陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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1. Surprisingly, the Korean stocks in the US market didn't hit a circuit breaker today and even closed slightly higher; the US stocks also started to turn up in the afternoon;
2. Most of the "semiconductors" have formed a pattern similar to Micron. In my view, the third phase of the decline pattern is already complete. I would rather believe that the third part of the correction is nearly finished, rather than only the first part being done (that would be too scary);
3. After a sharp rise or a sharp fall reaches its peak or bottom, it is often followed by intense volatility;
A recent question for thought:
Will the main task of the AI theme track in the next phase still be hardware like memory or optics? If not, which direction will it switch to? If it switches, will it be a big opportunity like memory or optics (in terms of gains)?
The US stock market has plummeted these days, AI stocks have dropped sharply, but $BTC actually looks quite poised;
However, crypto friends in the coin circle, don't mock those noble US stock traders just because they once ridiculed us crypto traders.
After all, according to investigations in Guilin, those who mocked the crypto bear market during the US stock bull market were mostly scammers, meaning they used to trade crypto themselves, which in old slang is called "double agents";
And although their words can sometimes be harsh, they are indeed a group of doers. They jump into US stocks during the bull market and return to crypto to BUILD during the crypto bull market, as if they have endless ammunition. What kind of behavior is this? This is the behavior of Lei Feng! They are the firefighters of the new era!
We should not mock a group of living Lei Fengs when the market is so frustrating.
Many worry that the US stock market crash will drag down crypto. What I want to say is:
1. It's not impossible, but at the 80,000 level, I also see the firm will of the crypto main force;
2. The underlying logic of financial markets is buy high, sell low. Is Bitcoin at 80,000 very high? In other words, do you think Bitcoin at 25,000 in 2023 was expensive?
3. Just pursue vague correctness. Look at the period from Bitcoin's lowest point on July 1, 2026, to the stage high on September 21, 2026. There are 82 daily candlesticks in total, but only 5 of them are real upward moves.
If you only want to avoid getting hit and just want to enjoy the sweet, what nonsense are you thinking about?
1. The market has once again reached a time when gold is everywhere;
2. Here comes another opportunity for you, did you buy this time?
3. Risk and reward are proportional, rises and falls share the same source, volatility;
4. In a meat grinder market, don’t use leverage, don’t set tight stop losses;
Finally, repeat an old saying: now is not the time to panic, but the time to calculate how much loss you can bear, then grit your teeth and enter the market.
As for those who went all in from over 60,000 (using Bitcoin as an example)? Of course, there’s nothing to do, just think about your confident self who swore to hold until 180,000 this round—can’t handle this level of volatility?
Remember, declines are also part of the rise.
Think about it, if that day I hadn't cut my losses on Old Mantou, I might have held the position, might have done T trades back and forth, might have continued to add to my position, might have checked Micron, SanDisk, Intel to see if they could rebound more than Old Mantou, and then gotten stuck in the semiconductor meat grinder unable to pull myself out.
Fortunately, that day I cut my losses, deleted all semiconductors from my watchlist, didn't even look at them, so I didn't touch them at all.
This is the meaning of cutting losses.
陈桂林谈交易
$LITE cut losses.
I know I most likely cut losses at the bottom, or at least close to the absolute bottom;
but I still cut losses. Not cutting losses means no discipline, and not cutting losses also affects mentality.
Maybe the fate of this position was already sealed the moment I decided to switch it from spot to USDT-margined contracts!
Since the drop started, the overall position has only retraced 10%, which is actually pretty good.
This old $LITE thing didn’t lose much money, but this back and forth has really disgusted me a bit;
So, those who disturb my resolve, be cut down!
Today this big circle is so tough it feels unfamiliar to me. Normally, Bitcoin moves three points, but it should start at least 6 points!
Looking horizontally at gold, silver, oil, crypto, and semiconductors, the cycle is very important, especially the cycle they themselves are in. The performance difference between strong and weak cycles is like heaven and earth.
But semiconductor, don't kill it damn it, shouldn't wave C be a back-and-forth grind? You killed it scarier than wave A, what's the meaning of that?!
