交易员刺客
交易员刺客
刺客社区创始人，绿洲大学联合创始人，香港web3协会会员，新加坡区块链中文大使，推特华语区块链头部KOL，著名kol“飞哥定投策略”老师，2024年okx交易嘉年华第一名，2016年开始布道区块链。2026年打算完成8个挑战，3个挑战500到5wu，3个挑战4w到10wu，2个挑战1000到10wu。
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Yesterday 84000 short $BTC
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The only disciple @飞哥定投策略
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix is about to reveal its Q3 earnings on October 28. According to the market data forecast in the image, 75% of people are betting that its earnings will exceed expectations.
The market's optimistic logic is straightforward: AI server demand is still booming, HBM4 mass production is advancing, so the performance should not be bad. But the problem lies precisely in this 75% expectation. Recently, memory chip stocks have been on a roller coaster every day. The news a few days ago that Solidigm paused its IPO has already revealed the bottom line. At the current high valuation, the market no longer buys into pure cash-burning stories, and financing pace is clearly hindered.
When the earnings report comes out, there are basically two scenarios. First, if HBM4 shipments are indeed astonishing and profits greatly exceed expectations, the tech stock sentiment can stabilize. Second, if profit growth slows even slightly, or if there is any flaw in HBM4's mass production pace, then this 75% of funds will turn into the main force selling off. Expectations are set too high, leaving very little room for error.
This matter greatly impacts our broader market. Hynix is a global semiconductor bellwether; whether it can hold steady directly determines the risk appetite of the US tech sector. If tech stocks stabilize, BTC can catch a breather; if tech stocks get hit on valuation due to earnings, Bitcoin’s liquidity will also be drained, and the defense pressure at the 80,000 level will only increase.
In terms of strategy, I absolutely won’t gamble on this kind of blind box. I will focus strictly on the earnings release on the 28th. $SKHYNIX $SKHY
The recent trend of memory chip stocks is simply erratic; they suffered a sharp drop just the day before, and on October 23, SK Hynix and Micron rebounded again. But if you look at the real-time market at the bottom of the screenshot, it's all green again now. This kind of repeated sideways movement indicates that the divergence between bulls and bears has become extremely large.
Let's break down the underlying logic. The demand side is indeed solid; Western Digital has stated that AI-related storage demand remains strong, and major clients have even started discussing long-term supply for 2030 to 2031. This shows that the AI sector is truly lucrative.
So why is the market so conflicted? Look at the community comment below, which hits the nail on the head: "Solidigm suspends IPO research, indicating that AI storage's high valuation is hindering financing pace."
This is the core contradiction. SK Hynix suddenly announced it is halting the evaluation of its subsidiary Solidigm's IPO plan. Why stop? On the surface, they say growth prospects remain unchanged, but essentially, in the current environment of high valuations and high interest rates, the market is not buying into pure cash-burning hardware stories. Financing simply cannot get good prices and may even break below the issue price. The landlord has no extra grain either, so the financing pace can only be forced to hit the brakes.
This directly impacts our market. Semiconductors and AI hardware are global risk appetite indicators. Now that AI financing is blocked, the valuation logic of the entire tech sector will be re-evaluated. When funds see this situation, their first reaction is to contract defenses. $MU $SKHY #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is just around the corner. On the surface, the market generally expects no change in October, but brothers, take a close look at the underlying data in this chart—there are strong undercurrents beneath the surface.
The latest preliminary October S&P Global Composite PMI hit 57.6, with the Manufacturing PMI soaring to 56.0, marking a 53-month high. Even more critical, the increase in corporate selling prices is the fastest since August 2022. What does this mean? It means the U.S. economy is not in recession but rather heating up, and the root of inflation has not been removed.
The community comment at the bottom of the chart hits the nail on the head: "Pause is not a dovish pivot; 92.8% of pricing hides a December rate hike knife, the real signal is in the wording."
The trading strategy in recent days is very clear: before the meeting results are released, absolutely do not heavily bet on a one-sided move. If you hold long positions, take profits during this rebound; if you are out of the market, closely watch the post-meeting statement and capital flows. If Powell (or Waller) comes out hawkish and the market rebound is weak, we will follow the trend to short and take profits on the pullback. Don't be cannon fodder before the news lands; wait until the boot fully drops, then enter to pick up cheap chips. Keep cash in hand and wait for the wind to blow. $BTC
Experience and lessons learned from doing IRYS: from 7 liquidations to turning the account around
Yesterday, I truly experienced one of the darkest moments in my life. To be honest, I usually stick firmly to Bitcoin and never touch altcoins because I know there are crocodiles lurking beneath the surface. But yesterday, seeing the whole internet hyping IRYS, I couldn't resist and broke my rule. The result? The first trade blew up my position immediately. For the second trade, I wasn't convinced, so I opened a short grid around 0.12, thinking such a sharp pullback would surely correct, right? But the main force was completely unreasonable, a big bullish candle shot straight up to 0.4, wiping out my short position and grid instantly. For the third trade, I got anxious and reversed to open a long grid around 0.4, but the price plummeted like a kite with a broken string, crashing down to 0.06, causing my third liquidation. Watching my account reset to zero on the screen, at that moment I really felt like a purebred retail trader, being repeatedly trampled on the ground. But I didn't let my emotions completely swallow my rationality. I forced myself to stop, closed the trading interface, and calmed down firmly. Since I had fallen into the mud, I had to climb out myself. I immediately went to off-exchange C2C and converted 1 million RMB directly. This money wasn't for reckless revenge trading, but to redevelop my strategy. Like a detective, I started digging into this coin's fundamentals. What exactly is it for? Following the on-chain data, I laid out the top 100 holding addresses, identified who was highly controlling the market, and studied these whales' wash trading methods and pumping habits. I fed all this chip structure and underlying logic into a large model for simulation and analysis. Relying on intuition to trade crypto means being a retail trader for life. I painstakingly developed a completely
