#GoldmanSeesNoSeptHike
About GoldmanSeesNoSeptHike
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in an Aug 16 note that a September Fed rate hike is very unlikely, citing falling retail sales, softer employment and cooling inflation. July retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, CPI and PPI both eased, and July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped by 23,000. Reports put market-implied odds of a September hold at about 69%. A hold is now the base case, but coming jobs and inflation data could still reset rate expectations.
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GoldmanSeesNoSeptHike المنشورات الشائعة
NOW: Emerging-market currencies have hit a record high as cooling Fed rate hike bets fuel demand for risk assets.
$BSB
A September Fed hold may be the base case, but the more important signal is why that view has strengthened. July retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000, and both CPI and PPI eased. Together, those readings point to softer demand, employment and inflation rather than one isolated weak print.
With market-implied odds of a hold near 69%, conviction is meaningful but not settled. My read: incoming jobs and inflation data now matter less for confirming the consensus than for testing how quickly it could unravel.
#GoldmanSeesNoSeptHike
