wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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The busiest place on weekends is always the altcoin zone. When the main market is flat, a bunch of people get bored and dive into various small coins looking for excitement, taking screenshots to share in groups after a 30% pump, then playing dead after a 40% dump. Let me remind you of an old saying: altcoins are a negative-sum game. After deducting funding fees, spreads, and spikes, the vast majority lose money in the long run here; the few wins only make you more reluctant to leave. The real issue isn’t whether you can catch a double, but whether you can hold on after catching it, and whether you can escape when losing. These past two days, $ETH and $SOL have been weaker than $BTC, and altcoins fall with the market rather than rise with it. Betting on a rebound in this structure is like raising the stakes at a negative-sum table. If you’re bored, leave the table; itchy hands are the most expensive emotion at this table.
Keep an extra eye on South Korea tonight for crypto. Nomura maintains its view: the Bank of Korea is very likely to raise interest rates in November, with the terminal rate reaching 3.5. Many people think global central banks are competing to see who cuts rates first, but the reality is more complex. The Korean won is strengthening, inflation is sticky, and on this side of Asia, tightening is still underway. What does this mean? The global liquidity withdrawal is not just a Federal Reserve issue; it's happening piece by piece across regions. A big part of the confidence behind risk assets' rise over the past two years comes from "too much money with nowhere to go." When multiple economies simultaneously turn the faucet tighter, the first to suffer are always the most overvalued and highly leveraged assets. Next week, everyone is waiting for the Fed's rate decision, but the real underlying theme is: the era of cheap money is gradually exiting, step by step. $BTC
Elon Musk is making statements again: a large amount of computing power will remain stranded in those half-finished data centers. When this comes from him, it carries a different weight—he is one of the people investing heavily in building computing power himself. Sellers of shovels and gold miners are starting to mention the word "oversupply," and you should understand that the narrative of this round of AI capital expenditure is shifting from "infinite demand" to "inventory digestion." The most expensive thing in the market has never been valuation, but narrative; once the narrative loosens, what gets hit is not the fundamentals but imagination. Stop focusing on Nvidia's one-point rise or fall today; look up and see the entire chain—from chips to storage to data centers—whose orders are real demand and whose are just moving from one hand to the other. This is far more important than the index dropping a few points on any given day. $BTC in this environment is just a follower; don't expect it to strengthen independently.
Is the memory chip sector also going long? These past couple of days, I have indeed placed some small bets on oversold rebounds in storage stocks. Some people immediately want to screenshot and shout "face slap," but hold on. In the logic of low-frequency large bets, there are two types of positions: one is a conviction position, where you are confident in the direction and dare to hold heavy and resist; the other is a probing position, where if the odds are good, you place a small bet and immediately admit if wrong. The storage sector was hit hard this round, so there is room for a short-term oversold recovery, but I am very clear in my mind that this is a rebound, not a reversal. The big picture of AI deflating the bubble hasn't changed, and one rebound won't change the fact that valuations need to be squeezed. So I only give it a small bet and a narrow window. Once Hynix's earnings report comes out next week, the direction will be set. Until then, I won't treat it as a conviction position to hold. Being bearish and going long are never contradictory; not distinguishing between conviction and probing positions is the root cause of most people's losses. $MU
There's a detail in today's market that's more valuable than the price changes themselves: $BTC only dropped just over one percent, while $ETH and $SOL both fell by more than two percent.
This is no coincidence. Altcoins compared to mainstream coins are essentially leveraged beta: they rise more enthusiastically when the market goes up, and fall more sharply when it goes down. Because they have smaller market caps and lack independent intrinsic value, they rely entirely on risk appetite to stay afloat. When the tide of risk appetite recedes, altcoins are always the first to be stranded.
Holding heavy positions in altcoins during a bear market is like secretly adding invisible leverage without officially opening a margin. To survive in this environment, you need to shift your position mindset from "betting on volatility" to "preserving capital."
What is the ratio of altcoins to mainstream coins in your current holdings?
After a week of decline, the most frequently asked question behind the scenes is still: Is it the bottom yet? Can I buy now?
Every time, I counter-question: Why do you have to hold a position right now? Finding the bottom is mostly not about analysis, but about impatience.
The bottom in a bear market is never a certain price, but the moment when sentiment is completely dead, and even those asking "Should I buy?" are too lazy to ask anymore. The fact that everyone is asking about the bottom now precisely shows that sentiment is still hot and people haven't sold enough yet. True hunters sit and wait for prey to come into range, not chase after prey all over the place.
$BTC never lacks opportunities; what’s lacking is your ability to keep your hands steady.
Honestly, haven’t you also been tempted to buy a bit this week?
Everyone is focused on the AI bubble, but few are looking up at the burning pot of European finances.
The UK Chancellor wants to add tens of billions of pounds in defense spending to the budget, and Moody's just downgraded France's rating outlook a few days ago. One is leveraging up to expand military spending, the other is signaling a yellow light on finances, both pointing to the same thing: developed countries are expanding fiscal spending and aggressively issuing government debt.
The greater the supply of government bonds, the harder it is for long-term interest rates to truly come down. And interest rates are the gravitational force over all high-valuation assets, with things like $BTC, which are priced based on liquidity, taking the hardest hit. Don't just focus on how much Nvidia fell today; the real slow knife is hidden in the bond market.
Do you think this round of interest rates has peaked, or is it just halftime?
The most dangerous aspect of this kind of market is not the wild ups and downs, but the lack of emotion.
$BTC is hovering around eighty thousand, funding rates are only mildly positive, and Coinbase still shows a slight discount. Neither the bulls nor the bears are giving extreme signals. Many people can't stand this lukewarm situation; their hands start itching, buying a bit today, selling a bit tomorrow. After a week, the direction was actually guessed right, but all profits were worn down by the back-and-forth trading.
My approach is the exact opposite: a market without emotion is a market that tells you to do nothing. The truly valuable catalysts are set for next week. The more you move now, the less optimal your position and mindset will be when the real signals arrive.
Have you also been repeatedly entering and exiting in this stagnant water lately?
A detail in today's market is more informative than the overall market rise and fall: $ETH dropped more than two points, $SOL also dropped more than two points, while $BTC only dropped just over one point. Altcoins are being crushed harder than BTC.
This is not random. There is a rule in bear markets: the further back, the more leveraged, and the more narrative-supported the asset is, the faster it falls. When funds retract, they pull from the outermost circle inward, cutting meme coins and small altcoins first, then large altcoins like ETH and SOL, and finally BTC.
So don't just watch BTC's candlestick charts to judge risk appetite. The real thermometer is the strength of altcoins relative to BTC. Right now, this thermometer reads: money is shrinking inward, not expanding outward.
If you want to catch a rebound, first clearly see which circle you are standing in.
Next week’s market has two key events: the Federal Reserve meeting and Hynix’s earnings report. Both will conclude midweek, and both are binary events where "once the result is out, the direction is set."
Anyone who plays cards knows this principle: if the hole cards haven’t been revealed by the river and you can’t calculate the odds, don’t push all your chips in. Being fully invested before a binary event is essentially going all in without seeing the cards clearly; winning is luck, losing is just a matter of time.
So I won’t be loading up my position this weekend. It’s not that I lack an opinion — overall, I’m cautious on direction this week — but I know that every additional position I add now is a bet on something I can’t calculate, it’s a gamble on the outcome.
True edge isn’t about playing every hand; it’s about betting big only when the odds are in your favor. The rest of the time, keep your hand down. $BTC
