations, with internet business at $2.367 billion, about 85%, SI business at $431 million, and aerospace business losing $7 million.
So how did this profit come about? A large part is that computing power leasing turned from loss to profit, essentially just moving money from one hand to the other.
The bulk of the $7.56 billion SI revenue comes from Anthropic and Google. Anthropic's operating cash flow can't cover the computing power bills, and the gap is filled by financing rounds from Google and Amazon.
Google is both an investor in Anthropic, a tenant of SpaceX, and holds about 4.18% of SpaceX shares.
In other words, money starts from Google, goes through Anthropic back to SpaceX, and then returns to Google as equity income, forming a closed loop. This is a typical method supporting high valuations in the current US stock market, fully demonstrated in the Nvidia cycle, but this time the chain is longer and the friction might be greater.
In today's market, whether profitable or not, daring to spend money is still seen as a sign of confidence in profit expectations, so in a sense, Anthropic's cash burn actually supports its IPO valuation
The first two political factors went a bit off track and can't be falsified, so let's pull back and analyze from a capital perspective.
The biggest highlight of this $SPCX earnings report is the profit exceeding expectations, with internet business at $2.367 billion, about 85%, SI business at $431 million, and aerospace business losing $7 million.
So how did this profit come about? A large part is that computing power leasing turned from loss to profit, essentially just moving money from one hand to the other.
The bulk of the $7.56 billion SI revenue comes from Anthropic and Google. Anthropic's operating cash flow can't cover the computing power bills, and the gap is filled by financing rounds from Google and Amazon.
Google is both an investor in Anthropic, a tenant of SpaceX, and holds about 4.18% of SpaceX shares.
In other words, money starts from Google, goes through Anthropic back to SpaceX, and then returns to Google as equity income, forming a closed loop. This is a typical method supporting high valuations in the current US stock market, fully demonstrated in the Nvidia cycle, but this time the chain is longer and the friction might be greater.
In today's market, whether profitable or not, daring to spend money is still seen as a sign of confidence in profit expectations, so in a sense, Anthropic's cash burn actually supports its IPO valuation
TraderS | 缺德道人
Following this line of thought, more evidence can be found. If we follow the Q2 earnings report interval of 35 days, the Q3 earnings report should have originally been released on November 4th, just one day after the midterm elections. However, this time it was moved up by two weeks and only announced four days in advance.
Combined with previous coordinated actions:
September 29: Trump's executive order → October 4: SI renaming
October 7: Trump's account → October 19: stock gift
October 15: Roadster release
October 20: earnings report release plus merger
These pre-arranged steps, combined with one of the best reports in history and Q1 2027 guidance, represent six major positive factors launched intensively. Against this backdrop, a jump above 160 cannot be considered high; in the coming days, the price must at least break the recent high of 176 to truly indicate strength.
Even if Trump loses both houses after the midterms, Musk will still need him in many areas, such as:
Pentagon orders
National security approval for divestiture of Chinese business during merger review
Satellite spectrum, environmental assessment exemptions, computing power procurement
However, everything has two sides. Musk using up his ammunition before the election also means there will be a relatively long positive gap after the election, lacking strong catalysts except for Starship 15. At this time, if market liquidity is insufficient and lock-up selling pressure occurs, the stock price will face significant pressure.
Moreover, if the Democrats win the midterms, they may target Musk in areas like stock gifts, contracts, and exemptions. But as a leading figure in American high-tech, Musk still has many chips to play. As long as he timely shifts and aligns with the next administration, he can continue to sail smoothly. $SPCX
For Iran, there really is no reason to ease tensions before the midterm elections, as a divided United States best serves Iran's interests.
Oil prices are still fluctuating at high levels; after WTI fell yesterday, it briefly rebounded above 100 today.
If high oil prices persist, one more factor supporting a reversal of the US stock market rebound will be lost. $CL #美国拟恢复受制裁油轮运营
Following this line of thought, more evidence can be found. If we follow the Q2 earnings report interval of 35 days, the Q3 earnings report should have originally been released on November 4th, just one day after the midterm elections. However, this time it was moved up by two weeks and only announced four days in advance.
Combined with previous coordinated actions:
September 29: Trump's executive order → October 4: SI renaming
October 7: Trump's account → October 19: stock gift
October 15: Roadster release
October 20: earnings report release plus merger
These pre-arranged steps, combined with one of the best reports in history and Q1 2027 guidance, represent six major positive factors launched intensively. Against this backdrop, a jump above 160 cannot be considered high; in the coming days, the price must at least break the recent high of 176 to truly indicate strength.
Even if Trump loses both houses after the midterms, Musk will still need him in many areas, such as:
Pentagon orders
National security approval for divestiture of Chinese business during merger review
Satellite spectrum, environmental assessment exemptions, computing power procurement
However, everything has two sides. Musk using up his ammunition before the election also means there will be a relatively long positive gap after the election, lacking strong catalysts except for Starship 15. At this time, if market liquidity is insufficient and lock-up selling pressure occurs, the stock price will face significant pressure.
Moreover, if the Democrats win the midterms, they may target Musk in areas like stock gifts, contracts, and exemptions. But as a leading figure in American high-tech, Musk still has many chips to play. As long as he timely shifts and aligns with the next administration, he can continue to sail smoothly. $SPCX
TraderS | 缺德道人
I have an immature but worth-following direction: given how good $SPCX's earnings report is, the sharp rally after hours might have political economy factors.
With the midterm elections approaching, Trump's chances of winning are slim; it's basically a scenario where he at least loses the House and most likely loses both chambers.
As his close ally, whether Musk fights desperately or tries to turn the tide, he has to go all in before the election. That way, even if they lose, at least there will be good times during Trump's remaining two-year term, and in the future, they can gradually shift to investing in the next popular candidate #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力
I have an immature but worth-following direction: given how good $SPCX's earnings report is, the sharp rally after hours might have political economy factors.
With the midterm elections approaching, Trump's chances of winning are slim; it's basically a scenario where he at least loses the House and most likely loses both chambers.
As his close ally, whether Musk fights desperately or tries to turn the tide, he has to go all in before the election. That way, even if they lose, at least there will be good times during Trump's remaining two-year term, and in the future, they can gradually shift to investing in the next popular candidate #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力
Those who haven't gotten in yet, don't be like yesterday—first slapping your thigh, then chasing the rally, and finally getting stuck. This kind of peace talk news has been released countless times this year; the usual pattern is to release the news first, then go back and forth, and only after several twists and turns will it be confirmed.
During this process, there will still be opportunities to get in. Then the peace agreement will probably last briefly for a few weeks to one or two months at most. After that, we wait for the next round of tension to flare up, oil prices to rise again, and the stock market to fall again, repeating the cycle over and over. $CL
TraderS | 缺德道人
Look at what we said before the market opened: the current short-term market is undoubtedly all about oil prices. Once the situation eases and oil prices drop, risk assets will sharply rebound $CL
Look at what we said before the market opened: the current short-term market is undoubtedly all about oil prices. Once the situation eases and oil prices drop, risk assets will sharply rebound $CL
