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Don’t get carried away by this bullish candle—it could be a “gift” from the bears, not a confirmed bottom from the bulls.
Many traders immediately call for a reversal at the first sign of strength, but the underlying data tells a different story.
The main driver behind BTC’s recent rebound appears to be a large-scale short squeeze, with more than $50 million in short positions liquidated. That looks more like a forced-covering rally than genuine spot buying driving sustained demand.
Liquidity conditions also remain weak. ETFs were still experiencing net outflows on Monday, while capital continues flowing toward tokenized U.S. stocks and the broader RWA sector. With limited fresh liquidity, weak volume, and little follow-through, the current move could simply be short covering creating the appearance of a breakout.
Staying cautious here isn’t being bearish for the sake of it—it’s about respecting market structure.
Without meaningful new capital entering, BTC may struggle to decisively clear the $64K–$65K resistance zone, leaving the latest bounce vulnerable to another rejection.
The real test is whether bulls can bring in fresh liquidity—not whether shorts can be squeezed.
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