Orbit Post Sitemap
Honestly, after $PONS dropped to just above 0.4, I’ve kind of gone numb.
At 0.6, I thought it had fallen too much; at 0.5, I thought it was about right, but it kept crashing further.
But today I suddenly realized, what I’m most worried about now isn’t it dropping another 10%.
It’s that everyone stops playing.
Why was PONS so explosive before?
It’s actually easy to understand.
When Robinhood Chain first took off, a bunch of people rushed over to launch tokens and issue coins; Pons was basically the busiest place during that time.
At its peak in early September, nearly 25,000 new tokens were issued from Pons in a single day, with daily fees close to 6 million USD.
Money, people, and attention all crowded in there, so naturally, PONS was in demand.
In the past 7 days, Pons’ fees have dropped to about 10.5 million USD total, averaging roughly 1.5 million per day. Compared to the peak of nearly 6 million per day, the hype has definitely cooled off a lot.
So now, I actually don’t want to keep guessing whether 0.4 is the bottom every day.
For something like a Meme Launchpad, price drops aren’t that scary.
As long as there are still people making money, losing money, issuing new tokens, and rushing in at midnight to catch the dip, there’s still another story to tell.
What’s truly scary is opening Robinhood Chain one day and finding that everyone’s too lazy to even talk about Pons anymore. At 5 AM on October 3, WLD dropped to 0.5264, leaving me at around -66.3% unrealized PnL. 😱 A little more downside and the position could have been wiped out. Thankfully, the dip recovered, and WLD later climbed to 0.6077, a new 40-day high. 🔥 The interesting part is volatility: 📊 WLD 24H volatility: 15.44%
📊 SAND 24H volatility: 41.52% With SAND moving that violently, a 30x position would be much harder to manage. Now the problem: 0.6077 is the current cycle high, so there isn't much histori🚨 SOMETHING IS SHIFTING IN THE STORAGE SECTOR
I wasn’t even planning to check the market this weekend… but one detail caught my attention.
SanDisk’s legal officer reportedly sold 600 shares on October 1, worth around $1.04M. On its own, that’s not enough to draw a conclusion.
But paired with previous insider selling, weaker-than-expected guidance, and fresh HDD production expansion news, the bigger picture deserves attention. 👀#DailyOrbit Weak nonfarm payrolls sharply reduced October rate-hike expectations, easing near-term pressure on BTC, ETH, and ZEC. But the outlook still hinges on mid-October CPI—hot inflation could quickly revive hike bets. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#SECCryptoCustodyRules #NvidiaRecordHigh $BTC being suppressed around 86800 Upward pressure continuously decreasing Bullish momentum weakening Subsequent liquidity can't keep up Liquidity relatively weak during National Day holiday Wait and see after holiday Currently mainly bearish view $ETH moving in sync with BTC But Ethereum seems bit stronger than BTC However not much better Currently also intraday consolidation Feels like wave will end after consolidation BTC returning to 120,000 basically unlikely now Stock tokenization has diveSTRK (Starknet) Value Prospect Outlook
STRK is the native token of Starknet, an Ethereum ZK-Rollup Layer 2 network. It relies on zk-STARK zero-knowledge proof technology and is a core infrastructure in the Ethereum scaling track, making it a key target in the current L2 and ZK technology sectors.
1. Core Value Highlights
1. Top-tier ZK underlying technology, Ethereum scaling infrastructure
Starknet uses zk-STARK zero-knowledge proofs, which offer fast proof generation and quantum resistance, making it a leading technology solution in the zero-knowledge field. It bundles a large number of off-chain transactions and submits them to the Ethereum mainnet for verification, significantly reducing Gas fees and increasing TPS, while fully inheriting Ethereum's security. Native account abstraction simplifies wallet interactions and facilitates large-scale user adoption, making it one of the core long-term scaling solutions for the Ethereum ecosystem.
2. Multi-scenario token applications with continuously improving value capture mechanisms
STRK has three core uses: paying network Gas fees, staking to participate in network consensus to ensure security, and governance voting to decide protocol upgrades. Future plans include a fee-burning mechanism where higher network transaction volume leads to more token burns, creating deflationary potential driven by on-chain activity. After the staking mechanism launches, a large amount of circulating STRK will be locked, reducing market sell pressure and enhancing the token's fundamental utility.
3. Continuous ecosystem expansion with diverse application deployments
The Starknet ecosystem covers DeFi, NFT, RWA (real-world assets), blockchain gaming, and other applications. Leveraging the advantage of account abstraction, it attracts a large number of developers. With the implementation of the STRK20 privacy framework supporting private transfers and asset custody, it attracts institutional-grade assets on-chain, opening incremental space for traditional asset tokenization. As an Ethereum L2, it inherits overflow traffic from Ethereum, and L2 transaction volume is expected to experience explosive growth during bull markets.
4. Track dividends and high institutional attention
ZK scaling is a long-term development mainline for blockchain, with the Ethereum ecosystem continuously migrating assets to L2. The StarkWare team has strong technical expertise and early-stage financing background, making it a foundational infrastructure target for long-term institutional layout. Compared to Meme coins, STRK's value depends on underlying network usage rather than short-term narrative speculation.The crypto market remains in a high-level oscillation phase, with bulls and bears constantly bouncing back and forth, with neither breakouts nor pullbacks sustained. Profit-taking positions accumulated earlier in the rise are starting to loosen, short-term funds are choosing to cash in, and market sentiment has cooled significantly. Meanwhile, the latest US nonfarm payrolls for September only increased by 29,000, significantly below market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Logically, weak employment may reinforce market expectations of a shift in monetary policy, but the market has not immediately seen a one-sided rally; instead, there is a phenomenon of "funds being realized after good news materializes." 📌 BTC is currently around $84,700, with a slight pullback within 24 hours. In the short term, first look for support at $84,000–$84,300, with further attention on $83,300–$83,600. As long as key support is not effectively broken, the current structure remains a high-level consolidation, temporarily more like a post-rally digestion phase rather than a clear trend reversal. If the above level holds above $86,000, there is a chance to test the $87,000–$87,400 area again; Conversely, if it breaks below $83,300, the volatility potential may further expand downward. 📌 ETH ETH is currently around $2,670, with short-term performance still weaker than BTC. Downward, focus on $2,620–$2,640, while above focus on the $2,720–$2,760 resistance zone. ETF funds have recently shifted from continuous inflows to outflows, which has cooled market momentum to chase gains. This level is not suitable for watching【Bearish · Short BTC】
1. BTC dropped from above 84,000, scaring many people who thought, "It's over, the low from yesterday broke, the trend is bad, better run."
2. But after watching the order book for half an hour, he found: this drop didn't come with much volume. What does that mean? It means spot traders aren't really fleeing; mainly, those who opened high-leverage long positions in the futures market got liquidated. In other words: leveraged traders got washed out, chips transferred to veterans, floating chips cleaned out.
3. What does a real bear turn look like?
- Heavy volume dump
- Spot market crashes together
- Each rebound weaker than the last — this time it's not. The price just touched around 82,900, then large buy orders pushed it back above 83,800. Bears got excited, but the fuel was actually prepared for the bulls.
4. His own strategy is simple: no guessing tops or bottoms, follow the structure.
- Around 84,000 now: don't chase
- Wait for a pullback to 83,300–83,800: buy in batches
- Stop loss: if it closes below 82,200, take the loss and exit, don't hold stubbornly
5. First target is 86,200, which is the upper edge of the previous dense trading zone; take half profits there. Then use the remaining position to aim for around 88,000. The risk-reward ratio is about 2.5 to 1, he thinks "this bet is worth it."
6. The simplest judgment: if the 83,000 spike low holds = short-term is still a bull market. If it really breaks, he'll be the first to run 🏃💨
In summary:
This post says "BEARISH" on the surface, but the real meaning is—don't be scared by low-volume shakeouts, buy the dip, exit on breaks, and don't get emotional.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
$BTC Starting October 3, 90% of the yield generated by idle stablecoins on the platform will reportedly go toward buying $HYPE on the market and burning it. At current rates, that could represent roughly $250M annualized. Where does the money come from?
Users deposit stablecoins → those funds generate yield → most of that yield is redirected into $HYPE buybacks and burns. That creates a second potential buyback engine: 💰 Trading fees → HYPE buybacks
🏦 Stablecoin yield → HYPE buybacks + burns The mo$AZTEC I was just complaining to a friend about this week's market, but I have to take back my words now, it's a bit awkward.
Yesterday afternoon, I saw AZTEC's rebound was weak, volume didn't keep up, and it softened as soon as it was pressured from above. I advised shorting at highs and not chasing longs.
Shorted in at 0.01715, covered at 0.01692, a +26.82% gain, timing was perfect, those on board should be waking up smiling.
Took 80% profit first, kept 20% at cost to protect, don't be greedy for the last bit, and don't give back profits on a rebound.
Panic comes from no plan, losses come from overthinking. Being out of position isn't a sin, reckless entries are the mistake. Now is not the time to rush, wait for the next shot, there will be more opportunities ahead.
$ETH $BTC 📉 Weak NFP, but $BTC still fell. Why?
The market quickly shifted from rate-cut hopes to concerns about inflation, oil, fiscal pressure, and higher long-term yields.
That pushed yields back up and weighed on gold, $BTC, and $ETH.
So the key isn’t just the jobs number—it’s where long-term rates go next. 👀
#DailyOrbit Guys, last night's nonfarm payroll data clearly leaned towards risk assets, but SOL didn't rise as expected; instead, it fluctuated back around $120. Currently, SOL is around $119.6, still weak in the short term. So here's the question: In September, US nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000 jobs, far below market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Why is SOL still not rising? I think there are three main reasons 👇 1️: ⃣ Good news materialized, turning into a selling point. This time, the nonfarm payrolls were not completely unexpected. Before the data was released, the market had already traded in the logic of "cooling employment → Fed rate hike pressure easing." After the data was realized, some funds chose to cash in profits, resulting in typical scenarios: expected rise → data release, → long positions taking profits, → price retreat. So, it's not that the good news has disappeared, but that the positive news has already been priced in in advance. 2️⃣ BTC failed to hold after surging, so SOL naturally came under pressure Yesterday, BTC briefly surged back to around $87,000 but then pulled back. Today, BTC has returned to the $84,000–$85,000 range, and overall market risk appetite has clearly cooled. SOL itself is more volatile than BTC, so when the market can't break upward, it's not easy for SOL to strengthen on its own. Simply put: BTC can't hold → market sentiment cools → Counterfeit is under pressure→ SOL returns to its volatility zone first. 3️⃣ Low liquidity at the weekend, SOL#USNFPDataCools Up 20%, and it looks like SAND is breaking out. But the positioning tells a different story: 🐂 Bulls are quietly retreating 🐻 Bears are building pressure 💰 Around 7M USDT in short positions are waiting for a pullback The higher SAND climbs, the more aggressive the short-side positioning becomes. Retail: “Charge!” 🚀 Smart money: “Stay patient.” At midnight, bulls were still controlling the market. Now the balance is shifting — bulls are fading while bears are stacking positionETH remains the same over the weekend: it neither broke above 2,800 nor fell below 2,630, continuing to be pressed within the range.
This kind of volatility is the most patience-draining but also the easiest time for false breakouts. The daily MACD has already shown divergence, with weakening momentum bars. If it cannot volume-wise reclaim above 2,750 soon, the bears will gain more influence.
Currently, focus on three key levels:
- 2,800: a breakout here means regaining control;
- 2,750: the short-term strength/weakness dividing line;
- 2,630: the lower boundary of the range; breaking below this calls for caution against a secondary drop.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, and high leverage fears these back-and-forth spikes the most. My approach remains the same: core positions stay calm, satellite positions are managed in batches at key levels; do not chase before confirmation, reduce risk first upon a breakout.
Don’t rush to bet on direction during volatility; wait for the market to choose its side.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Good morning, creators.
$BTC and $ETH are still moving sideways after their recent moves.
BTC is around $83.5K, with $82K–$83K as the key support zone. Reclaiming $85K could bring $87K back into play.
ETH is near $2.67K, holding $2.64K–$2.65K. A break above $2.74K could target $2.79K–$2.80K.
For now, both are respecting support. I’m waiting for the next breakout or breakdown to show the direction. 👀
#DailyOrbit glassnode says the 2025 rally buyers are dumping harder than anyone else this year.two cohorts sit underwater
1-2 year buyers average cost basis ~97k
6-12 month buyers average cost basis ~89k.btc
one group needs about 5% just to break even
the other needs about 15% and those 2025 rally bags are moving the most coins per day of any point in 2026.the people who bought the decline
are not selling. the supply is concentrated
one underwater cohort carrying the tape
not the whole holder
#DailyOrbit 🚨 $BTC + $ETH + $SOL + $ZEC BULLISH RECOVERY OR TRAP?
$BTC $84,820 → hold $84,760 → break $84,965
$ETH $2,680 → hold $2,678 → break $2,688
$SOL $119.61 → hold $119.50 → break $119.86
$ZEC $1,293 → hold $1,288 → break $1,303
BTC and SOL are showing stronger recovery structure, while ETH and ZEC still need key resistance reclaim.
Hold support → recovery stays alive.
Lose support → another pullback can develop.Analysis of the Driving Forces Behind OMI's Continuous Counter-Trend Rise
OMI is the native token of VeVe, a digital collectibles platform under ECOMI, focusing on authentic IP digital collectibles. It has shown an independent market trend during overall market corrections. The core driving forces for its rise are as follows:
1. Real business cash flow + transaction burn mechanism, inherently deflationary
VeVe sells digital collectibles of well-known IPs such as Marvel, Disney, and Star Wars. For every collectible transaction, 10% of the transaction amount is used to repurchase and burn OMI tokens, with on-chain burn records publicly verifiable.
The platform’s NFT sales generate real revenue; the more transactions, the more tokens are burned, continuously reducing circulating supply. During market downturns, the same amount of funds can repurchase more tokens, accelerating deflation. This mechanism is not just marketing narrative but is based on the platform’s IP collectible sales business, forming a positive cycle of “transaction → burn → supply contraction.”
2. Differentiated sector, not fluctuating in sync with ordinary altcoins
Most tokens are tied to DeFi or Meme sectors, while OMI belongs to the authentic IP digital collectibles sector, targeting general collectors rather than just crypto players.
When market funds withdraw from high-risk Meme and small-cap DeFi tokens, some capital shifts to IP collectibles and NFT sectors. VeVe holds many top-tier licensed IPs and is a leading platform in the digital collectibles sector, with stable demand for collectible releases. Its business independence is strong, and its market trend has weak correlation with BTC and altcoin sectors, making it easier to perform counter-trend.
3. Product iteration and updates, ecosystem activity rebound
VeVe recently launched a new version called OMI Unlimited, upgrading the collector reward system and staking benefits, and introducing the Master Collector advanced collector program, continuously enhancing user stickiness and boosting collectible transaction activity.
The platform operates on the Immutable X layer-2 network, enabling zero Gas NFT transactions, reducing user transaction costs, continuously attracting global collectors, driving platform transaction volume recovery, and increasing burn volume simultaneously, with fundamentals expected to keep improving.
4. Optimized token distribution, long-term collector capital entering
OMI has undergone long-term bear market consolidation, with early speculative tokens largely cleared out. Long-term capital optimistic about the digital collectibles sector continues to accumulate in batches.
The IP collectibles sector has many collector-type users who hold OMI to purchase collectibles and participate in platform activities, not short-term speculative traders. During market panic sell-offs, selling pressure is relatively limited, and a small amount of incremental capital can easily push the price higher against the trend. "Three-Coin Watch: Stopping the Decline Does Not Equal Recovery"
$ZEC remains around 1315 in the evening, almost unchanged from midday, but the decline over the past week has approached 17%. What is currently lacking is not a stop in the decline, but the strength of a rebound. 1300 can still be monitored, but it should not be prematurely assumed to be a solid bottom. If it breaks below and quickly rebounds, it indicates that buying interest remains; if it breaks down and the rebound is weak, expectations need to be lowered. The previous rise was rapid, and the recovery may not be as smooth, so there is no need to rush to talk about a return to strength for now.
$HYPE is currently around 87.85, slightly down from 88 at midday, and has not opened upward space. This fluctuation is insufficient to change the outlook; continue to wait for clearer signals. If it approaches 90 again, the key is whether it can hold above that level; surging up and then falling back only indicates that resistance remains there and does not count as strengthening.
$BICO rose from 0.0212 at midnight to 0.0223 in the afternoon, indeed recovering somewhat. But more important than how much it rose is whether it can continue. Next, watch whether a pullback will fall back to the midnight low; if someone takes over early, the recovery logic holds. If the gains are given back again, do not assume the next time will hold just because it bounced once before. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 "News is just a tool; the market is the real answer"
Non-farm payrolls positive? Don't rush to chase. News has always been a supporting actor to the market, sometimes just a smokescreen to hunt down leverage. After the short positions above are liquidated, BTC forms a small double top, and the short-term correction is likely not over. Focus on 80,000–82,000; holding this level is key for the next wave. ETH watches 2560–2610; if it holds, it can rebound, if lost, weakness continues. The market will get more complex ahead, don't be led blindly by data. What position are you currently holding?
$BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #美股探索代币化与全天候交易
For personal observation only, not investment advice.Trade Review: From Revenge Trading to the Awakening of Rational Position Holding
Today is a wonderful day, not only because the account turned positive, but also because of the return to a balanced mindset.
Yesterday, I was frustrated by losses from going long on SOON and STX, and the defeat made me spiral into a "the more I think, the angrier I get" emotional vortex. Driven by this mindset, my evening trades had a clear revenge trading tone—I directly reversed to short, trying to vent my emotions through the market's opposite movement.
However, the market is fair; it doesn't care about your emotions, only your logic. Fortunately, this time the judgment based on the weak market condition was correct. The short position on SOON experienced the expected drop overnight, and waking up this morning to see floating profits brought a sense of relief for recovering losses, but I quickly calmed down.
This experience taught me an important lesson:
- About holding positions: This time I must hold on. Not swayed by emotions, nor blindly adding positions in a rush to recover losses—this is the basic quality of a mature trader.
- About stop-loss: STX not falling further indicates that bullish support remains; decisively giving up shorting and exiting the market is itself a wise form of stop-loss.
- About targets: Although I am optimistic about SOON dropping to 0.2 in the long term, short-term operations must be cautious and step-by-step. The goal is to recover what was lost, but more importantly, to regain the rhythm of trading.
The market always offers opportunities; only by maintaining rationality can one remain undefeated amid volatility. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% SEC Custody Proposal Eases: Advisors Can "Hold" Crypto Assets on Behalf, Institutional Channels Expand
On October 1, the SEC released a 760-page crypto custody proposal, aiming to establish a dedicated regulatory framework. If there are no qualified custodians in the market, registered investment advisors and regulated funds may, under certain conditions, self-custody clients' crypto assets; state-chartered trust companies are also included in the list of qualified custodians. Atkins stated this opens a "compliance gateway that did not exist before" for institutions.
The key lies in the definition of "self-custody." Peirce emphasized that it is not retail investors holding private keys themselves, but advisors operating as custodians of client assets. Advisors taking this route must submit an independent internal control report within 6 months and update it annually thereafter.
The market warmed up accordingly. $BTC surged intraday to 87,000, the first time since September 23; currently around 85,500. Short-term support is at 84,500, resistance between 87,000-87,400. Some positions have stop-losses set below 84,000; those without positions may wait for a pullback to stabilize between 84,500-85,000 before considering entry. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat #Tensions persist in US-Iran situation, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves Once the non-farm data was released, risk appetite quickly cooled down, with $ZEC taking the hardest hit, breaking through the 1,300 level and dipping to 1,270 at one point during the session.
$BTC at 84,623. After pulling back from 87,239 to 83,826, it has temporarily stopped falling, but the rebound is weak. The 15-minute RSI has returned to 57, indicating marginally reduced selling pressure. Resistance for the rebound lies between 86,200-87,200, while support is first seen at 83,800, with 83,000 as a stronger defense line. Overall, this remains an oversold recovery and should not be considered a trend reversal.
$ETH at 2,661. It has not developed an independent rhythm, following BTC down from 2,777 to a low of 2,646, and is currently rebounding in sync. Resistance is clearly between 2,730-2,777, with 2,600 as the core support. Future elasticity will still be determined by BTC.
$ZEC at 1,312. The most volatile, it quickly dropped from 1,412 to 1,270 but rebounded relatively actively. RSI is approaching 70, showing short-term overheating signs. Resistance is between 1,360-1,412, with 1,270 as the last observation point below.
In short: After this non-farm impact, all three assets are only undergoing technical recovery, with no reversal signals appearing. Until resistance levels are broken, caution remains the main theme.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Funds have returned, but prices have not: $BTC and $ETH weaken simultaneously
Contract funds give an awkward signal: BTC open interest net inflow first withdrew then returned. From September 28 to 30, there was a net outflow of $245 million for three consecutive days, then from October 1 to 3, $562 million was reinjected. However, prices did not leverage this to reach new highs, indicating this money is more like trapped positions absorbed at high levels rather than new longs that can push the trend upward.
ETH is more direct. On October 3, there was a net outflow of $51 million, showing longs are exiting. The current price is 2680, performing weaker than BTC; on October 2, it surged intraday to 2779 but closed at 2667, with a long upper shadow exposing selling pressure above. The funding rate also dropped sharply from 0.0055% to 0.0015%, clearly showing a retreat in bullish sentiment.
Strategically, ETH tends to follow BTC in shorting. The 2720–2749 range is suitable for short orders, with a stop loss at 2790 and a target of 2634; 3 to 4 times leverage is sufficient. If BTC cannot break the previous high with volume, ETH’s rebound is very likely just a correction, not a reversal.
Risk warning: The above is only a market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 📉 Weak NFP, but $BTC still fell. Why?
The market quickly shifted from rate-cut hopes to concerns about inflation, oil, fiscal pressure, and higher long-term yields.
That pushed yields back up and weighed on gold, $BTC, and $ETH.
So the key isn’t just the jobs number—it’s where long-term rates go next. 👀
#BTC #ETH #Macro #Crypto
#NvidiaRecordHigh
#USCryptoTaxADAPTAct
#USCryptoTaxADAPTAct $MOVR has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things.
$MOVR is down 1.70% in 24 hours, currently priced at 2.082. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 61 and 26 respectively. Oversold conditions can trigger rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop; a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 19.64% away from the 1-hour support at 1.673 and about 0.48% away from resistance at 2.092. Putting these two distances together helps clarify which side requires more evidence. Looking only at price changes can easily mistake the space already traveled as space yet to begin.
The current 1-hour volume is about 1.43 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with activity still near normal. This means key levels need confirmation through continuity: touching, crossing, and holding are three different things and cannot be replaced by a single moment.
It’s easier to understand this market phase as equipment acceptance testing: running without load doesn’t count as completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to conclusions. Let the key levels provide results first, then discussing direction is more honest. Do you think oversold conditions are enough to change the rhythm, or must we wait for the structure to stop making new lows? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.🚨 BTC bulls, are you still this confident?
The market is giving off some pretty uncomfortable signals right now.
Treasury yields are sitting near multi-year highs, risk assets are under pressure, and crypto is struggling to hold its rebounds. The latest ETF data also shows a sharp cooling in demand compared with the previous week.
So I have to ask:
With this kind of macro environment, what exactly is supposed to drive the next big BTC rally?
#DailyOrbit Nonfarm payrolls fell far short of expectations, and crypto declined instead of rising. The reason behind this is not a single negative factor but a shift in pricing logic.
First, the data itself is initially "discounted." The contradiction between new jobs and the unemployment rate, combined with revisions, measurement methods, and survey response rates, makes the market reluctant to treat a single month's data as a trend. Trust discount rises, and capital tends to reduce risk first.
Second, bad news is no longer good news. Previously, weak employment → rate cut expectations → risk assets rise; now the market fears that weakening employment will transmit to consumption, earnings, and credit. If AI capital expenditure cannot continue to support, recession trades will outweigh rate cut trades, and crypto, as a high beta asset, will be reduced first.
Third, the chip structure amplifies volatility. Before the data, long positions and spot bets were crowded; after the announcement, expectations were disappointed, triggering profit-taking, stop-losses, and leveraged liquidations, with market makers pressing prices down to shake out positions. The plunge looks more like a liquidity squeeze rather than a long-term trend reversal.
The mid-term bullish structure is not yet broken. $BTC 83k-85k remains strong support, $ETH pullbacks can be observed in batches, and smaller caps like $ZEC are more volatile, requiring position control.
⚠️This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice $BTC $ETH $ZEC #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm #Tensions persist in US-Iran situation, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves $BTC Bitcoin hit a low of 83800 last night, dropping all the way down from 87200, a drop of over three thousand points
I think the rebound is almost over, and I want to recover what I lost
The current market rebound is very weak, it should be a fluctuating downward trend. The 85000-85500 range should be the divergence high point for the decline, making this a good choice
Below, I see the 82500-83000 range; with this drop, it's necessary to reduce positions
$ETH Ethereum fell much harder than Bitcoin yesterday, dropping directly from around 2770 to 2650, a drop of over a hundred points
Nearly a five percent drop, and the rebound is weaker compared to Bitcoin, only bouncing back to around 2680. I believe it cannot break through the 2700 consolidation high
Next, it may still follow a downward trend, heading to the 2630-2600 range. The drop is large, and the subsequent decline will be even more severe $ZRO is going crazy, but this rally feels overheated. After nearly two weeks of mostly green candles, the upside momentum looks stretched. The cross-chain and buyback narratives are already heavily priced in, so I’m watching for a pullback rather than chasing the pump.
I’m keeping my position small and looking for a short setup if momentum starts to fade. #ZRO #ZEC #G7OilReserveRelease
#BTCETHETFOutflows #NvidiaRecordHigh DOGE
Dogecoin welcomes significant positive progress!
The US compliant market officially launches DOGE perpetual contracts, with Kalshi introducing CFTC-regulated DOGE perpetual futures. Domestic US users can participate in DOGE leveraged trading through compliant channels.
Unlike traditional futures with expiration dates, perpetual contracts have no expiry or delivery and can continuously track DOGE spot price fluctuations.
Key highlights:
✅ Price anchored to the DOGEUSD_RTI index by CF Benchmarks as the benchmark;
✅ Supports 24/7 continuous trading;
✅ This is also the first compliant DOGE perpetual trading product launched in the US market. $DOGE $BTC Brothers, the short sellers have finally been rewarded this round!
$ZEC dropped all the way from 1695 to around 1303, and my short position has finally crawled out of the deep water and fire.
Looking at these numbers now, it's a bit hard to believe:
ZEC short position
Opening average price: 1497.67
Latest transaction price: 1303.95
Profit: +646.97%
You know, when ZEC was crazily surging last week, I was really panicking.
That surge to 1695 made my palms sweat, but in the end, I didn’t stop loss; instead, I kept adding to my short position, gradually raising the average short price.
Looking back now, luckily I didn’t cut it directly, or else I would have lost big this time.
After enduring for so long, the shorts finally got some meat.
Congrats to the short brothers still holding on, we made it out alive this round!
But honestly, contracts are really thrilling; once the market moves against you, profits can instantly turn into losses.
The charm of contracts is: either liquidation or getting rich.
This time I held on, but who knows if I’ll be so lucky next time.
How many ZEC shorts are still out there? Gather in the comments!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 At 11 PM on Saturday night, the tokenized TSLA on-chain was still listed at $371. Nasdaq had been closed for over six hours.
Who set this $371?
The price of native assets is grown from trading. The price of RWA is imported. Pools can quote, but a few tens of thousands of dollars can easily distort a thin pool, so it can't be used as a basis for collateral and liquidation.
Oracle doesn't just deliver a number; it delivers a trust chain: multiple data sources, multiple nodes, no one can unilaterally decide the price you see. If one number is wrong, the collateral ratio, borrowing, and forced liquidation will all be wrong together.
Ondo and Robinhood Chain both embed dividends and stock splits into the same on-chain price. LINK in this line doesn't manage price fluctuations but how real-world quotes enter risk control.
Reference price, transaction price, risk price — currently, these are still one-way.
Do you think you should trust Nasdaq's last price at night, or the trades forming on-chain?
#ondo #TSLA I still see you actively taking instant positions in altcoins, while staying out of leveraged positions.
I only trade futures accounts for $BTC $ETH and some other major coins, which have remained stagnant over the past few weeks. Hence, I said the updates.
I believe that if BTC experiences another upward wave, many altcoins will rise strongly, so I focus more on that instead of draining my energy and capital in day trading.The recent approach to opening orders has actually become simpler: if I don't understand it, I don't trade; I'll enter when there's an opportunity, no FOMO, and definitely no chasing highs or panic selling.
Everyone should keep a steady mindset! I've emphasized this many times already—don't scare yourself, and don't overturn all your previous judgments just because of one drop. Do what you believe is right, and let the market decide how the trend goes.
Yesterday, $SAND was quite ridiculous, squeezing shorts all the way, pumping for most of the day, with funding fees maxed out, eventually turning into once every 4 hours. Seeing it go so crazy, I actually didn't dare to enter because chasing at this level can easily get you taught a lesson with even a slight pullback.
Although it has pulled back a bit now, the overall level is still relatively high, so I'm prepared to keep observing. If a suitable position appears, I'll consider entering.
$CAP also had a taste yesterday; the process was really intense. I almost didn't get out in time, but luckily I withdrew quickly at the end, or else I would have taken a harsh beating from the market again.
However, if this coin surges again later, I'll continue looking for short opportunities. Take what you can, and if you can't, it's okay—no need to mess up your rhythm for a few moves.
As for $ZEC, I don't want to say much anymore.
I've been stuck with this one for a month. At least it hasn't continued to surge wildly, but I have a simple wish: when will it drop below 1000 so I can finally end this month's unfortunate tie...
In the end, trading teaches you that the real difficulty isn't finding opportunities but learning to wait.
No chasing, no rushing, no reckless orders; keep your account intact, and opportunities will naturally come. 😂 WHY TREASURY BUYBACKS MATTER FOR $BTC
The U.S. Treasury can buy back existing government debt to help improve liquidity and market functioning.
It doesn’t directly mean “BTC goes up.”
But if Treasury operations help ease stress in bond markets and financial conditions become more supportive, risk assets like Bitcoin can benefit.
Liquidity is the real signal to watch. 👀₿📊
#DailyOrbit Last night's nonfarm payroll market was very unusual: the data was significantly negative, and after BTC and gold surged, they instead fell back.
Many people don't understand; there is only one core reason: the market trading logic has switched.
1. Two layers of market logic
1) Just after the data release
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations.
The market interpreted this short-term as economic weakening and easing rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields plunged, and BTC surged briefly accordingly.
2) After the U.S. stock market opened, the logic reversed
Funds stopped betting on short-term rate cuts and shifted to trading inflation resilience + fiscal deficit + strong crude oil.
The market worries about persistently high long-term inflation, long bonds were sold off, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, directly suppressing the market, causing BTC and gold to surge then fall back.
2. Current price 84,900; liquidation and margin call reference points
⚖️ Concentrated long liquidation zone (below)
Core level: 82,700 (down 2.5%)
A large amount of high-leverage long positions are stacked very close; breaking below easily triggers cascading long liquidations.
Secondary supports: 81,000, 76,100
⚖️ Concentrated short liquidation zone (above)
Core level: 88,000 (up 3.75%)
A large number of short positions are concentrated; breaking above triggers short squeezes and rapid rallies.
Secondary resistances: 88,900, 93,100
3. Market summary
Compared to yesterday, the overall liquidation scale has slightly decreased, and leverage is more concentrated.
Current market characteristics:
Downside space is smaller, making it easier to shake out longs; once volume surges upward, shorts will be concentratedly liquidated, and the rebound will be very rapid.
With the nonfarm data settled and chaotic oscillation ended, the next market movement fully depends on breakthroughs at the critical long-short liquidation points!A little past 2 a.m., when I should be sleeping, I got a bit fired up checking $ADA's market.
A major holder dumped 90 million tokens, contract positions dropped another 9%, and volume shrank to about 60% of usual. The price is stuck around 0.24. The strangest thing is this—not a crash, but no one is buying. Sellers can't push it down, buyers aren't stepping in, and the order book is as thin as paper.
I'm familiar with this kind of market, it's the prelude to a slow decline. For a real reversal, volume has to pick up first; otherwise, all talk is pointless. I won't move my small position for now, waiting for it to show its hand. Below 0.25, I won't say a word.
Going to sleep now, still have to watch the non-farm payrolls tomorrow. $ADA $SUI To be honest, I myself find it surprising that this trade has lasted until now; luck played a significant part.
Last night at dawn, I was watching SUI; it couldn't break upward, volume didn't keep up, and support was insufficient. I judged it to be a strong bull trap and signaled a high short.
Opened a short at 1.1775, ground down to 1.1708, floating profit +28.87%, this gain feels good.
Closed 80% first, kept 20% to protect and move the cost basis, letting the profit run on further downside, and on any rebound, don't give back profits.
The market is waited out, profits are held onto. Don't get greedy with gains, don't despair on pullbacks. If you haven't entered, don't chase shorts; wait for the next rebound under pressure, I will alert immediately.
$ETH $DOGE 幣圈最危險的四個字：「看起來很穩。」 看到FHE有17% APY，第一反應不是「趕快上車」，而是先問一句：這17%到底是誰付的？ 如果我們把短期收益放到一邊，FHE真正值得長期關注的地方，其實是它正在碰一個很大的未來敘事：FHE × AI Agent × Privacy × RWA × DeFi。 傳統區塊鏈最大的尷尬之一，就是「透明」。資產、交易、資料都可以驗證，但商業策略、AI決策、機密資料如果全部攤在陽光下，企業反而不敢真正使用。 FHE，也就是全同態加密，想解決的事情很有意思：資料可以保持加密，卻仍然能進行計算。 簡單講，ZK比較像：「我證明我做對了，但不告訴你答案。」 FHE更像：「資料你看不到，但我還是可以拿它來算。」這對未來AI Agent可能非常重要。 想像一下，未來AI Agent可以自己購買資料、租GPU、支付服務、執行交易，而且整個過程不需要把自己的策略與敏感資料全部公開。 這時候，FHE就不只是「隱私概念」，而可能變成AI經濟的一層基礎設施。 而圖中的 FCN－FHE Consensus、FDN－FHE Decryption，也讓我更想研究它背後的節點、驗證、收$ZEC's ETF has finally shown an unattractive signal: the first weekly net outflow since its launch, with about $93.6 million withdrawn this week, whereas two weeks ago there was a single-week net inflow of $98.2 million. Meanwhile, $ZEC has dropped from a previous high of around $1690 to near $1300, a decline of about 17.5% in just one week.
The truly interesting point is not that the ETF is flowing out, but that just as the privacy narrative was heating up, institutional money started pulling out.
Observation points: 1300 is the first line of defense, the previous high of 1690 is trend resistance, and only by reclaiming above 1500 can concerns about high-level capital outflows be alleviated.
Direction: short-term weakness, first watch if 1300 can hold; if the ETF continues to have consecutive outflows, the previously strong narrative will need to be repriced. BTC/USDT Analysis
🔥 BTC is consolidating around $84.5K after the recent rejection from $87K. Short-term momentum is mixed, with $83.2K–$83.5K acting as an important support zone.
Key Levels:
🟢 Support: $83.2K / $81.9K
🔴 Resistance: $85.2K / $86.5K–$87K
🎯 Break above $87K → bullish continuation setup
⚠️ Lose $83.2K → deeper pullback risk
BTC is at a decision zone. Watch the breakout — volatility could expand fast.
#DailyOrbit In the past, when I invested in cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, I always felt it was like a hot potato.
On the very first day after buying, I would start thinking about when to sell.
If it rose 5%, I wanted to sell.
If it rose 10%, I was afraid it would fall back, so I wanted to sell.
If it dropped 10%, I wanted to sell even more.
Sometimes, I would stare at the numbers in my account, refreshing over and over again.
Later, I realized that many people don’t lose money because they misread the market, but because they simply can’t hold on to what they believe in.
I was once very curious about one question:
How does someone like Justin Sun manage to hold onto Bitcoin?
From a few hundred dollars, to a few thousand, and then to huge fluctuations later on.
If you only look at the price, it’s hard for me to imagine what kind of mental strength a person must have to stick to their judgment through repeated intense rises and falls.
Later, when I read about his experiences and investment philosophy, I slowly realized:
He wasn’t without fear either.
He would feel anxious when prices plummeted.
He would doubt himself when his account was losing money.
He even had thoughts like "Should I just sell it?"
What truly makes a person persist is not the absence of fear.
It’s that behind his fear, there is something else—
Faith. 在杠杆交易里，一个交易者爆仓，并不是“钱直接全部给了交易所”。真正受益的人要看交易结构，但通常有几类。 第一类，也是最直接的，是站在相反方向并且最终盈利的交易者。比如你用 100 倍杠杆做多 BTC，价格快速下跌触发强平。强平系统会把你的多头仓位卖出，相当于市场里有人接走这些卖单。此前做空并在下跌中获利的人，本质上获得了价格转移带来的利润。期货是接近零和结构：不考虑手续费时，一方的交易亏损通常对应其他参与者的交易盈利。 第二类是交易所。交易所通常不需要赌方向，它更喜欢的是“大家不断交易”。不论你赚钱还是亏钱，它都可能收取开仓手续费、平仓手续费、强平手续费，以及其他交易相关费用。有些交易所的强平费用还会进入保险基金。因此，对交易所来说，真正长期有价值的通常不是某一个人爆仓，而是高杠杆 + 高频换手 + 大量强平产生的持续交易量。 第三类很重要：做市商和大型流动性提供者。当大量散户同时爆仓时，市场会产生强制订单。比如大量多头爆仓： > 多头爆仓 → 强制卖出 → 价格进一步下降 → 更多多头达到强平价 → 更多强制卖出。 这就是常说的 Liquidation Cascade（连环清算）。 $SAND at $0.078 — Are You Really Going to Chase This Rally? $SAND has nearly doubled from $0.044 to $0.078 in just two days. Three major South Korean exchanges have reportedly lifted their trading warnings, while trading volume exploded from roughly $20 million to $1 billion. But here's the key question: Is this the beginning of a genuine metaverse revival, or simply an event-driven rally fueled by short covering and speculative money? A sharp rally doesn't automatically mean a sustainable uptreData night shows a big bullish candlestick—real breakout or just a false spark?
Nonfarm payrolls landed with only 29,000 new jobs added, expected was 90,000—this isn’t a surprise miss, it’s a freeze. Unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, the probability of an October rate hike dropped sharply from 29% to 17%, and the two-year US Treasury yield plunged 10 basis points.
The market is more honest than anyone. Bitcoin surged from 84,000 to 87,239 in one move, the 85,200 resistance level that had been grinding for three days overnight turned into a floor beneath. Ethereum is at 2,749, SOL rose nearly 5%. After three days of consolidation, the breakout is big right from the open.
But let’s pour cold water on this. Some economists point out that the 29,000 figure may be a seasonal adjustment distortion, not a real employment collapse. If it gets revised back next month, those chasing longs tonight will get hit again.
Looking ahead, an October rate hike is basically off the table, and December is uncertain. Once rates ease, valuations suppressed for a month can rebound, and the Q4 liquidity story will have something to talk about. Next week’s CPI is the final exam.
Don’t call the bull market back tonight. One big bullish candlestick changes sentiment; three big bullish candlesticks change the trend. Whether this is a real breakout or just a false spark from data night, the market will soon give the answer.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 📉 Four coins late Saturday night: all green, who's holding strong?
$BTC 84814, down 0.60%, retraced from 86868 back to 84800. The surge from the non-farm payrolls was given back in one day, ETF outflows continue, 85000 has turned from support back to resistance. Weekend liquidity is thin, 84000 is the next barrier, next week's opening will clarify the direction.
$HYPE 88.791, down 1.26%, dropped from 90.8 back to 88.8. After happily reclaiming 90 yesterday, it was pushed back today. The foundation of 97% protocol revenue buyback remains, but 90 is indeed a strong resistance. 88 was previous support; holding it means consolidation, breaking it leads back to 85.
$ASTER 0.711, down 3.87%, fell from 0.7488 back to 0.711. Previously rose 8% with advice not to chase, now fully retraced. Decentralized perpetual contract DEX, 0.7 is a psychological level; holding it means consolidation, breaking it leads back to 0.65.
$ENA 0.23299, down 4.49%, the worst performer among the four. Rose 7% a couple of days ago with advice not to chase, now fully retraced and even at a loss. The yield logic remains unchanged but funds are flowing out from altcoins, breaking 0.23 targets 0.22, don't bottom-fish.
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 Weak NFP.
Only 29K jobs added.
Unemployment at 4.2%.
Now BTC has another macro variable to digest.
But the real question is:
Will this create sustained buying or just a short-term reaction?
The first candle doesn't always tell the whole story.
What are you watching?
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoConclusion first: $SAND surged from 0.044 to 0.083 (+89%) within 36 hours, but today's first 4H candle only had 42M volume, and the high point has already dropped over 12%.
Volume tells the truth: the 4H candle that ignited the rally from 10-02 had 55M volume, the 4H candle that pushed to 0.082 on 10-03 morning had 189M volume, but today's early morning 4H candle only has 42M, a quarter of the peak. A volume contraction during a pullback usually means profit-taking, not distribution — the real danger is a volume-driven decline.
Another data point: funding rate is -0.004%. Despite three consecutive days of gains, the funding rate remains slightly bearish, indicating bulls are not crowded; the pullback looks more like a shakeout than a bull stampede.
Note: Yesterday the metaverse sector collectively rallied, today $ENJ has been sideways, while SAND is moving independently. When sector heat fades, the sustainability of an individual stock's independent move is questionable.
Reference levels: 0.071–0.073 is the recent low; if broken, watch the 0.062–0.068 gap; above, 0.078 is short-term resistance, and a volume breakout could push to the previous high at 0.083 and beyond.
What do you think $SAND can reach this time? Can it hold 0.071? [Old Leek Observation]
The decentralized function of $ICP's SNS application is now live.
Simply put: Previously, a Web3 application’s code might be on-chain, but the core control could still be held by the project team.
Now developers can hand over application control to the user DAO. Upgrades, treasury management, and parameter adjustments can all be done through on-chain governance. Even more interestingly, ICP’s recent on-chain data is trending upward. Last week, network fee revenue was about $85,000, and on September 24, the network processed 138.9 million transactions in a single day.
And ICP’s price is still around $3.29.
Once the application control is truly handed over to the DAO, whether ICP can continue to grow its on-chain usage is the key question. If transaction volume and on-chain data both expand, the short-term resistance at $3.38 is worth watching.
Entry: $3.20–$3.30
Take profit: $3.45 / $3.65 / $3.90 / $4.20 / $4.60
Stop loss: $3.08
The real highlight for ICP this time isn’t another AI story.
It’s that it’s starting to make “application decentralization” a true infrastructure.